Memorial Weekend Thread: 4-Day Actuals - Aladdin $116.81M | John Wick 3 $30.97M | Avengers Endgame $22.06M | Pokemon DP $17.25M

[ZattMurdock]

Just now, nguyenkhoi282 said:

EG estimate is up to 16.3M per Deadline.

EXCELLENT. Link?

[nguyenkhoi282]

Aladdin is getting surprisingly great WOM in Vietnam too, 9.2/10 on one of our best metrics (started out at 9.0 and went up during the weekend). Only 2 other movies managed that level past OW this year: Furie (local) and Endgame 

[nguyenkhoi282]

 

8 minutes ago, ZattMurdock said:

EXCELLENT. Link?

With a further $16.3M, Disney/Marvel’s Endgame brings its cume to $1.88B internationally and $2.684B worldwide

[MovieMan89]

5 minutes ago, nguyenkhoi282 said:

EG estimate is up to 16.3M per Deadline.

Wonderful. Just enough to put Avatar back on track without possibly needing some help from Disney. 

[ZattMurdock]

1 minute ago, nguyenkhoi282 said:

 

With a further $16.3M, Disney/Marvel’s Endgame brings its cume to $1.88B internationally and $2.684B worldwide

This is excellent news, if the estimates hold. Over $2m IW in OS-C. I’m telling you all that you are freaking out over nothing. Endgame is doing completely fine and stabilizing like IW from this point forward.

[Krissykins]

4 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

RT still has all audience, either way you slice it the score is amazing.

 

IMDB is at 7.4 and keeps going up.

 

Letteboxd is completely irrelevant, no one in the casual GA knows it exists.

 

There is no way this movie isn't being eaten up by the GA, it has everything a summer crowd pleaser needs.

 

We've never even had a movie that grossed anything significant increase on MD Sunday, that alone proves the WOM. 

I strongly disagree with all of the sweeping statements you made and tried to pass off as fact. Lol. 

 

(Letterboxd is great cause it’s for avid film fans. Not just the general public that go four times a year and trolls don’t seem to be aware of it thankfully)

 

People are being seriously over the top about Aladdin on here this week. It’s all coming off as a bit defensive. What’s going on? 

 

[Minnale101]

10 minutes ago, ZattMurdock said:

Endgame is too further along in into its release schedule to be truly affected by the new releases, imho. It’s not far fetched that it will behave like IW from this point forward.

I would love to see endgame surpass avatar because I think avatar is overrated af but even looking at last year end of May weekend 

 

it’s not even close to competition like this year 

 

3 movies this weekend will do more than last year top movie that weekend 

 

the competition is too high 

 

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/?yr=2018&wknd=22&p=.htm

[nguyenkhoi282]

6 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Wonderful. Just enough to put Avatar back on track without possibly needing some help from Disney. 

I'm still unsure how it'll survive upcoming competition. We'll know for sure next weekend. If it drops ~ 40-45% for both domestic and overseas, Avatar is in sight (+/-5M). 

 

I'm not worrying about DOM since the raw number is small enough now. The question is how Endgame fairs OS. It'll need at least 1.290B to have a shot at the record (1.251B atm)

[MovieMan89]

21 minutes ago, ZattMurdock said:

That’s what I am saying. I am taking China under consideration. If you remove China, OS-C this weekend was still above IW if the estimates hold:

 

I don’t have in hand, but it was $14.4m for OS-C. OS-C still pulled more $56m after this weekend.

 

EDIT: Here you go:

 

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=intl&view=byweekend&wk=2018W21&id=marvel0518.htm

 

OS-C this weekend was $14.463.048 for Infinity War. If the OS-C estimates for Endgame hold, that is still above what IW did in the same period of time. Infinity War went to make more $56.5m OS-C, and $43.5m from China from this weekend forward.  

 

 

Great point. China makes it easy to forget that if you take that out of the equation for IW then it was at a similar point OS and still pulled another 50+. As long as EG follows IW holds both OS-China and DOM from here, it's easily beating Avatar on its own. 

[nguyenkhoi282]

9 minutes ago, Minnale101 said:

I would love to see endgame surpass avatar because I think avatar is overrated af but even looking at last year end of May weekend 

 

it’s not even close to competition like this year 

 

3 movies this weekend will do more than last year top movie that weekend 

 

the competition is too high 

 

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/?yr=2018&wknd=22&p=.htm

I think he meant once a movie gets small enough in raw numbers, competition can hardly affect it anymore. 

[nguyenkhoi282]

8 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Great point. China makes it easy to forget that if you take that out of the equation for IW then it was at a similar point OS and still pulled another 50+. As long as EG follows IW holds both OS-China and DOM from here, it's easily beating Avatar on its own. 

IW had zero competition in the following weekend and dropped only 21% OS-China. Since Endgame will have Godzilla and Rocketman this year, one can only hope for 40% optimistically.

[RamblinRed]

53 minutes ago, ZattMurdock said:

I think that the answer to this relies on how strong the OS legs can be this point forward. It faced Aladdin this weekend OS and it still managed to come out above Infinity War, if the estimates hold. 

 

If Endgame can still keep this pace ahead of IW in OS-C, it will manage to top Avatar without a re-release. If it doesn’t, then it will need a re-release. I think people are overestimating the effect that competition will have for Endgame. It’s heading to Weekend 6, if it still manages to keep over IW OS-C and around the same in Dom, it will end up topping Avatar.

