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Memorial Weekend Thread: 4-Day Actuals - Aladdin $116.81M | John Wick 3 $30.97M | Avengers Endgame $22.06M | Pokemon DP $17.25M

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On 5/24/2019 at 8:59 PM, VenomXXR said:

Glad Aladdin is showing us a whole new world of tracking and estimates. 

$86m 3-day, $105m 4-day is my prediction. Final around $230m.

 

 

Gonna toot my own horn on this one, even if it ends up being low. 

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I think there is still a chance for Endgame to pass Avatar, but it is less than 50%. Maybe 25% at this point.

 

Best case scenario as of right now, is 50- 55 more DOM and 35-40 more OS. That leaves it  about 15M shy. Can it leg out like CM did? Only time will tell. The box office can be so fluid because we don’t know how new releases will perform and what their corresponding effects will be on other movies. Now, more than ever DOM must start holding much better.  

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9 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I just can't wait to see the hypocrisy on display if it takes a re-release to push it over and the Cameron loonies lose their shit when they know good and well Avatar added a nice little chunk of change from a re-release. 

Very well could happen and they should do that. In fact I hope it happens exactly that way, ending $1 million over Avatar

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2 minutes ago, Ms Lady Hawk said:

I think there is still a chance for Endgame to pass Avatar, but it is less than 50%. Maybe 25% at this point.

 

Best case scenario as of right now, is 50- 55 more DOM and 35-40 more OS. That leaves it  about 15M shy. Can it leg out like CM did? Only time will tell. The box office can be so fluid because we don’t know how new releases will perform and what their corresponding effects will be on other movies. Now, more than ever DOM must start holding much better.  

Question is why would they leave it 15 short? They didn't produce Avatar, they had nothing to do with. One re-release would easily be enough.

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8 minutes ago, JimiQ said:

Think of all the movie stars that want those bragging rights too, especially RDJ. I understand that is not the case of miss Saldana though :D

Miss Saldana would go down in history as starring in two movies from different franchises that ended up #1 WW. :worthy: has anyone else achieve that feat aside Cameron topping himself?

Edited by Valonqar
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1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

Why exactly did it fall so hard OS this week? I mean -70% seems excessive, what happened? 

Well China ended it’s run without an extension for some reason. The OS-C drop is only 60%, Aladdin related. 

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5 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Why exactly did it fall so hard OS this week? I mean -70% seems excessive, what happened? 

China is gone entirely. Even without China it fell because theater count got crushed internationally. Domestically it will be Pikachu that dies outright now. We'll have to see how EG holds up. IW did 51 million domestically after Monday.

Edited by cdsacken
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Top 10 Domestic Movies    
by distributor    
     
Rank ►
Year ▼
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Disney
Total
Disney
Total $
Disney
Total %
2009 F P W     W P W F W 1 $293M 9.0%
2010     P   W W U P P   3 $950M 33.2%
2011 W P   W   U P   W P 2 $433M 17.4%
2012   W   S W   S   U P 2 $861M 26.0%
2013       U W W   W U   4 $1313M 41.4%
2014 W       W W P   F   4 $1057M 38.6%
2015   U     U U   F   S 4 $1953M 48.8%
2016       U   F   W W U 5 $2132M 56.3%
2017     W S   S W   U W 4 $1829M 48.1%
2018       U W F U P   F 4 $2204M 55.3%
2019*     U U W W     U   4 $1455M 64.1%
     
  Key Total    
    Disney (Marvel Studios) 13    
    Disney (other) 10    
    Disney (Pixar) 7    
    Disney (Animation Studios) 4    
    Disney (Lucasfilm) 3    
    Disney total 37    
  W Warner Bros. 25    
  U Universal 16    
  P Paramount 11    
  F FOX 7    
  S Sony 5    
    non-W/U/P/F/S studios 9    
    non-Disney total 73    
     
Note: Does not retroactively consider FOX
releases as Disney releases
   

 

* 2019 results not final

 

I hope some other studios make it into the Top 10 this year like Pets 2 and It Chapter 2 since other studios ceded the year by moving Wonder Woman 2 and Bond out which would have or could have charted. Aladdin's performance may mean 2 (w/ The Lion King) movies outside of Disney's big four studios made it into the Top 10 when the year's over, with Frozen 2, Toy Story 4, and The Rise of Skywalker also contenders for a total of ~7.

