Memorial Weekend Thread: 4-Day Actuals - Aladdin $116.81M | John Wick 3 $30.97M | Avengers Endgame $22.06M | Pokemon DP $17.25M

[baumer]

if I'm wrong about the Lion King it certainly will not be the first time and it won't be the last time that I will be wrong about a movie. But I believe in my analysis and we'll see who's right very shortly.

[Legion Again]

Just now, Charlie Jatinder said:

Endgame is about to be.

Damn, a record that will stand for decades. Amazing.

[Deja23]

I think TLK will beat Incredibles 2. That movie was coming off 14 years of nostalgia and it did $600m. TLK has even more nostalgia than that, plus the soundtracks, Broadway shows, etc. it’ll be huge. No, I’m not expecting $2b WW or $800m DOM, but I think $1.3-1.5b is reasonable range. That first teaser really did well in gauging interest. Way more than something like Pikachu as that keeps getting brought up. The animated Pokemon movies weren’t massive, TLK’s rerelease alone did more than all the past Pokemon movies. And it did amazing in its first run. A few people might be over predicting it with $2b or over Endgame, but under $400m is definitely under predicting it.

[charlie Jatinder]

If TLK go under 401mn, my Disney 4Bn club will be very close 

[Legion Again]

Huge % of people saw Incredibles and thought “I want a sequel.” Then half a dozen years later happen to be think about it out of the blue and think,”damn, how cool would a sequel be.”     

 

Not a lot of people watch TLK and think “wow, I hope they remake this in CGI in 25 years.”       

 

I’m not saying it’ll do bad, but I think there is a very wide range this far out. Gimme some reviews and some Ps and we can narrow things a bit more, but you can never remove that much uncertainty until the OW is happening. Last several years are absolutely rife with movies doing way more or way less than this board though a week before debut.

[TwoMisfits]

5 minutes ago, baumer said:

I just think you guys are making a lot of assumptions. You're assuming that because the jungle book made a certain amount and you're assuming that because Beauty and the Beast made a certain amount that the Lion King is going to make more. That's a lot of assumptions in my opinion.

I'm gonna back baumer's thoughts...but not b/c I'm in 100% agreement, but instead, b/c I'm not sure either way...

 

One thing I know...it's REALLY hard to get $650M at the BO...so the folks thinking "that's easy"...well, it's not...you have to not only have a quality movie (notice I didn't say great movie, b/c great movies almost never go that high...but a quality one that is not off-putting or divisive), but you also have to usually "hit the zeitgeist" timing and have a favorable theater set and schedule...

 

I think Spidey is gonna be a huge audience draw, only 2 weeks prior...I think families are going to be getting into the depths of summer and starting to turn elsewhere with their money...but I also think this could draw the way Black Panther did, the one off movie goer coming out for the community experience - but then again, maybe it won't, b/c it's still just animals...

 

So, I've said since March that Spidey will win the summer...and I don't think Spidey's going $600M...heck, I'm not certain it's going $500M...so put a gun to my head, and I'm in the baumer camp of TLK going sub $500M...but I'm not so certain, especially with the movie actually unseen by anyone, to say that this is gonna definitely be the case...maybe it will be a magical, must see experience...or maybe it will be yet another rehash of my childhood, skippable with Disney+ 2 months sooner...

 

It's the certainty of most posters that's surprising me...til you know the quality, you just can't "know know" how it will play...you can just have an educated guess...

 

 

[ThomasNicole]

14 minutes ago, baumer said:

How many views did Pikachu have?

Way less considering it didn't even enter the list of most viewed trailers

 

TLK trailers are doing Infinity War views... the teaser made 224M and the trailer made 174M, that's huge especially for a family movie and there's no way to deny it.

 

I think you're just doing the opposite that you are criticizing which didn't make sense... you are pointing out how absurd is people expecting $ 800M DOM but is also saying it could do less than The Jungle Book. Both arguments are absurds because realistic speaking, the movie will probably be right in the middle of the opposites [so let's say around 600M].

[cdsacken]

8 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

Solid job making a wild assumption in a post telling people to stop making assumptions

Hey I will eat crow it's my prediction. Like his. His isn't wild it's just bold. Eat a snickers.

[SchumacherFTW]

Baumer and I have been discussing this separately, we both agree that this doesn't feel like as big a deal, or close to as demanded as BATB was. Its gonna be big, but sub 1bn is certainly possible. 

[cdsacken]

8 minutes ago, baumer said:

if I'm wrong about the Lion King it certainly will not be the first time and it won't be the last time that I will be wrong about a movie. But I believe in my analysis and we'll see who's right very shortly.

