Memorial Weekend Thread: 4-Day Actuals - Aladdin $116.81M | John Wick 3 $30.97M | Avengers Endgame $22.06M | Pokemon DP $17.25M

[Deja23]

4 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

the home video/Blu-ray and streaming sales will cover most of the P&A costs so you don't need to worry about that. Aladdin will be a success if it can bring back the production budget from the theatrical run.

There won’t be any streaming sales if it goes straight to Disney+, but it should have healthy home video sales. 3x the prod budget gives it $550m. Should be able to get there. That’ll cover the P&A costs. Especially since going based off the international threads, Disney didn’t market the movie as much as they could’ve. 

[harry713]

"Bookmark" 

[cdsacken]

1 hour ago, Jiffy said:

Not a bad preview number... but yeah this is all still underwhelming given the potential for this project on paper. 

Fantastic in comparison to expectations from a month ago.

[Menor the Destroyer]

Oppositely to @Porthos I read too much into bad comps (Lego 2, Dragon 3), and downshifted too much. Still, not too horrible for my first time doing this sort of a prediction.

[Brainbug]

Thats a solid number. Not great, but certainly not anywhere near the "bad" region. Could lead to 80-100M 4-Day, which is a  - again - a very solid result.

[cdsacken]

1 hour ago, Ms Lady Hawk said:

Wow, Aladdin has a budget of ~185M. Can it make 500M world wide? Definitely seems possible. China will give about 50. If it has a 75M three day, then maybe give it like a 3.5 multiplier to 265M. That would mean 185 from the rest of the world. 

I'd gather 600+. If it does 650 it will be a decent profit maker. More than Shazam I imagine. Decent but not great.

Edited May 24, 2019 by cdsacken

[cdsacken]

1 hour ago, TalismanRing said:

They're  not-  they're just cutting and pasting earlier predictions.  They do it all the time until the 1pm PST update

 

4day gimme 90-95

[Menor the Destroyer]

Just now, cdsacken said:

4day gimme 90-95

I'm thinking 100+ tbh, even the multiplier of Pirates 5 gets it to 99 and the Pulse sales for Friday (so far) are very strong. Still early days though.

[cdsacken]

1 minute ago, Menor said:

I'm thinking 100+ tbh, even the multiplier of Pirates 5 gets it to 99 and the Pulse sales for Friday (so far) are very strong. Still early days though.

I'm just being conservative. Show me a strong true Friday number and I would love to hop on board the 100+ train.

[Menor the Destroyer]

Right now I'm gonna guess 7-24-28-26-21 for an 85 million 3-day, 106 million 4-day, that would be a pretty nice overperformance.

[wildphantom]

Here’s the thing. We can talk about how mediocre to terrible Disney’s handling has been of the marketing campaign. 

But....there is a massive potential audience for this film, if they can be convinced it’s worth coming out for. 

 

Not many movies have this much nostalgic appeal for a generation, but if the word is good - anything can happen. 

 

I’m open to this thing being the most interesting ‘wait and see’ in terms of where it ends up of the whole summer. 

 

Equally it might just do ok and be gone in a few weeks, but I just have this feeling a pretty surprising run may be in store...

[Barnack]

32 minutes ago, Deja23 said:

There won’t be any streaming sales if it goes straight to Disney+,

Disney+ initial launch is only a regional one I think no ?

https://whatsondisneyplus.com/when-will-disney-launch/

• Western Europe in Quarter 1/Quarter 2 of Fiscal year 2020
• Eastern Europe is later
• Asia-Pacific will be out throughout 2 years
• Latin America will be Q1 in Fiscal year 2021

[Nova]

I will say that judging by SLOP2 being a nothing burger, Aladdin may end up having a pretty good run in terms of legs for MDW openers. Not much competition until Toy Story 4 comes out. 

[Deja23]

1 minute ago, Nova said:

I will say that judging by SLOP2 being a nothing burger, Aladdin may end up having a pretty good run in terms of legs for MDW openers. Not much competition until Toy Story 4 comes out. 

Nothing burger? It’s 91% on RT...

 

@Barnack, didn’t realize that. Guess they will make some on streaming. 

Edited May 24, 2019 by Deja23

[cdsacken]

3 minutes ago, Barnack said:

Disney+ initial launch is only a regional one I think no ?

https://whatsondisneyplus.com/when-will-disney-launch/

• Western Europe in Quarter 1/Quarter 2 of Fiscal year 2020
• Eastern Europe is later
• Asia-Pacific will be out throughout 2 years
• Latin America will be Q1 in Fiscal year 2021

Western Europe Disney life. In England it was great and cost 5 pounds a month.

[PNF2187]

2 minutes ago, Deja23 said:

Nothing burger? It’s 91% on RT...

 

@Barnack, didn’t realize that. Guess they will make some on streaming. 

All the reviews have been 6/10 though. Despicable Me 3 also had a 92% at the same point and now it's at a 59%. Likewise with Aladdin.

[Nova]

13 minutes ago, Deja23 said:

Nothing burger? It’s 91% on RT...

 

@Barnack, didn’t realize that. Guess they will make some on streaming. 

Okay? I didn't realize a good RT score meant a great box office run.

 

 Judging by how its doing in the UK and how it's tracking, I'm not expecting much from it. 

 

Edit: 91% with 11 reviews and a 6.0 rating? 

Edited May 24, 2019 by Nova

[Sindreee]

18 minutes ago, Barnack said:

Disney+ initial launch is only a regional one I think no ?

https://whatsondisneyplus.com/when-will-disney-launch/

• Western Europe in Quarter 1/Quarter 2 of Fiscal year 2020
• Eastern Europe is later
• Asia-Pacific will be out throughout 2 years
• Latin America will be Q1 in Fiscal year 2021

North America is also in Quarter 1 of Fiscal year 2020. 

[RealLyre]

50 minutes ago, Deja23 said:

There won’t be any streaming sales if it goes straight to Disney+, but it should have healthy home video sales. 3x the prod budget gives it $550m. Should be able to get there. That’ll cover the P&A costs. Especially since going based off the international threads, Disney didn’t market the movie as much as they could’ve. 

it's not like Disney+ is free. they'll still get money from all the people who use it. it's actually more convenient for them than licensing it to say Netflix or any other streaming service.

[Sindreee]

7 minutes ago, Nova said:

Okay? I didn't realize a good RT score meant a great box office run.

 

 Judging by how its doing in the UK and how it's tracking, I'm not expecting much from it. 

 

Edit: 91% with 11 reviews and a 6.0 rating? 

And 0 top critics.