Weekend Thread: Weekend Actuals - John Wick: Chapter 3 $56.82M | Avengers Endgame $29.97M | Detective Pikachu $25.10M

[Wrath]

1 hour ago, kitik said:

Ha ha, banned for posting Dogs Journey spoilers!

 

Who wants to post Booksmart spoilers next week?

If someone posts Brightburn spoilers I'm gonna kick their ass.

[Jonwo]

Lionsgate already is in the black with JW3 as they have already sold the OS rights. It’s interesting that they still don’t have an OS arm apart from the UK. 

[Legion Again]

Collapsing last weeks FFH ranges to point estimates of 120, 405 is kind of strange, would be a really high % of gross from days 4-6.

[WrathOfHan]

19 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-tracking-crawl-stuber/

 

Crawl: 13-22 range. 18/47

Stuber: 12-21 range. 17.5/65

 

Aladdin: 68.5/192 (+2%)

Brightburn: 9 (-10%)/23

Dark Phoenix: 50 (+6%)/118 (+4%)

Pets 2: 70 (-13%)/245 (-7%)

Toy Story 4: 117 (+4%)/390

lmao. It's going to open on the low end of that range, especially once more critics see it. It's already borderline rotten with the SXSW festival hype inflating the score.

Edited May 17, 2019 by WrathOfHan

[Eric Duncan]

3 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

lmao. It's going to open on the low end of that range, especially once more critics see it. It's already borderline rotten with the SXSW festival hype inflating the score.

Really bad, huh?

[75Live]

Just  got out of John Wick 3 and while I liked it, it's probably the weakest of the 3.  But still a fun ride

[MrGamer]

3 hours ago, MrPink said:

 

 

 

 

Edit: Also just noticed @filmlover got banned for Dog’s Journey spoilers. You may be off the hook for last year, Pink.

Edited May 17, 2019 by MrGamer

[Poseidon]

So Previews for TSIAAS were not measurable? 

[cookie]

1 minute ago, Poseidon said:

So Previews for TSIAAS were not measurable? 

Did it even have previews? It was tracking for like $5m OW.

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

42 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

Lionsgate already is in the black with JW3 as they have already sold the OS rights. It’s interesting that they still don’t have an OS arm apart from the UK. 

I think it's extremely difficult (and costly) to set up foreign distribution networks for newer studios, so it's both safer and more economical to just sell the OS distribution rights to cover costs, even for a bigger studio like Lionsgate.

[keysersoze123]

Looking fandango hourly numbers, JW is almost 3x Endgame. 6x Pokemon.

I would say friday
JW - 18m (not including previews)
Endgame - 7m
Pokemon - 5m.

[DAJK]

Ugh, hoping Dog’s Journey picks up over the weekend. From reviews, it sounds like I would love it, and the only way my theatre will get it is if it does good enough business this weekend.

[Minnale101]

6 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Looking fandango hourly numbers, JW is almost 3x Endgame. 6x Pokemon.

I would say friday
JW - 18m (not including previews)
Endgame - 7m
Pokemon - 5m.

Pluse had John wick 3 preview Thursday over 10k more than detective Pikachu but only did 200k more in previews 

 

it’s definitely are higher pre sale to walk up ratio movie 

[Eric Duncan]

16 minutes ago, cookie said:

Did it even have previews? It was tracking for like $5m OW.

Yeah it had some around me. But I guess it's a case where it sold so little that it wasn't worth reporting, which has happened a couple times before.

[Porthos]

17 hours ago, Porthos said:

Final Unofficial Comp Check. Don't blame 'the system' if it's off.

 

(ALL OF THESE FILMS HAD 3D SO ADJUST DOWNWARDS)

***SNIPPP***

 

A JW:FK comp     gives 6.83m

A Solo  comp      gives 6.78m

A Venom comp* gives 6.53m

* Math not given due to different adj

 

There HAS to be an adj for 3D, however.  So let's say 5.75m to 6.25m.  

 

That's an ad-hoc adj though, as I didn't run any 3D comps to see how many tickets are affected by that.  Might be overcompensating here, though.  

 

On the other hand, kinda worried I might be over-estimating it.  But that number from @captainwondyful makes me think, perhaps not. 

 

Be interested to see what it is when all is said and done.

 

Also congrats to @captainwondyful for her theater analysis as well! 👍

[Porthos]

And, ldo, great number to wake up to for Wick 3! Roll on 60m OW. 👍

[filmscholar]

5.9? Very good for Baba Yaga.   I love this franchise.   Has a Classic 80's/90's action feel.  The audience was loving Keanu, Halle and the Dogs so much.   I had a great time watching it last night, audience made it better.   It's amazing it's been 25 years since "Speed" and 20 Years since "The Matrix".   Keanu is the man.  

[Brainbug]

Great great number for John Wick.

[Mulder]

@Porthos does it again. Great number for John Wick, that's more then double what John Wick 2 did on it's preview night.

[cdsacken]

41 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Looking fandango hourly numbers, JW is almost 3x Endgame. 6x Pokemon.

I would say friday
JW - 18m (not including previews)
Endgame - 7m
Pokemon - 5m.

US absolutely exploded on opening day and it's a great comparison due to lack of 3d, competeing with a Mcu film a couple weeks old. I can't fathom it doing much better. 7.4 opener led to 28.92354m a pm 3.9086 multiplier.

 

OD including previews looks to max out at 23.5m OD give or take and I bet it does get close to that. I'm gonna say 23 OD.

 

 

Edited May 17, 2019 by cdsacken