Edited by MagnarTheGreat
swapped colors for 2014, 2017, 2018
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2 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Why exactly did it fall so hard OS this week? I mean -70% seems excessive, what happened? 

Maybe China run ending. The extension was applied for, but China didn’t grant it. Probably would’ve gotten $5-10m more with extension. Plus, multiple openers in major OS territories like UK. 

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2 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Well China ended it’s run without an extension for some reason. The OS-C drop is only 60%, Aladdin related. 

Cameron clearly throwing his weight around to sabotage it.

 

Spoiler

Relax people, issa joke

 

Spoiler

Or is it

 

 

 

Edited by MovieMan89
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Disney characteristically lowballing estimates. Just as how WB overshoots, Disney underrates. 

 

3 day should be 89-90, 4 day ~115, which sets it up well for 280 by the end, maybe closer to 300 if WOM holds (CinemaScore and other audience meters bode well for it, feels like a Jurassic World situation).

 

Honestly think it can get to 700 WW which is a big win, especially considering the flop predictions. Honestly if Disney has not messed up marketing it could have made 1B. Very uncharacteristic of Disney to have messed up, they normally have one of the best ad divisions in the industry. 

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1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

Cameron clearly throwing his weight around to sabotage it.

 

  Hide contents

Relax people, issa joke

 

  Hide contents

Or is it

 

 

 

Nah he'd want it to break it so he could break it again.

Edited by cdsacken
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2 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Question is why would they leave it 15 short? They didn't produce Avatar, they had nothing to do with. One re-release would easily be enough.

I wish I had the answer. Playing devil’s advocate, maybe Disney wants Avatar to stay number 1 because they want to market Avatar 2 as the sequel to the biggest movie of all time. There is no incentive other than bragging rights to have Endgame number 1. 

 

Disney has a lot for which to be pleased. They have money to burn. Aladdin did great. They have several other films coming down the pike this year with billion dollar potential. Endgame’s performance was well above their highest expectations. I don’t think they care either way whether Endgame or Avatar is number 1. 

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4 minutes ago, MagnarTheGreat said:
Top 10 Domestic Movies  
by distributor  
   
  1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10  
2009                      
2010                      
2011                      
2012                      
2013                      
2014                      
2015                      
2016                      
2017                      
2018                      
2019*                      
   
  Key  
    Disney (Marvel Studios)
    Disney (Pixar)  
    Disney (other)  
    Disney (Animation Studios)
    Disney (Lucasfilm)  
    all other distributors  

 

* 2019 results not final

 

I hope some other studios make it into the Top 10 this year like Pets 2 and It Chapter 2 since other studios ceded the year by moving Wonder Woman 2 and Bond out which would have or could have charted. Aladdin's performance may mean 2 (w/ The Lion King) movies outside of Disney's big four studios made it into the Top 10 when the year's over, with Frozen 2, Toy Story 4, and The Rise of Skywalker also contenders for a total of ~7.

Your color coding is slightly off.

 

Beauty and the Beast (2017) was not Pixar.

 

The Incredibles 2 (2018) was Pixar.

 

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1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

I think even Cameron knows there's like a 1% chance for Avatar 2 to beat the first's gross. Unless China is giving us like $1b for it. 

Watch Avatar 2 get pushed back a year once again to Christmas 2022 so that he can accomplish glassless 3D.

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6 minutes ago, syntaxerror said:

Disney characteristically lowballing estimates. Just as how WB overshoots, Disney underrates. 

 

3 day should be 89-90, 4 day ~115, which sets it up well for 280 by the end, maybe closer to 300 if WOM holds (CinemaScore and other audience meters bode well for it, feels like a Jurassic World situation).

 

Honestly think it can get to 700 WW which is a big win, especially considering the flop predictions. Honestly if Disney has not messed up marketing it could have made 1B. Very uncharacteristic of Disney to have messed up, they normally have one of the best ad divisions in the industry

Disney's marketing performance has suffered ever since Dave Hollis and Ricky Strauss left. The new distribution and marketing leadership aren't as good.

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