Memorial Weekend Thread: 4-Day Actuals - Aladdin $116.81M | John Wick 3 $30.97M | Avengers Endgame $22.06M | Pokemon DP $17.25M

[Maximum Avery]

9 minutes ago, cannastop said:

I think that ceiling is the same for all movies.

Do you have parents? Grandparents? Really religious family members? Friend who is into sports betting period... friend who is into games period... ? Ceiling isnt the same unles something revolutionary(not evolutuonary) like epic multiple people layered VR experience comes along.. a game changer

 

TTVOMJ

[cannastop]

2 minutes ago, Maximum Avery said:

Do you have parents? Grandparents? Really religious family members? Friend who is into sports betting period... friend who is into games period... ? Ceiling isnt the same unles something revolutionary(not evolutuonary) like epic multiple people layered VR experience comes along.. a game changer

 

TTVOMJ

What the fuck are you talking about?

[justvision]

3 minutes ago, cannastop said:

I just don't see it. Maybe $500m. Maybe even a decrease.

Nah, from the teaser trailer Frozen 2 has elements of superheroes on top of fantasy animation musicals. My prediction is Frozen 2 will do better than TLK world-wide.

[cannastop]

1 minute ago, justvision said:

Nah, from the teaser trailer Frozen 2 has elements of superheroes on top of fantasy animation musicals. My prediction is Frozen 2 will do better than TLK world-wide.

And how much do you think The Lion King will do?

[Valonqar]

1 minute ago, justvision said:

Nah, from the teaser trailer Frozen 2 has elements of superheroes on top of fantasy animation musicals. My prediction is Frozen 2 will do better than TLK world-wide.

any comparison between teaser/trailer views for F2, TLK and TROS? just curious who came out on top. doesn't mean anything in terms of boxoffice, though.

[lorddemaxus]

 

 

 

 

3

37 minutes ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:

The thing with TROS's OS chances is that TLJ already hit very low numbers in many Asian and Latin America markets already. Other than China there's not much more room left to go down. If its gonna fall drastically OS from TLJ it'll be cause the big Star Wars markets such as UK, Europe, Australia/NZ and Japan also decrease in huge numbers too. 

 

 Would love for Frozen 2 to hit $1B OS since no animated movie has done that before but most likely gonna be in the $900M range.

 

 

UK, Europe, Australia/NZ, and Japan likely won't decrease much. I'm expecting an increase in those markets if it increases in NA.

[Taruseth]

6 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

any comparison between teaser/trailer views for F2, TLK and TROS? just curious who came out on top. doesn't mean anything in terms of boxoffice, though.

TLK: (teaser) 224.6m (only behind Endgame trailer #1, #2 and IW #1) so #4

TLK: (trailer) 174m #7 (It teaser and IW trailer #2 are in front of it)

F2: (teaser) 116.4m  #14

TROS: (teaser) 111m #19

 

 

So, yes, Star Wars had the lowest numbers out of the three of them.

 

Edited May 26, 2019 by Taruseth

[Maximum Avery]

6 minutes ago, cannastop said:

What the fuck are you talking about?

What the f**k is so hard to understand? My parents would NEVER watch MCU or any superhero movie.. they barely survived LOTR... just an example of a demo that said f off to endgame.. this movie wasnt 5 quad.. if only it was... this actually tells us ceiling for movies now would be around 4b+

 

TTVOMJ

Edited May 26, 2019 by Maximum Avery
Typos

[The Horror of Lucas Films]

1 minute ago, Valonqar said:

any comparison between teaser/trailer views for F2, TLK and TROS? just curious who came out on top. doesn't mean anything in terms of boxoffice, though.

 

TROS’ trailer had 111M in the first 24h, which is not enough to be even in the Top 10 of biggest trailers ever. ⚰️

[cookie]

11 minutes ago, cannastop said:

I just don't see it. Maybe $500m. Maybe even a decrease.

The only real threat to its run is Jumanji. November is looking really lacking (family competition especially since Sonic moved) and a huge OW would be followed by a similarly huge Thanksgiving gross. With enough staying power to last Christmas I think it’s doable.

[The Horror of Lucas Films]

41 minutes ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:

The thing with TROS's OS chances is that TLJ already hit very low numbers in many Asian and Latin America markets already. Other than China there's not much more room left to go down. If its gonna fall drastically OS from TLJ it'll be cause the big Star Wars markets such as UK, Europe, Australia/NZ and Japan also decrease in huge numbers too. 

 

 Would love for Frozen 2 to hit $1B OS since no animated movie has done that before but most likely gonna be in the $900M range.

 

 

 

I used to say the same thing, tbh. "Wow, TLJ already hit extremely low numbers in Asia/LA, there's no way it can drop even more", and Solow managed to update the definitions of flop. I'm pretty sure that SW can always surprise us when it comes to doing awful numbers OS!

