Memorial Weekend Thread: 4-Day Actuals - Aladdin $116.81M | John Wick 3 $30.97M | Avengers Endgame $22.06M | Pokemon DP $17.25M

[TwoMisfits]

42 minutes ago, Menor said:

48690 at 4pm on Pulse, no slowdown and it will hit 50k or thereabouts at 5. It added 5k between 5pm and final on Thursday, I expect significantly higher for Friday so maybe 8kish, which puts it at 58k. Comps (throwing out those that were off by >1 million last night):

I2: 34.9 (lol)

Dumbo: 26.3

Pika: 25.6

BP: 20.1 (lol)

So...7-26-31-28-22 = 114...maybe?

 

 

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-05-23 17:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK    PERCENT    TICKETS    MOVIE
1    42.407%    32517    Aladdin (2019)
2    14.663%    11243    John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum
3    09.076%    6959    Avengers Endgame (2019)
4    07.718%    5918    Aladdin

 

I'm not seeing 48690...looks like 38500 or so...might want to lower your expectations a little, since presale Thursday night will probably not be beaten that much by Friday night...

[Mulder]

1 minute ago, Brainbug said:

 

The Jurassic World - Inside Out and Fallen Kingdom - Incredibles 2 weeks do give me hope and its certainly true that KOTM and Aladdin are very different films. But i cant help myself, ive been extremely nervous for weeks now lol

I'd say Kong, Logan, and BATB is a better comparison for the ideal scenario.

[xiazhi]

21 minutes ago, Deja23 said:

It’s funny to me that there’s been an Aladdin vs. Godzilla thing going on. The movies are so different, they’ll both be fine if the GA like them. There’s no need to get upset about either or hope for one to fail. 

How come there's no DP vs Pet2 going on? They are in the same weekend and open to the same.

[filmlover]

Aladdin and Godzilla are different enough that they can easily co-exist. More concerning for Godzilla is not only is Aladdin gonna still be going strong next weekend but it also faces a pair of openers that are tracking to debut with more than $45M combined.

[Alli]

6 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Aladdin is starting to blow up around here and is looking great for the rest of the long holiday weekend. Should debut with $105-110M over the 4-day frame with a good chance of finishing with $250M+.

Me likey

[Menor the Destroyer]

6 minutes ago, Porthos said:

33m Fri would certainly be something considering expectations.  Be interested to see just what our Asgardian Gods have to say later tonight.

50k crossed in the latest hour, no slow down at all. I'm getting more and more confident in that number (though obviously waiting on Asgard)

[Alli]

1 minute ago, filmlover said:

Aladdin and Godzilla are different enough that they can easily co-exist. More concerning for Godzilla is not only is Aladdin gonna still be going strong next weekend but it also faces a pair of openers that are tracking to debut with more than $45M combined.

MA will destroy Godzy 🧐

[Mulder]

Just now, filmlover said:

Aladdin and Godzilla are different enough that they can easily co-exist. More concerning for Godzilla is not only is Aladdin gonna still be going strong next weekend but it also faces a pair of openers that are tracking to debut with more than $45M combined.

Rocketman's similar to how G-2014 had a small-scale sports drama (Whose name I forget) debut on it's OW and it's base is very different. Same with Ma. I see more overlap between Aladdin and KoTM then I do KOTM and those two.

[Menor the Destroyer]

3 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-05-23 17:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK    PERCENT    TICKETS    MOVIE
1    42.407%    32517    Aladdin (2019)
2    14.663%    11243    John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum
3    09.076%    6959    Avengers Endgame (2019)
4    07.718%    5918    Aladdin

 

I'm not seeing 48690...looks like 38500 or so...might want to lower your expectations a little, since presale Thursday night will probably not be beaten that much by Friday night...

You're looking at a different link. http://akvalley.pythonanywhere.com/static/fandango_daily.txt shows the tickets sold for each day.

[filmlover]

3 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Rocketman's similar to how G-2014 had a small-scale sports drama (Whose name I forget) debut on it's OW and it's base is very different. Same with Ma. I see more overlap between Aladdin and KoTM then I do KOTM and those two.

I meant from a theater space point of view. Theaters are definitely gonna have fun deciding what to book in what theaters (FYI Godzilla is getting the PLF auditorium here but the biggest non-PLF auditorium is going to Rocketman while Ma is getting a medium-sized theater during the day before moving to one of the bigger ones - most likely swapping with Aladdin - for the last show of the night).

