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Memorial Weekend Thread: 4-Day Actuals - Aladdin $116.81M | John Wick 3 $30.97M | Avengers Endgame $22.06M | Pokemon DP $17.25M

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3 minutes ago, VanillaSkies said:

Again though, forget the size of the film.

You can't take a family flick from 2012 that was pre-Thursday 7pm previews and compare it's Friday - Saturday jump to a Friday-Saturday jump in 2019.

One has 7pm Thursday previews to inflate the Friday number, the other does not. 

Without Thursday preview numbers built it, Saturday jumps would be much higher for all films opening weekend. 

 

There was no attempt to compare this to Aladdin (and I stated there is no way Aladdin was in for a jump of that kind). 

 

It was a simple factual illustration that jumps like that have happened before... Baumer clarified that he was referring to Memorial Day. 

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4 minutes ago, Jiffy said:

 

There was no attempt to compare this to Aladdin (and I stated there is no way Aladdin was in for a jump of that kind). 

 

It was a simple factual illustration that jumps like that have happened before... Baumer clarified that he was referring to Memorial Day. 

Forget Aladdin. 

I'm saying comparing any 2012 Friday - Saturday jump to any 2019 Friday - Saturday jump is dicey at best due to the wide-spread 7pm shows that now exists compared to midnight shows back then. 

 

Then take into account that the film you used as an example is a family flick meaning that it would have basically made nothing in previews, and it means it's Friday number was not inflated by any Thursday preview numbers. Of course it's Saturday jump is going to be larger than one now. 

 

Baumer's point still stands,  blockbuster films just don't jump 80% on their opening weekend Saturdays, regardless of whether it's Memorial Day weekend or not, simply because their Fridays have already been inflated by preview numbers. 

It might be a simple fact that this was a Saturday jump in 2012, but it can't be used as an argument as to why a 2019 would be able to achieve the same Friday-Saturday bump. 

 

Also, Baumer was pretty spot on. 

Saturday's number for Aladdin is about flat according to both Charlie and RTH. And this is because there were 7 million in previews in those Friday numbers....

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3 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Speechless is powerful. Powerful as Let It Go. Don't know if it will be that big.

Yeah. Looks like Disney underestimated that song. Would have done wonder's in terms of marketing if they released it earlier. 

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20 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Speechless is powerful. Powerful as Let It Go. Don't know if it will be that big.

Speechless is more like This Is Me.  Nice sentiment, solid work.  It's nowhere need the cathartic masterpiece that is Let It Go.  

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Maybe I'm old and jagged, but I thought that song was crap. Heavy-handed, hit-you-over-the-head messaging and not even instantly memorable (for better or worse) as a piece of music, like Let It Go.

But seems I'm an outlier with Aladdin, which I found competent but overall mediocre and forgettable.

Good for Disney's ongoing live-action remake plans, after Dumbo, I suppose.

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@Yandereprime101189 Yeah, I had gotten the memo already. My memory of The Little Mermaid is clearly not the same as 98% of the people. Rewatch may be necessary.

 

@baumer I believe you've gotten quoted multiple times over this, but yeah, The Lion King has done a lot to warrant the predictions it's been getting. 780M WW in 1994 money, highest selling home video release of all time for many years, highest grossing 3D re-release of all time DOM (and maybe WW too, it's close between it and Titanic), highest grossing musical play of all time, one of the highest grossing album soundtracks of all time, a pop culture icon where every single song and money shot is well remembered, has been parodied hundreds of times and is still looked at fondly, and the remake trailers nearly broke 24 hour-view records and are the biggest trailers ever for family films by a long shot. Beauty And The Beast and The Jungle Book were never more popular than The Lion King. Hell, no animated movie was ever more popular than The Lion King - even Frozen. No chance it falls below a billion and I'm willing to bet real money on that.

