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Happy Summer Movie Season. Play the summer game.

sfran43

Weekend Thread: Weekend Actuals - John Wick: Chapter 3 $56.82M | Avengers Endgame $29.97M | Detective Pikachu $25.10M

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7 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

20

14.5

11

14.5M for EG and 11M for Pika i assume?

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1 minute ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

20

14.5

11

If this isn't a typo, :ohmygod::ohmygod::ohmygod:

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32 minutes ago, baumer said:

As so many have mentioned already, EG didn't just break the OW record, it fucking tortured it, hung it, revived it so it could draw and quarter it, cut off it's balls, removed its eyeballs with a dull spoon and then ate it raw and spit it out.  100 million dollar increase from an already insane OW is just ridiculous.  So to see it have legs like Civil War instead of Avengers, isn't alarming, surprising, concerning or jarring.  Just because we all think we have a grasp of the box office, doesn't mean we actually do.  Some of us have been dissecting the minutia of the BO for more than 25 years and still we are fed big poop sandwiches once in a while.  

 

Did I think the legs on this would be closer to 2.6 than 2.4?  Yep, I did.  I thought it would get to 900 but not pass TFA.  But when you satisfy that much upfront demand and when people are seeing your film 3 times in three days, you really have nowhere to go but down.  So the film is not having poor wom and the legs are bad in a purely literal sense, but if you dig a little deeper and dream a little bigger darling, you'll see that the film is behaving perhaps in the only way it possibly could. 

This right here is what detached reasonable reason sounds like... 25 years huh? Same.... TTVOMJ

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28 minutes ago, baumer said:

As so many have mentioned already, EG didn't just break the OW record, it fucking tortured it, hung it, revived it so it could draw and quarter it, cut off it's balls, removed its eyeballs with a dull spoon and then ate it raw and spit it out.  100 million dollar increase from an already insane OW is just ridiculous.  So to see it have legs like Civil War instead of Avengers, isn't alarming, surprising, concerning or jarring.  Just because we all think we have a grasp of the box office, doesn't mean we actually do.  Some of us have been dissecting the minutia of the BO for more than 25 years and still we are fed big poop sandwiches once in a while.  

 

Did I think the legs on this would be closer to 2.6 than 2.4?  Yep, I did.  I thought it would get to 900 but not pass TFA.  But when you satisfy that much upfront demand and when people are seeing your film 3 times in three days, you really have nowhere to go but down.  So the film is not having poor wom and the legs are bad in a purely literal sense, but if you dig a little deeper and dream a little bigger darling, you'll see that the film is behaving perhaps in the only way it possibly could. 

I think the thing that contributes to these meltdowns about a movies legs or opening in case of Pika is the unreasonably high expectations/predictions some people make or have after a certain number. Instead of looking at the whole picture, they take it and choose what piece to analyse to come to a ridiculous prediction or expectation for that movie. 

 

People in here were throwing around a billion in the domestic market before even waiting for the rest of the week or the 2nd weekend like a billion in NA was a nothing feat. So what ever that movie made after that day or the weekend will only be disappointing because of how highly unlikely their predictions were to begin with. 

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

20

14.5

11

If they hold, those are jumps off true Friday of 

JW3 20%ish

Endgame 97%

Pika 76%

 

Week-over-week Saturday drops would be...

Endgame (-47%)

Pika (-46%)

Edited by TwoMisfits

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3 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

20

14.5

11

 

What numbers are these?  You aren't seriously saying that EG is going to increase 100% today, are you?

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Me: Don't.

@Charlie Jatinder: What?

Me: Don't give me hope.

Charlie: I'm sorry I couldn't give it to you sooner.

 

This is what's playing out for me right now in regards to that EG Saturday number.

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5 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

20

14.5

11

Come on that's like 95%-96% increase if that's for EG, and it has no right jumping that high. 

I think the 11m makes much more sense than this. Which is 48% increase. 

 

Has any MCU movie ever jumped that high before. Over 90% on a Saturday.

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2 minutes ago, nguyenkhoi282 said:

14.5M for EG and 11M for Pika i assume?

Omg... i thought JW3 friday estimate "armageddonly" went down along with saturday and sunday... then i realized that was endgame and pika.. phew... /heartattack followed by giant sigh of relief.. TTVOMJ

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Excellent increases. So Avengers increased almost 100%. Sounds too good to be true. JW3 looks like grossing high 50s.

I would love all of those. DP awesome 75% bump. 96% for EG and JW3 jumps over 20% on true Friday. I will wait for actuals to be excited.

 

Hell gimme 90% for EG I'm not greedy :D

 

Edited by cdsacken

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44 minutes ago, ZattMurdock said:

Also, LMFAO at someone suggesting that I find someone that hasn’t seeing any other Marvel Studios film ever. This thing has 21 films prior to this, we have internet, cable, social media, Netflix, piracy,etc. The only way for someone have this as his/her first film is if (s)he was in a coma.

 

Seeing some superhero films and sawing Endgame doesn’t make someone a hardcore fan. And while I’m quite sure that the replay value is insanely high (a film doesn’t get this big without that either) of course that most will only see it once, say ‘it’s awesome, go see it!" and move on with their day. That is the case of people that saw Avatar, Titanic, The Force Awakens and etc. This film is a cultural phenomenon, just like the biggest we ever saw. Films like that don’t get that high without god sent wom and casuals watching it. The rest is the most absolute noise.

Actually, an older gentleman came in to work today to watch endgame. He said he had never seen another superhero film in his life but a friend of his gave this a glowing review. I spent a minute or so filling him in on the MCU lol and he practically went in blind. 

 

Loved it. 

