Memorial Weekend Thread: 4-Day Actuals - Aladdin $116.81M | John Wick 3 $30.97M | Avengers Endgame $22.06M | Pokemon DP $17.25M

[dxmatrixdt]

Just now, MCKillswitch123 said:

I doubt The Rise Of Skywalker makes 1.5B period. Best case scenario I see is about 1.35B. More likely about 1.2B.

why?

[maxalcamo]

Booksmart looks like a girls teen movie when no teen girls listen to Ariana Grande. Boring.

 

Edited May 26, 2019 by maxalcamo

[MCKillswitch123]

Just now, Clubs Are Trash said:

why?

Because it's almost assuredly going down OS from The Last Jedi? It might go up about 80-100M DOM and it'll go down about the same or more OS, even accounting for potential good runs in Europe and Japan.

[cannastop]

8 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

I doubt The Rise Of Skywalker makes 1.5B period. Best case scenario I see is about 1.35B. More likely about 1.2B. That's not an impossible number for TLK or Frozen II OS to beat.

Actually, it is, especially for Frozen 2.

 

They're simply not Avengers, Titanic or Avatar.

Edited May 26, 2019 by cannastop

[cannastop]

4 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Because it's almost assuredly going down OS from The Last Jedi? It might go up about 80-100M DOM and it'll go down about the same or more OS, even accounting for potential good runs in Europe and Japan.

Why do you assume that? Outside of currency issues, I mean.

[MCKillswitch123]

11 minutes ago, cannastop said:

 Actually, it is, especially for Frozen 2.

The BATB remake made 760M OS, the original Lion King made an accumulated 545.7M OS from mostly 1994 money and Frozen made 875.7M OS. And there is not a country in the world where TLK remake or Frozen II will be weak. The Force Awakens made 1.13B OS and about 120M of that came from China, which is the only question mark for those two films, and TFA made that amount in China mostly because of gigantic WW hype that created curiosity, but ended up not quite translating for Chinese audiences. TLK can do that too. And Frozen's China total pretty much matched that of Incredibles 2's, so it too can bump up over there. Really not as much of a stretch as you imagine.

 

And as far as TROS, because non-Japan Asia in particular has been a downer for Star Wars and I feel like their interest in franchise is absolutely dead in a post-TLJ and Solo world. The rest of the world is also likely not going to have insane interest in the movie after those two, with only the potential of legs in those territories to back it up.

Edited May 26, 2019 by MCKillswitch123

[cannastop]

6 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

The BATB remake made 760M OS, the original Lion King made an accumulated 545.7M OS from mostly 1994 money and Frozen made 875.7M OS. And there is not a country in the world where TLK remake or Frozen II will be weak. The Force Awakens made 1.13B and about 120M of that came from China, which is the only question mark for those two films, and TFA made that amount in China mostly because of gigantic WW hype that created curiosity, but ended up not quite translating for Chinese audiences. TLK can do that too. And Frozen's China total pretty much matched that of Incredibles 2's, so it too can bump up over there. Really not as much of a stretch as you imagine.

Why do you assume Frozen 2 will get a sequel bump all around the world? The only place where I see it can improve is China. The first one is already one of the biggest movies ever in South Korea and Japan. You probably can't get a 50% bump in those markets.

 

I also don't see a 60% bump from Beauty and the Beast for The Lion King.

Edited May 26, 2019 by cannastop

[Valonqar]

21 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

I doubt The Rise Of Skywalker makes 1.5B period. Best case scenario I see is about 1.35B. More likely about 1.2B. That's not an impossible number for TLK or Frozen II OS to beat.

yeah, this. TROS is not going to grow OS and has better chance to drop OS from TLJ than make more (and that would be by few millions not by a large margin if old markets really go for it, cause it's dead in non-Japan Asia and Latam). Therefore, TLK and Frozen 2 have an excellent chance to beat it. 

Edited May 26, 2019 by Valonqar

[MCKillswitch123]

1 minute ago, cannastop said:

Why do you assume Frozen will get a sequel bump all around the world? The only place where I see it can improve is China. The first one is already one of the biggest movies ever in South Korea and Japan. You probably can't get a 50% bump in those markets.

 

I also don't see a 60% bump from Beauty and the Beast for The Lion King.

What about the rest of the world? Europe, Australia..... it's not just China that can go up. South Korea and Japan can pretty much stay flat and everything else have a bump up. And again, The Lion King is an incomparable monster to BATB.

 

I'm just saying: I think there's more chance of either of those movies' OS gross beating TROS's WW gross than TROS hitting 1.5B. Not after what happened with TLJ and Solo. Even with about 700+ from DOM, I think the OS drop is gonna be pretty palpable.

[4815162342]

20 minutes ago, maxalcamo said:

Booksmart looks like a girls teen movie when no teen girls listen to Ariana Grande. Boring.

