Memorial Weekend Thread: 4-Day Actuals - Aladdin $116.81M | John Wick 3 $30.97M | Avengers Endgame $22.06M | Pokemon DP $17.25M

[sfran43]

 

[WrathOfHan]

1 hour ago, TwoMisfits said:

So, let's stop the spiral and talk the tightness of theaters next weekend...

 

Right now, my 12s are looking for 4 screens (2 for KOTM, 1 for Rocketman/Ma) and 3 screens already, just during the presale period.  And they don't have that many films booked right now (by the numbers).  So, it's looking to be a tight weekend.  Some of the room will be easy to make - JW3/Pika/Endgame will be giving up their extra half screens and all be on 1 screen each...Dog's Journey/The Sun Is Also a Star/Hustle/The Intruder will be dumped of their partial screens...but then it gets hard.  Does Aladdin give up a screen only in its 2nd weekend?  Were the contracts of Booksmart and Brightburn required to keep the full screen or can they dump a 1/2 screen each and merge them (giving them an evening showing off the Aladdin screen, since 10pms don't sell much for Aladdin anyway)...should be an interesting week...right now, for my 12s, I'm expecting...

 

KOTM - 2 to 3

Rocketman - 1

Ma - 1

Aladdin - 2 to 3 (if it gives the screen, I expect KOTM gets it, so 5 between the 2)

JW3 - 1

Endgame - 1

Pika - 1

Brightburn - 1 (maybe)

Booksmart or Foreign Film (1 of my theaters didn't book Booksmart, but always has foreign films, so this would be it) - 1 (maybe)

The Also Rans - right now, there are 0 screens left, but if they don't have to fully protect the "killer B's" from this weekend, there could be room for a showing or two to save the "best performer" of the also-rans...and it's obvious to me - the "killer B's" will be gone by weekend 3 b/c it just gets tighter for SLOP and XMen...and that may be the weekend that it becomes Pika vs Endgame vs JW3 for the drop (or the share - which JW3 would share well with either:)...

 

Anyway, this just continues the feast/famine of May this year...we'll see if it continues in June, or if the littler films ever get a break to breathe and grow...it will probably take a large underperformer to do so...

 

I’d expect Pika’s night shows to be going away to put in Booksmart or extra Rocketman shows with the other having a full screen.

[sfran43]

 

[Legion Again]

9 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Let's use 40% drops next week onward for EG.

I’ll try my best, but I think the powers might be restricted to getting OWs over 100 😛    

 

Maybe FFH 3-day will be next good test case.

Edited May 26, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[WrathOfHan]

19 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

 

😈

[titanic2187]

Total Lifetime Grosses

Domestic:	$86,100,000	20.4%
+ Foreign:	$121,000,000	79.6%
= Worldwide:	$207,100,000

[ThomasNicole]

2 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

 

$ 19M Monday? Doubt it

 

But great result, should be close to $ 110M with actuals

[sfran43]

 

[raulbalarezo]

 

 

Edited May 26, 2019 by raulbalarezo

[A Marvel Fanboy]

1 minute ago, sfran43 said:

 

huge !!!

[MovieMan89]

Glad to see EG with a good hold finally, but the fact that it's lower in gross than IW's MD weekend illustrates why the post-OW performance DOM has been really underwhelming to me. 

[titanic2187]