No, not on track anymore. It's estimate was just a little lower than IW last year - we'll see actuals later this afternoon.

It is going to drop alot more the next couple of weeks than IW did. Last year you had a weekend with a collapsing Solo and 3 films that grossed $18M combined. This year you have the highest non-sequel ever for MD weekend and 3 new films that could open to over $100 combined and are going to gobble up way more screens. I think most films from this weekend are going to drop over 50% next weekend just due to screen losses. 

 

Not getting the China extension really hurt its potential to pass Avatar. By weekend three it was obvious it would need good OS holds to catch Avatar.  

 

AE could easily be out of the top 10 before FFH is released. 

[Krissykins]

4 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Great point. China makes it easy to forget that if you take that out of the equation for IW then it was at a similar point OS and still pulled another 50+. As long as EG follows IW holds both OS-China and DOM from here, it's easily beating Avatar on its own. 

It hasn’t followed any of IW’s holds up until this point anywhere, so with the onslaught of upcoming films grabbing screens, why would it all of a sudden start having better holds (internationally)?

[MovieMan89]

2 minutes ago, nguyenkhoi282 said:

I'm still unsure how it'll survive upcoming competition. We'll know for sure next weekend. If it drops ~ 40-45% for both domestic and overseas, Avatar is in sight (+/-5M). 

 

I'm not worrying about DOM since the raw number is small enough now. The question is how Endgame fairs OS. It'll need at least 1.290B to have a shot at the record (1.251B atm)

Next week it gets hit much harder by competition than IW did since that week was dead, however it's worth noting that the rest of the competition in June after that is much lighter than IW had. IW had to go up against FK and I2 shortly after. SLOP, MIB, and TS4 aren't an FK/I2 level of comp WW. So I'm guessing harsher holds than IW next week, followed by better ones through most of the rest of June. 

[cdsacken]

9 minutes ago, Minnale101 said:

I would love to see endgame surpass avatar because I think avatar is overrated af but even looking at last year end of May weekend 

 

it’s not even close to competition like this year 

 

3 movies this weekend will do more than last year top movie that weekend 

 

the competition is too high 

 

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/?yr=2018&wknd=22&p=.htm

But it will probably get a couple million extra due to Spiderman. (like 2-3) and it might get rereleased. We'll have to wait and see.

 

Even if the numbers are good this coming weekend I'm not gonna even think about final numbers until the end of July.

[MovieMan89]

9 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

It hasn’t followed any of IW’s holds up until this point anywhere, so with the onslaught of upcoming films grabbing screens, why would it all of a sudden start having better holds (internationally)?

It has been following IW holds very closely DOM except for the third weekend. As for OS, the number minus China is significantly better than IW-China this weekend, so it has a lot of breathing room to get hit harder by the competition and still make the 50 or so it needs OS to beat Avatar.

 

If it were to have IW-China's OS multi from this weekend, it would do another 65 OS. Again, it really only needs to do 50-55 more as long as DOM stays following IW. And yes this first week of June is much rougher for it than IW, but at least it doesn't have an FK or I2 looming like IW did. 

Edited May 28, 2019 by MovieMan89

[nguyenkhoi282]

Oh, and IW DID NOT added 56M after 5th weekend OS-China, only 44M. Box Office Mojo shows 359M for its China total because it used a flawed method with ER at the end of the run. IW China total was 375.5M, meaning 994M OS-China total (951M by 5th).

 

Similar ratio gives EG +50M for 1.301B total. However, competition is much fiercer this year so i'm expecting 2.1-2.5x instead of 3x 5th weekend like IW. That means 35-41M more for 1.286-1.292B. Higher-end will be enough to push it over the mark.

Edited May 28, 2019 by nguyenkhoi282

[ZattMurdock]

12 minutes ago, nguyenkhoi282 said:

IW had zero competition in the following weekend and dropped only 21% OS-China. Since Endgame will have Godzilla and Rocketman this year, one can only hope for 40% optimistically.

It doesn’t really need to make more $56m OS-C after the weekend to top Avatar. Around $50m would be enough, and I don’t think competition will really hurt its legs as much as you all are expecting. The further from the release date, easier it becomes to Endgame to keep tracking over / around IW, imho. It made $11.2m next weekend OS-C. A 40% drop would get to $9-10m. It’s still very much achievable.

[Minnale101]

May has been a fantastic month for movies box office 

 

I personally thought detective Pikachu was gonna do aladdin numbers and Aladdin was doing numbers detective Pikachu numbers 

 

but happy aladdin turned out much better than expected to make for detective Pikachu lack of a break out

 

john wick 3 did fantastic 

 

book smart and long shot should have done much better.

 

comedies might be dead 

[MovieMan89]

2 minutes ago, nguyenkhoi282 said:

Oh, and IW DID NOT added 56M after 5th weekend OS-China, only 44M. Box Office Mojo shows 359M for its China total because it used a flawed method with ER at the end of the run. IW China total was 375.5M, meaning 994M OS-China total (951M by 5th).

 

Similar ratio gives EG +50M for 1.301B total. However, competition is much fiercer this year so i'm expecting 2.1-2.5x instead of 3x 5th weekend like IW. That means 35-41M more for 1.286-1.292B. Higher-end will be enough to push it over the mark.

Aw, well then yeah over Avatar is once again a challenge. Still within reach, and still something I'm sure Disney pushes once it gets within 10-15m.