 

 

Your loss then

[cannastop]

2 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

What about the rest of the world? Europe, Australia..... it's not just China that can go up. South Korea and Japan can pretty much stay flat and everything else have a bump up. And again, The Lion King is an incomparable monster to BATB.

 

I'm just saying: I think there's more chance of either of those movies' OS gross beating TROS's WW gross than TROS hitting 1.5B. Not after what happened with TLJ and Solo. Even with about 700+ from DOM, I think the OS drop is gonna be pretty palpable.

Not sure why you're assuming Shrek 2 jumps across the board.

 

I will grant that The Lion King is a monster, but it can't achieve that goal without massive support from China.

[MCKillswitch123]

Just now, cannastop said:

Not sure why you're assuming Shrek 2 jumps across the board.

 

I will grant that The Lion King is a monster, but it can't achieve that goal without massive support from China.

Because it's Frozen. It was already gigantic the 1st time around, but that was a movie that hit the zeitgeist as it went along. This will be enormous from the start, and, counting on good wom, still have great (although obviously not as great) legs along the way.

 

And I believe it has been said that TLK has big potential in China, so I'm counting on that.

[Darth Lehnsherr]

The thing with TROS's OS chances is that TLJ already hit very low numbers in many Asian and Latin America markets already. Other than China there's not much more room left to go down. If its gonna fall drastically OS from TLJ it'll be cause the big Star Wars markets such as UK, Europe, Australia/NZ and Japan also decrease in huge numbers too. 

 

 Would love for Frozen 2 to hit $1B OS since no animated movie has done that before but most likely gonna be in the $900M range.

 

 

[reddevil19]

2 minutes ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:

The thing with TROS's OS chances is that TLJ already hit very low numbers in many Asian and Latin America markets already. Other than China there's not much more room left to go down. If its gonna fall drastically OS from TLJ it'll be cause the big Star Wars markets such as UK, Europe, Australia/NZ and Japan also decrease in huge numbers too. 

 

 

 

I mean, it's a spin-off, so not a proper comparison, but still, Solo shows it CAN go lower... I think most traditional markets will increase, but I think Asia and Latin America can go lower than TLJ. Remains to be seen if it actually happens. Still loads of time for massive hype to increase.

[cannastop]

8 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Because it's Frozen. It was already gigantic the 1st time around, but that was a movie that hit the zeitgeist as it went along. This will be enormous from the start, and, counting on good wom, still have great (although obviously not as great) legs along the way.

 

And I believe it has been said that TLK has big potential in China, so I'm counting on that.

Isn't hitting the zeitgeist the first time around an argument that the sequel won't have a bump?

[Valonqar]

8 minutes ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:

The thing with TROS's OS chances is that TLJ already hit very low numbers in many Asian and Latin America markets already. Other than China there's not much more room left to go down. If its gonna fall drastically OS from TLJ it'll be cause the big Star Wars markets such as UK, Europe, Australia/NZ and Japan also decrease in huge numbers too. 

 

 

this is a great point that I didn't think of and now I'm revising my prediction that TROS will go down OS. Europe, Oz&NZ and Japan came to TLJ aid (with UK contributing 111M) so unless it goes down in these markets, it should make 712M (TLJ OS gross) and over assuming that finale factor will increase the interest. damn.

[MCKillswitch123]

6 minutes ago, cannastop said:

Isn't hitting the zeitgeist the first time around an argument that the sequel won't have a bump?

It would be an argument if it had achieved the zeitgeist from, like, opening weekend. Take the Infinity War example: it hit the zeitgeist, until Endgame came out and proved "LOLZ, you thought THAT was a zeitgeist?". Frozen was a gigantic hit, but it was one that basically proved itself to the audience as it ocurred. Frozen II is already a gigantically anticipated sequel that will surely have a massive opening weekend + probably great legs to boot. That's where I think the increase will come from: opening weekend(s). It won't have the 1st movie's legs, cause of course it won't, but it certainly can prove that the original did not hit the ceiling of what an animated movie can do at the box office.

 

@Darth Lehnsherr I think that very much can happen. TLJ had horrible legs pretty much everywhere, Solo TANKED HUGE OS (I mean, even Rogue One hit 500M OS, while Solo didn't even hit 200)..... if TROS matches TLJ's OS, it'll be due to legs and legs only, because I presume that general openings will be drastically inferior.

Edited May 26, 2019 by MCKillswitch123

[cannastop]

5 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

 did not hit the ceiling of what an animated movie can do at the box office.

I think that ceiling is the same for all movies.

[cookie]

Frozen II has a legit shot at Incredibles II numbers DOM if they nail it imo

[cannastop]

5 minutes ago, cookie said:

Frozen II has a legit shot at Incredibles II numbers DOM if they nail it imo

I just don't see it. Maybe $500m. Maybe even a decrease.