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Memorial Weekend Thread: 4-Day Actuals - Aladdin $116.81M | John Wick 3 $30.97M | Avengers Endgame $22.06M | Pokemon DP $17.25M

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6 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Wick's legs if those Variety numbers hold up, while strong, aren't enough for me to worry. Weekend 3's not too big of a deal and the style is entirely different. I'm more worried that the RT number'll go below 70 tbh because of that complaint. But then I remember Skull Island did fine despite having a decent but nothing too special cast of characters mostly and I yell at myself but then my anxiety peeks in again lmao. 

It's not so much legs when talking about how Wick 3 might impact KotM but movie viewer budget.

 

I've mentioned my theory of movie going budget before, and I don't think it's a huge factor in this case.  But I do think there might, might, be a sliver of the audience out there that might have gone to KotM to get some action fix but already spent their hard earned dollars on Wick 3 a couple of weeks earlier.

 

That Wick 3 actually came in closer to 55m than 60m on OW lessens this factor.  But it's still a consideration in the back of my head. 

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Just now, Porthos said:

It's not so much legs when talking about how Wick 3 might impact KotM but movie viewer budget.

 

I've mentioned my theory of movie going budget before, and I don't think it's a huge factor in this case.  But I do think there might, might, be a sliver of the audience out there that might have gone to KotM to get some action fix but already spent their hard earned dollars on Wick 3 a couple of weeks earlier.

 

That Wick 3 actually came in closer to 55m than 60m on OW lessens this factor.  But it's still a consideration in the back of my head. 

While I do agree I just think the Wick 3 audience is so different. It reminds me of Logan vs Kong: Skull Island, except there was way more overlap between those two.

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4 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

Booksmart is already available on Netflix in some of the OS countries. will watch it later tonight.

 

I guess they're even bothering with a wide OS release?

 

Since it was bound to make next to nothing OS selling it to Netflix is pretty smart in terms of getting your money back.

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39 minutes ago, Curtis1986 said:

Word of Mouth for Aladdin is fantastic. It's nice to see it breaking out. Between this and The Lion King Disney is on a roll with their live-action remakes.

The most recent was Dumbo, I wouldn’t call that “on a roll”. Back on track maybe, despite critical reception and early OS turnout 

18 minutes ago, Alli said:

I really don't think Rocketman will blow up. Under 30M is my prediction

It deserves to make all the money 

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How does Deadline figure $8M 3-day for Brightburn off $950K previews? I'm still learning when it comes to weekend predicts but to me that's a locked double digit opening.

 

Please let me know if I'm way off base.

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Just now, JB33 said:

How does Deadline figure $8M 3-day for Brightburn off $950K previews? I'm still learning when it comes to weekend predicts but to me that's a locked double digit opening.

 

Please let me know if I'm way off base.

 

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John Wick's 3 weekend drop even if it stays where it is, is actually pretty good. Its significantly smaller than Deadpool 2's was last year and DP2 went ahead to recover and have pretty good late legs. I don't see why JW3 can't do the same. I do think losing the PLF screens in the second weekend coupled to some fan rush in the OW is what's leading to Wick's drop (same thing with DP2 last year) 

 

But of course this is very premature talk right now as the weekend numbers aren't official and if Wick 3 hits $30M+, my post will have been for nothing lol

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21 minutes ago, JB33 said:

How does Deadline figure $8M 3-day for Brightburn off $950K previews? I'm still learning when it comes to weekend predicts but to me that's a locked double digit opening.

 

Please let me know if I'm way off base.

The Friday number maybe not too good? 

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Summer RT Watch Update: Now into our fourth weekend of the summer box office season, our RT watch gets more interesting. We sit at 5 Fresh and 9 Rotten films (including next weekend's Rocketman, which is nearly Certified Fresh). Two films added, Aladdin and Brightburn, are on the cusp of being 'Fresh', but look to ultimately finish as 'Rotten'. The Sun is Also a Star and A Dog's Journey are also 'Rotten'.

 

On the flip side, John Wick 3 becomes the best reviewed film of the Wick series (with its 7.5 average rating being the highest of the trilogy). Rocketman similarly has strong reviews (and will soon become Certified Fresh). And finally, Booksmart has solidified itself as the best reviewed wide-release film of the summer, and the first film so far to have an 8+ average rating. It remains to be seen if anything else this summer can top it.

 

2019 Summer Films RT Watch (Wide-Release — May/June/July/August)

  1. Booksmart — 97% — 8.3 rating
  2. John Wick: Chapter 3 — 89% — 7.5 rating
  3. Rocketman — 88% — 7.5 rating
  4. Long Shot — 81% — 7.1 rating
  5. Pokémon Detective Pikachu — 66% — 6.0 rating
  6. Brightburn — 58% — 5.7 rating
  7. Aladdin — 57% — 5.8 rating
  8. The Sun Is Also a Star — 51% — 5.6 rating
  9. Tolkien — 50% — 5.8 rating
  10. A Dog’s Journey — 49% — 5.1 rating
  11. Poms — 32% — 4.7 rating
  12. The Intruder — 30% — 4.2 rating
  13. UglyDolls — 29% — 4.3 rating
  14. The Hustle — 15% — 3.9 rating

2018 — 45 wide-release films

  • 22 fresh, 23 rotten
  • 80% or higher: 13 films
  • 8.0+ rating: 3 films (BlacKkKlansman, Mission: Impossible - Fallout, and Hereditary)

2017 — 42 wide-release films

  • 18 fresh, 24 rotten
  • 80% or higher: 14 films
  • 8.0+ rating: 4 films (Dunkirk, The Big Sick, War for the Planet of the Apes, Baby Driver)

2016 — 42 wide-release films

  • 20 fresh, 22 rotten
  • 80% or higher: 9 films
  • 8.0+ rating: 1 film (Kubo and the Two Strings)

Peace,

Mike

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