TW	LW	Title (click to view)	Studio	Weekend Gross	% Change	Theater Count / Change		Average	Total Gross	Budget*	Week #
1	N	Aladdin (2019)	BV	$86,100,000	-	4,476	-	$19,236	$86,100,000	$183	1
2	1	John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum	LG/S	$24,350,000	-57.1%	3,850	-	$6,325	$100,988,941	-	2
3	2	Avengers: Endgame	BV	$16,841,000	-43.8%	3,810	-410	$4,420	$798,172,736	$356	5
4	3	Pokemon Detective Pikachu	WB	$13,300,000	-47.0%	3,824	-424	$3,478	$116,122,622	$150	3
5	N	Brightburn	SGem	$7,535,000	-	2,607	-	$2,890	$7,535,000	$6	1
6	N	Booksmart	UAR	$6,512,154	-	2,505	-	$2,600	$6,512,154	-	1
7	4	A Dog's Journey	Uni.	$4,090,000	-49.1%	3,279	+12	$1,247	$14,920,535	-	2
8	5	The Hustle	UAR	$3,812,554	-37.9%	2,377	-700	$1,604	$29,837,523	-	3
9	6	The Intruder (2019)	SGem	$2,265,000	-43.6%	1,612	-619	$1,405	$31,930,541	$8	4
10	7	Long Shot	LG/S	$1,565,000	-53.2%	1,354	-756	$1,156	$28,693,097	-	4
11	18	Dumbo (2019)	BV	$1,046,000	+238.2%	346	-69	$3,023	$112,701,413	$170	9
12	8	The Sun Is Also a Star	WB	$775,000	-69.1%	2,073	-	$374	$4,261,824	-	2
13	9	Poms	STX	$660,000	-69.7%	911	-1,839	$724	$12,373,111	-	3
14	10	Uglydolls	STX	$610,000	-65.7%	1,090	-940	$560	$18,830,142	$45	4
15	20	Biggest Little Farm	Neon	$492,350	+78.1%	180	+135	$2,735	$1,022,288	-	3
16	12	The Curse of La Llorona	WB (NL)	$435,000	-51.1%	359	-292	$1,212	$53,785,225	$9	6
17	11	Breakthrough	Fox	$369,000	-65.9%	551	-824	$670	$39,837,247	$14	6
18	13	Captain Marvel	BV	$359,000	-51.2%	300	-426	$1,197	$425,781,352	-	12
19	21	The White Crow	SPC	$357,361	+54.4%	356	+220	$1,004	$1,181,708	-	5
20	15	Shazam!	WB (NL)	$268,000	-59.4%	283	-253	$947	$138,503,556	$100	8
21	14	Tolkien	FoxS	$147,000	-79.9%	189	-1,312	$778	$4,339,650	-	3
22	22	Amazing Grace (2019)	Neon	$145,200	-34.2%	152	-75	$955	$4,000,632	-	25
23	19	Little	Uni.	$142,000	-49.2%	183	-131	$776	$40,448,710	$20	7
24	30	The Souvenir	A24	$141,496	+80.5%	23	+19	$6,152	$253,152	-	2
25	34	All Is True	SPC	$138,207	+124.2%	64	+44	$2,159	$295,062	-	3
26	25	Red Joan	IFC	$128,732	-22.3%	126	-66	$1,022	$1,389,752	-	6
27	36	Non-Fiction	IFC	$124,318	+119.2%	60	+35	$2,072	$315,188	-	4
28	40	Photograph	Amazon	$119,564	+234.0%	124	+111	$964	$169,374	-	2
29	26	How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World	Uni.	$117,000	-25.6%	157	-20	$745	$160,522,630	$129	14
30	N	Echo in the Canyon	Greenwich	$103,716	-	2	-	$51,858	$103,716	-	1
31	N	India's Most Wanted	FIP	$100,000	-	110	-	$909	$100,000	-	1
32	24	Pet Sematary (2019)	Par.	$80,000	-54.3%	133	-93	$602	$54,676,905	$21	8
33	31	Penguins (Disneynature)	BV	$75,000	+1.5%	60	-55	$1,250	$7,479,417	-	6
34	N	The Tomorrow Man	BST	$19,327	-	4	-	$4,832	$23,739	-	1
35	46	Unplanned	PFR	$17,000	-28.1%	64	-	$266	$18,077,548	$6	9
36	37	The Chaperone (2019)	PBS	$13,430	-64.1%	22	-90	$610	$266,792	-	9
37	N	The Proposal (2019)	Osci.	$12,100	-	1	-	$12,100	$12,100	-	1
38	N	The Spy Behind Home Plate	Ciesla	$10,250	-	1	-	$10,250	$10,250	-	1
39	N	Woodstock: Three Days That Defined a Generation	PBS	$8,150	-	2	-	$4,075	$8,150	-	1
40	54	The River and the Wall	Grav.	$4,500	-60.9%	3	-1	$1,500	$123,234	-	4
41	62	Meanest Man in Texas	Ammo	$3,100	-46.1%	2	-1	$1,550	$8,850	-	2
42	77	My Son	Cohen	$2,429	-24.5%	5	+1	$486	$13,787	-	3
43	81	Frank and Ava	Hann.	$499	-82.0%	2	-1	$250	$16,923	-	2

[sfran43]

 

[ThomasNicole]

Aladdin OS is really good, Deadline was expecting $ 100M

 

Honestly, i don’t see less than $ 400M. If Japan deliver could reach $ 450M

[charlie Jatinder]

4 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

 

Who estimates 14% on Memorial Day Sunday?

 

Disney. 

[Legion Again]

Disney being conservative as usual.    

 

Aladdin will need some really strong legs or Japan to hit 700M, but reception most places does seems strong, so perhaps a chance.

[MovieMan89]

Was hoping Aladdin could pull off 90, 300 will be really hard. I'm still going to believe it can do it based on what audience reception seems to be. Still think SLOP2 and TS4 could really hurt legs though. 

[filmlover]

Yeah, Aladdin's Sunday drop looks overestimated. I expect the actual will be closer to $89M for the 3-day portion.

[nguyenkhoi282]

9 minutes ago, raulbalarezo said:

 

Nice try. So naive thinking you can beat @sfran43

[Legion Again]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

Glad to see EG with a good hold finally, but the fact that it's lower in gross than IW's MD weekend illustrates why the post-OW performance DOM has been really underwhelming to me. 

It’s 2% above Disney’s estimate for IW. Actuals will be above IW actuals as well.