Memorial Weekend Thread: 4-Day Actuals - Aladdin $116.81M | John Wick 3 $30.97M | Avengers Endgame $22.06M | Pokemon DP $17.25M

[MovieMan89]

6 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

A lot of teen girls showed up for Aladdin in my theater. Romance, beautiful actors, music, no wonder female audience was 59% if I'm not mistaken.

If Disney had actually marketed to that audience the way they did with BatB, we could have been looking at an opening way higher. Instead they chose to hide Jasmine in the marketing. 

Edited May 26, 2019 by MovieMan89

[filmscholar]

7 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

A lot of teen girls showed up for Aladdin in my theater. Romance, beautiful actors, music, no wonder female audience was 59% if I'm not mistaken.

True, Aladdin got a lot of audience this weekend obviously, I guess I was talking more male as far as Endgame and Wick.   The Girls really came out for Aladdin for sure.   Aladdin performance makes me feel "Little Mermaid' will be a knock in the park.   BATB is still the biggest one right now.  We will see what "Lion King" Does in a few months.  

Edited May 26, 2019 by filmscholar

[RamblinRed]

If it's really close I could see Disney pulling it across but it has to be something they can do in one weekend. Other than AWIT they have never shown any desire to keep a movie in a theater to reach a benchmark. 

 

In general they are one of the fastest to pull a movie out of a theater because they feel they can make more money by getting it into streaming and home releases than they can keeping it in a theater for an extra week or two.

 

Since they are primarily an entertainment content provider and not a movie studio they seem to care less about movie records than some of the other studios. 

 

EG could potentially disappear a little quick for them to push. Next weekend it will be #5 or 6 at the box office. The following week #8 or 9. It is likely to be out of the top 10 before FFH ever releases, which would mean gone from multiplexes of less than 10 screens and likely on one smaller screen at large multiplexes.

 

I'll also add since we know it made at least 31M on Friday and another 29-30 M on Saturday they are clearly doing the typical Disney lowballing in the estimates for Aladdin. (86 and 105 are significant underestimates). 

Right now they are saying 31, 29.6, 25.5.

25.5 is way too low for Sunday based on previous years- it is likely to be anywhere from 28 on the low end to 30 on the high end. Then should expect around a 20% drop on Monday.

I'm thinking more 31, 29.6. 29, 23.2. - that would be 89.6 and 112.8. Wouldn't shock me to be 90+ and 115 either if WOM is truly what some think it is.

[Eric Atreides]

Just now, RamblinRed said:

If it's really close I could see Disney pulling it across but it has to be something they can do in one weekend. Other than AWIT they have never shown any desire to keep a movie in a theater to reach a benchmark. 

You clearly did not remember Black Panther's epic and lengthy climb to 700M.

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, CoolEric258 said:

You clearly did not remember Black Panther's epic and lengthy climb to 700M.

Or Tangled's trek to $200M almost a decade ago lol.

[charlie Jatinder]

29 minutes ago, catlover said:

Wait, what? That Indonesian number is beyond my expectation! Buzz was almost non existence. Musical is not a favorite genre here. There was a riot in the capital city on the same day as Aladdin's OD. So I didn't expect much. But the reception is overwhelmingly good. A Whole New World is suddenly a hit again after almost 30 years. The WOM's gonna be great. With this OW it could outgross BatB, which is currently the biggest musical film ever.

And during Ramadan which is relatively weak in Muslim countries. I assume there will be local films else it would have exploded in 3rd weekend.

[JohnnyGossamer]

Aladdin has the feel of a movie that will have impressive legs. Maybe even get close to 300 DOM. Audiences seem to love it.

[Valonqar]

7 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

If Disney had actually marketed to that audience the way they did with BatB, we could have been looking at an opening way higher. Instead they chose to hide Jasmine in the marketing. 

true that was a mistake cause Jasmine is the MVP with a power song. 

 

@filmscholar agreed, Little Mermaid is their next superhit after TLK. Zendaya (actual known name like Emma Watson) + Aquaman SFX + songs + romance. it's gonna be huge.

[Valonqar]

4 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

You clearly did not remember Black Panther's epic and lengthy climb to 700M.

BP's climb to 700M is justified cause they needed all advantages they could get to lock BP's Picture nom. so 700M and #1 movie of 2018 dom looked better than under 700M (with a threat from IW to edge it out for #1). 