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Just now, tawasal said:

Come on that's like 95%-96% increase if that's for EG, and it has no right jumping that high. 

I think the 11m makes much more sense than this. Which is 48% increase. 

 

Has any MCU movie ever jumped that high before. Over 90% on a Saturday.

Endgame jumped 70% last Saturday after a similar Friday jump of 115% (which it had yesterday)...definitely in the realm of the possible...

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Hoping detective Pikachu raises like last night update. Which was at 5.7 million 

 

movie does well in pacific coast and it’s 6pm there 

 

 

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EG has plenty of right to jump that high don't be silly. It's eroded demand and plummeted nonstop. A nice bump every now and then makes sense. I will hope for 14.5 and expect 13.5 for now.

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31 minutes ago, baumer said:

As so many have mentioned already, EG didn't just break the OW record, it fucking tortured it, hung it, revived it so it could draw and quarter it, cut off it's balls, removed its eyeballs with a dull spoon and then ate it raw and spit it out.  100 million dollar increase from an already insane OW is just ridiculous.  So to see it have legs like Civil War instead of Avengers, isn't alarming, surprising, concerning or jarring.  Just because we all think we have a grasp of the box office, doesn't mean we actually do.  Some of us have been dissecting the minutia of the BO for more than 25 years and still we are fed big poop sandwiches once in a while.  

 

Did I think the legs on this would be closer to 2.6 than 2.4?  Yep, I did.  I thought it would get to 900 but not pass TFA.  But when you satisfy that much upfront demand and when people are seeing your film 3 times in three days, you really have nowhere to go but down.  So the film is not having poor wom and the legs are bad in a purely literal sense, but if you dig a little deeper and dream a little bigger darling, you'll see that the film is behaving perhaps in the only way it possibly could. 

Honestly and I am quoting you because you are one of the very few people here that have actually something to say (unlike the usual mob) believe me (and you know if I am a marvel fan or not since 2001 when we had our first arguments), there is a big part of the MCU fanbase that didn’t enjoy the film. They didn’t hate it, just didn’t enjoy it enough for repeat viewings. Whether it is in forums, social media, anecdotal evidence e.t.c it is simply the truth. Yes the movie did gigantic, many people had to see it being the event that it was but consider this :matrix reloaded did terrific business when it was released , was it really that beloved ? Were the POTC sequels that beloved ? Hell was spider man 3 that beloved or even “return of the Jedi” ? Not everything is black and white. To be honest I don’t even believe that the world went nuts for avatar , it just became the talk of the town and did these amazing numbers, everybody had to see it because of the technology mostly.

 

If EG had managed to capitalize on its monstrous opening it would have done over 3 billion WW and easily beat TFA in the U.S, the competition it is having in the theaters is laughable (a Pokémon semi failure film, an R-rated niche action film and an already scrutinized live action remake from a cartoon). 

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2 minutes ago, tawasal said:

I think the thing that contributes to these meltdowns about a movies legs or opening in case of Pika is the unreasonably high expectations/predictions some people make or have after a certain number. Instead of looking at the whole picture, they take it and choose what piece to analyse to come to a ridiculous prediction or expectation for that movie. 

 

People in here were throwing around a billion in the domestic market before even waiting for the rest of the week or the 2nd weekend like a billion in NA was a nothing feat. So what ever that movie made after that day or the weekend will only be disappointing because of how highly unlikely their predictions were to begin with. 

 

That's a bingo!  Part of the problem is that people here mistake their expectations for reality.  When in fact, they are nothing close to each other.  Just because many here predicted Pikachu to do ungodly numbers, doesn't mean there was anything remotely realistic about those predictions.  

 

Now, when you look at it from a more realistic expectation based on the history of video games at the movies, and you realize that Pikachu is outperforming every other video game adaptation in film history.  It's already the highest opening weekend of any VG film and it is well on it's way to becoming the highest grossing film of all time domestically and probably should end up as the second highest grossing VG movie WW after Rampage.  So when you use real data and real comparisons, and not the ramblings of fanatical loonies espousing all kinds of unattainable and unrealistic numbers, you'll see that Pikachu is doing quite well!

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3 hour long is what hurt Endgame the most. People will be reductant to see it on weekdays and in some cases, weekend. I very much want to see it one or 2 more times but cant spare the time. Another disadvantage is the need to see the 21 films before it (its a disadvantage people, not an advantage) to completely understand the film.

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1 minute ago, TwoMisfits said:

Endgame jumped 70% last Saturday after a similar Friday jump of 115% (which it had yesterday)...definitely in the realm of the possible...

So what IW also jumped 75% this weekend but never did over that amount again in it's run (correct me if I am wrong). Even BP which had one of the best Saturday jumps among the MCU never did more than 84%-85%.  

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2 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

That's a bingo!  Part of the problem is that people here mistake their expectations for reality.  When in fact, they are nothing close to each other.  Just because many here predicted Pikachu to do ungodly numbers, doesn't mean there was anything remotely realistic about those predictions.  

 

Now, when you look at it from a more realistic expectation based on the history of video games at the movies, and you realize that Pikachu is outperforming every other video game adaptation in film history.  It's already the highest opening weekend of any VG film and it is well on it's way to becoming the highest grossing film of all time domestically and probably should end up as the second highest grossing VG movie WW after Rampage.  So when you use real data and real comparisons, and not the ramblings of fanatical loonies espousing all kinds of unattainable and unrealistic numbers, you'll see that Pikachu is doing quite well!

I agree except in the context that it's doing well. It's doing ok enough to break even and make a tiny profit. Better than Alita but not by that much. Shazam conversely will make a lot more with a WW lower gross.

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Gonna wait before jumping the gun. Yesterday the numbers looked different than the estimates we got today.  

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