[ThomasNicole]

Variety is betting on at least $ 100M...

 

Ignoring the potential for being higher, it's AMAZING how this have a really good shot at $ 100M now despite all the production problems, the atrocious marketing and the low tracking.

 

 

[Mulder]

Just now, filmlover said:

I meant from a theater space point of view. Theaters are definitely gonna have fun deciding what to book in what theaters (FYI Godzilla is getting the PLF auditorium here but the biggest non-PLF auditorium is going to Rocketman while Ma is getting a medium-sized theater during the day before moving to one of the bigger ones - most likely swapping with Aladdin - for the last show of the night).

We've gotten theater counts, KoTM's way higher then the other two. If anything it'd hurt hold-overs or underperformers like Brightburn and (sadly) Booksmart more then anything else.

[Alli]

I really don't think Rocketman will blow up. Under 30M is my prediction

[That One Girl]

Booksmart is a phenomenal movie.  Aladdin is fucking awful.  Please see the better movie this weekend.

[Porthos]

12 minutes ago, Mulder said:

I'd say Kong, Logan, and BATB is a better comparison for the ideal scenario.

See now if you Godzillastans WANT me to add to the worry, I'd say "be more worried about how Wick 3 is connecting with action junkies than how Aladdin is doing right now".  It's not a complete 1:1 overlap for various reasons, starting with the R-rating and going all the way down to the difference between action junkie vs destruction porn.

 

At the same time, just can't ignore Wick 3, either.

 

I'm pretty sure I know what you're concerned about when it comes to Aladdin and WB, but the background buzz between the two films couldn't have been more different.  If folks on the fence see "Lots of destruction and fights, but bland characters" (BIG if) I don't think it'll matter all that much in the end.

 

Chalk it up to:  Sometimes mixed reviews don't matter if they say the right things about what a critic is mixed about.

Edited May 24, 2019 by Porthos

[TwoMisfits]

7 minutes ago, Menor said:

You're looking at a different link. http://akvalley.pythonanywhere.com/static/fandango_daily.txt shows the tickets sold for each day.

So, you were only talking about all presales related to this day, not the amount of presales within the last 24 hours...okay, but I don't think that tells you it's going higher than Deadline's range...to go higher, you'd need to see the 24 hour rolling average skyrocketing (which it is higher than end of day Thursday)...

[Mulder]

Just now, Porthos said:

See now if you Godzillastans WANT me to add to the worry, I'd say "be more worried about how Wick 3 is connecting with action junkies than Aladdin".  It's not a complete 1:1 overlap for various reasons, starting with the R-rating and going all the way down to the difference between action junkie vs destruction porn.

 

At the same time, just can't ignore Wick 3, either.

 

I'm pretty sure I know what you're concerned about when it comes to Aladdin and WB, but the background buzz between the two films couldn't have been more different.  If folks on the fence see "Lots of destruction and fights, but bland characters" (BIG if) I don't think it'll matter all that much in the end.

 

Chalk it up to:  Sometimes mixed reviews don't matter if they say the right things about what a critic is mixed about.

Wick's legs if those Variety numbers hold up, while strong, aren't enough for me to worry. Weekend 3's not too big of a deal and the style is entirely different. I'm more worried that the RT number'll go below 70 tbh because of that complaint. But then I remember Skull Island did fine despite having a decent but nothing too special cast of characters mostly and I yell at myself but then my anxiety peeks in again lmao. 

[filmlover]

Next week I'm feeling something like $60-65M for Godzilla, $30M for Rocketman, and $20M for Ma (hopefully it's good because it looks like a fun "against type" vehicle for Octavia).

[Menor the Destroyer]

4 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

So, you were only talking about all presales related to this day, not the amount of presales within the last 24 hours...okay, but I don't think that tells you it's going higher than Deadline's range...to go higher, you'd need to see the 24 hour rolling average skyrocketing (which it is higher than end of day Thursday)...

I am comparing to other movies

[RealLyre]

Booksmart is already available on Netflix in some of the OS countries. will watch it later tonight.

 

I guess they're not even bothering with a wide OS release?

 

Edited May 24, 2019 by RealLyre
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