[titanic2187]

32 minutes ago, catlover said:

Wait, what? That Indonesian number is beyond my expectation! Buzz was almost non existence. Musical is not a favorite genre here. There was a riot in the capital city on the same day as Aladdin's OD. So I didn't expect much. But the reception is overwhelmingly good. A Whole New World is suddenly a hit again after almost 30 years. The WOM's gonna be great. With this OW it could outgross BatB, which is currently the biggest musical film ever.

You have underestimate how an Arabic culture was a adding point in Muslim-majority countries.  

[MovieMan89]

2 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

true that was a mistake cause Jasmine is the MVP with a power song. 

 

@filmscholar agreed, Little Mermaid is their next superhit after TLK. Zendaya (actual known name like Emma Watson) + Aquaman SFX + songs + romance. it's gonna be huge.

Speaking of TLM, I just found out Jane Goldman is doing the screenplay. She's yet to really have a dud in her screenplay catalog, so that bodes extremely well for the movie. 

[charlie Jatinder]

24 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

So a worldwide total around $600m seems likely with that opening. 

 

Ok considering the bad buzz, but I never expected Aladdin to gross less than... eh, Maleficent ($760m). 

What. Maleficent did 760. That's sound too big. Ofcourse ER was soft back then, but there isn't any country where it did great, except Mexico perhaps.

And $404mn OS-Japan-China from $102mn OW approx. Roughly same as Aladdin.

 

Alright that's the target set for Aladdin.

400 + 50 China + 65 Japan + 280 Dom ~ 800

 

[charlie Jatinder]

4 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

You have underestimate how an Arabic culture was a adding point in Muslim-majority countries.  

No. He is right. The number is big for Ramdan release.

[Tentatek]

Saw booksmart.

 

It was not funny at all. There was like one genuinely funny scene that actually reminds me of mean girls. The rest are unnecessarily  vulgar, dumb and cringey. There’s fuck, vagina, lesbian, drugs jokes every three seconds of the movie. 

 

 

 

It’s flopping?

 

Edited May 26, 2019 by Tentatek

[filmlover]

I wonder where Disney plans on putting The Little Mermaid because it's supposed to start shooting early next year and something like March 2021 feels out of the question for such a VFX heavy project (or even July, for that matter). Maybe Thanksgiving 2021 since Christmas probably isn't happening due to Avatar. I'm guessing they'll announce at D23.

Edited May 26, 2019 by filmlover

[charlie Jatinder]

300 needs 3.37x FSS, not entirely out of the box since Maleficent did 3.49 and TJB did 3.53. 

[Sindreee]

7 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

What. Maleficent did 760. That's sound too big. Ofcourse ER was soft back then, but there isn't any country where it did great, except Mexico perhaps.

And $404mn OS-Japan-China from $102mn OW approx. Roughly same as Aladdin.

 

Alright that's the target set for Aladdin.

400 + 50 China + 65 Japan + 280 Dom ~ 800

 

$63m in Japan and $37 in Russia was good.

[MovieMan89]

Aladdin should have had Dumbo's spot on the calendar, the legs would have been insane. Granted I realize why Disney would want Aladdin in the summer, but unless they were willing to sit on it until 2020, summer was too competitive this year. 

[jedijake]

What Disney needs to do now is two things. (1) They NEED to release Speechless and maybe the new Whole New World as radio singles. The former should have been released as a single at least a week before the movie. (2) they NEED to somehow market this with the 93% audience score in mind. Pump the HELL out of that and milk it for all it's worth. The audience has spoken! 93% on Rotten Tomatoes. People everywhere are raving about it. And, while they are at it, show ACTUAL people talking about how they loved the movie. Enough truly have to do this. 

 

Thing is, as we all know, since Disney has crowded their field, they will be ramping up TS4 and also TLK HEAVILY in the next week or two so I don't know how much new marketing they can squeeze in for Aladdin. Maybe just do this for another week or two to get it past SLOP2. It has already overshadowed and crushed Pika.

[filmlover]

8 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Aladdin should have had Dumbo's spot on the calendar, the legs would have been insane. Granted I realize why Disney would want Aladdin in the summer, but unless they were willing to sit on it until 2020, summer was too competitive this year. 

I mean, it already beat tracking which hinted at a possible sub-$80M 4-day by a lot following months of doom and gloom. Although for some reason even after all that I always had a feeling it would pull through with a surprise and deliver huge numbers simply because the original is so beloved if only the movie had turned out acceptable (which it did). Also helped that it solidified itself as the next big 4 quadrant event movie after Avengers.