[jedijake]

Why do I get the sense that there are people trying to derail the thread (and have) just because Aladdin is a success and they want to now go after ALL of the remaining Disney films this year? Hmmm......

[lorddemaxus]

TROS has a higher teaser view count than any Star Wars teaser so it is good. The trailer views don't account for people who watched the trailer in the Star Wars celebration live stream. You can't compare films in different franchises lmao. It's only a problem if the TROS trailer (that will release in October) doesn't increase from the TROS teaser.

Edited May 26, 2019 by lorddemaxus

[Valonqar]

16 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

TLK: (teaser) 224.6m (only behind Endgame trailer #1, #2 and IW #1) so #4

TLK: (trailer) 174m #7 (It teaser and IW trailer #2 are in front of it)

F2: (teaser) 116.4m  #14

TROS: (teaser) 111m #19

 

 

So, yes, Star Wars had the lowest numbers out of the three of them.

 

and @The Horror of Lucas Films thank you very much!  TLK seems to have the most hyped fans but whether that translates into bigger BO than other 2 is uncertain. after all, 50 Shades trailers broke viewing records but movies not so much (not an adequate comparison I know). and @lorddemaxus

Edited May 26, 2019 by Valonqar

[nevermore]

3RD UPDATE, SUNDAY AM: Aladdin just flew to a higher atmosphere. Saturday ticket sales clocked $30M, a -3% dip when compared to Friday+previews figure of $31M. Industry estimates have the Disney live action animated reboot at $89.4Mover 3 days, and a 4-day of $112.7M, now the 5th best bow over Memorial Day weekend ahead of 2014’s X-men: Days of Future Past ($110.5M).

[Deja23]

23 minutes ago, nevermore said:

3RD UPDATE, SUNDAY AM: Aladdin just flew to a higher atmosphere. Saturday ticket sales clocked $30M, a -3% dip when compared to Friday+previews figure of $31M. Industry estimates have the Disney live action animated reboot at $89.4Mover 3 days, and a 4-day of $112.7M, now the 5th best bow over Memorial Day weekend ahead of 2014’s X-men: Days of Future Past ($110.5M).

Even better shot at $250m DOM now with ~2.8x legs for the 3-day OW. It’ll likely end up ~$30m higher than the higher end of the 4-day projections. I guess so many bought into the online chatter, myself included, that this is so unexpected. Wish I had done a $100 4-day club now lol. 

 

Aladdin played great everywhere, but its strongest plays were in the South and the West.

 

This is probably explains why some individual theater presales in tracking thread didn’t seem to correlate with Fandango presales. 

Edited May 26, 2019 by Deja23

[Yandereprime101189]

3 hours ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

@Yandereprime101189 Yeah, I had gotten the memo already. My memory of The Little Mermaid is clearly not the same as 98% of the people. Rewatch may be necessary.

 

@baumer I believe you've gotten quoted multiple times over this, but yeah, The Lion King has done a lot to warrant the predictions it's been getting. 780M WW in 1994 money, highest selling home video release of all time for many years, highest grossing 3D re-release of all time DOM (and maybe WW too, it's close between it and Titanic), highest grossing musical play of all time, one of the highest grossing album soundtracks of all time, a pop culture icon where every single song and money shot is well remembered, has been parodied hundreds of times and is still looked at fondly, and the remake trailers nearly broke 24 hour-view records and are the biggest trailers ever for family films by a long shot. Beauty And The Beast and The Jungle Book were never more popular than The Lion King. Hell, no animated movie was ever more popular than The Lion King - even Frozen. No chance it falls below a billion and I'm willing to bet real money on that.

 

Sorry man, lot of posts when I came home yesterday, didn't see where that happened 😛

[Julian1410]

3 hours ago, DAR said:

Speaking of the Broadway show of TLK, I hope He Lives in You makes its way into the film 

They would be stupid not to put it in there. But who would sing it? Cause i don’t see this rafiki actor pulling it of. Maybe beyonce can come in there. Isn’t She also supposed to sing ‘shadowlands’ in the movie?

[Maximum Avery]

44 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

TROS has a higher teaser view count than any Star Wars teaser so it is good. The trailer views don't account for people who watched the trailer in the Star Wars celebration live stream. You can't compare films in different franchises lmao. It's only a problem if the TROS trailer (that will release in October) doesn't increase from the TROS teaser.

There were 200k people watching youtube stream.. but i agree.. star wars are an outlier when it comes to trailer views.. same as It.. or perhaps even tlk for family movies... translation: if we count trailers as the only bo indicator then It would make around 580+, tlk would make 650m+, star wars would make 350m+ etc... if we judge them only in their "respective" fields/genre/franchise then things turn out differently, but each is a beast in their own right no questions asked...

 

TTVOMJ

Edited May 26, 2019 by Maximum Avery
Typos

[jedijake]

$250 million for Aladdin domestic seems very likely. Could go to $260 or $270 million if it keeps strong legs.