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Just now, MCKillswitch123 said:

 

@baumer I believe you've gotten quoted multiple times over this, but yeah, The Lion King has done a lot to warrant the predictions it's been getting. 780M WW in 1994 money, highest selling home video release of all time for many years, highest grossing 3D re-release of all time DOM (and maybe WW too, it's close between it and Titanic), highest grossing musical play of all time, one of the highest grossing album soundtracks of all time, a pop culture icon where every single song and money shot is well remembered, has been parodied hundreds of times and is still looked at fondly, and the remake trailers nearly broke 24 hour-view records and are the biggest trailers ever for family films by a long shot. Beauty And The Beast and The Jungle Book were never more popular than The Lion King. Hell, no animated movie was ever more popular than The Lion King - even Frozen. No chance it falls below a billion and I'm willing to bet real money on that.

Pretty much.

Something would need to go HORRIBLY wrong for it to not finish second behind Endgame for the year, imo. And I just can't see what, short of cinemas closing down after opening weekend or something.

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5 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

Pretty much.

Something would need to go HORRIBLY wrong for it to not finish second behind Endgame for the year, imo. And I just can't see what, short of cinemas closing down after opening weekend or something.

I think there's a small chance it could finish third - WW to Frozen II and DOM to The Rise Of Skywalker - but yeah, top 3 is the floor imo. And I think it's wayyyyy likelier to go second in both accounts instead.

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7 hours ago, La Binoche said:

OMFG I watched the 2nd Avengers movie. The lame "likable" humor, the lack of story, the dumb senseless destruction, the overlength. Mind numbing trash and proof that 99% of the public is comprised of morons.

 

 

What is quantum physics? What can we do with it? Dont mention art before you solve this riddle.. you have work to do... begone now intelectual xD 

 

TTVOMJ

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Just now, MCKillswitch123 said:

I think there's a small chance it could finish third - WW to Frozen II and DOM to The Rise Of Skywalker - but yeah, top 3 is the floor imo. And I think it's wayyyyy likelier to go second in both accounts instead.

I think DOM you're right, yeah. But I was thinking WW - I think the difference between it and Frozen domestically will be big enough to make up for any advantage Frozen 2 might have overseas (though I think even there TLK might come out on top - I think Frozen 2 will be far more dependent on legs and those will be, in turn, dependent on having a song capture the attention of the public in the same way that Let It Go did; I believe TLK has more going for it).

 

Now watch me be completely wrong and TLK not even making top 5... :rofl:

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7 hours ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

TBH after 1st teaser trailer, I used to think that if there's any film that can go over Avatar is TLK. Simply because it has sort of no weak zone unlike Avengers or any other superhero film having weak Europe and Japan, which Endgame overcome to an extent.

 

Now after trailer and Endgame, I think it might not be that easy and of course, I am no longer assured of it being as good as original after 1st trailer. That said, if it's as good as TJB, $2B will be cake walk but now, I don't see it going over 2.25 Bn as well 

I would like to go inside average people(not acusing you) and see truthful reaction and difference between teaser and trailer(something simmilar to what happened to blue genie?).. i will never understand why average people need absurdity to feel original... maybe its because to the awesomes its so apparent they are closing all the doors behind them and the averages are left outside in their wanna be...

 

TTVOMJ

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4 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

I think DOM you're right, yeah. But I was thinking WW - I think the difference between it and Frozen domestically will be big enough to make up for any advantage Frozen 2 might have overseas (though I think even there TLK might come out on top - I think Frozen 2 will be far more dependent on legs and those will be, in turn, dependent on having a song capture the attention of the public in the same way that Let It Go did; I believe TLK has more going for it).

 

Now watch me be completely wrong and TLK not even making top 5... :rofl:

Tbh I'm going REALLY big on Frozen II DOM (I think it's gonna hit 600+.... Incredibles 2 is going down), so the OS gross is gonna be the difference-maker, and I expect TLK to be an OS giant, but Frozen will also be a colossus. We'll see what happens.

 

You can rest on the top 5 being a sure bet, though. WW, the only movie I could see beating TLK, besides Avengers of course, is Frozen - unless there's a bunch of Wolf Warrior 2's coming out in China, but even then, they would have to way surpass a billion to beat TLK.  And DOM, again, asides from Endgame, only Star Wars. Maybe Frozen as well, but much less likely. Everything else is not a threat, cause the next big movies other than those are Spider-Man and Toy Story, and I don't see either of them coming close to The Lion King. DOM, I don't even think Far From Home or TS4 will beat Captain Marvel (and the same applies for the latter WW).

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