Yep I'm wrong all the time. Just ask my wife.

[Sindreee]

14 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Both were just decent. Lion King will be 90% RT or higher imo

Based on what?

[cdsacken]

1 minute ago, Sindreee said:

Based on what?

By a pure guess? Could be totally wrong but I did say end game reception would be close to BP. Nailed that one. 

[filmscholar]

The "Lion King" adjust to 803 Million Domestic.   "Endgame" is just now about to hit that mark to show you how  many tickets the original sold.   The idea is that the franchise is still popular so a Live Action should do well.  But there are some x-factors involved as well with it going from animated to live action.   As far as the Disney Live Action, this one will be one of the heavy hitters.   "Lion King"  will have to take down JB first then BATB which is the bar for what these reimaginings can do.  Here's the list so far:

 

     

a1	Beauty and the Beast (2017)	BV	$504,014,165	4,210	$174,750,616	4,210	3/17/17
2	The Jungle Book (2016)	BV	$364,001,123	4,144	$103,261,464	4,028	4/15/16
3	Alice in Wonderland (2010)	BV	$334,191,110	3,739	$116,101,023	3,728	3/5/10
4	Maleficent	BV	$241,410,378	3,948	$69,431,298	3,948	5/30/14
5	Oz The Great and Powerful	BV	$234,911,825	3,912	$79,110,453	3,912	3/8/13
6	Cinderella (2015)	BV	$201,151,353	3,848	$67,877,361	3,845	3/13/15
7	101 Dalmatians (1996)	BV	$136,189,294	2,901	$33,504,025	2,794	11/27/96
8	Dumbo (2019)	BV	$112,701,413	4,259	$45,990,748	4,259	3/29/19
9	Aladdin (2019)	BV	$86,100,000	4,476	$86,100,000	4,476	5/24/19
10	Alice Through the Looking Glass	BV	$77,041,381	3,763	$26,858,726	3,763	5/27/16
11	Pete's Dragon (2016)	BV	$76,233,151	3,702	$21,514,095	3,702	8/12/16

 

 

 

I guess they don't count this version as a "Reimagining" even though it was:

 

 

This made 43 Million back in 94 and adjust to about 90 now.  

[ThomasNicole]

IW teaser: 230M views

TLK teaser: 224M views

 

IW trailer: 179M views

TLK trailer: 174M views

 

I really couldn't see how this "doesn't feel that big". I'm not on the $ 2B locked train, but unless the movie gets Transformers reception by critics / audience, it's really hard to see sub 1B.

[cdsacken]

4 minutes ago, SchumacherFTW said:

Baumer and I have been discussing this separately, we both agree that this doesn't feel like as big a deal, or close to as demanded as BATB was. Its gonna be big, but sub 1bn is certainly possible. 

Create the club. I want to see it how many agree. It's a crazy bold one. Huge bragging rights if correct. 

[XXR vs XXR]

3 minutes ago, SchumacherFTW said:

Baumer and I have been discussing this separately, we both agree that this doesn't feel like as big a deal, or close to as demanded as BATB was. Its gonna be big, but sub 1bn is certainly possible. 

 

And what is the analysis for "demand" that would lead to this assumption? 24-hour trailer views are nearly double what BATB did. Audience anticipation based on that (API score) is 2nd only to Endgame, ever. So far this is the only indication of demand, and it blows away all other family movies. 

 

On Trailer Impact, audiences have responded with an Average Positive Interest (API) score ranging between 85 and 90 percent between last December and as recently as last weekend. By comparison, Avengers: Endgame scored 94 percent leading up to release with half as many respondents as Lion King, while Incredibles 2 averaged 86 percent last summer (again, with far fewer respondents).

 

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-tracking-lion-king/

 

[ThomasNicole]

3 minutes ago, Sindreee said:

Based on what?

Disney showed footage from TLK in private events for a while, every time it got raves.

Last time it was on cinemacon just a month ago, and it's the best received footage of the event along with Toy Story 4.

 

of course this doesn't lock 90% on RT, but indicates a really solid project, especially because they also showed Aladdin footage on that same event and the reception are mixed just like the reviews.

[Geo1500]

I am hearing about TLK alot but what about the elephant in the room. MULAN! I think Mulan would do 1.3-1.5B or is it just me? I would love to hear your take on this one. 

 

300-400 DOM

500-600 OS

[jedijake]

$1.7 billion "feels" like the floor for TLK WW to me. But that's not really based on anything but my gut.

[charlie Jatinder]

Fuck it. Single $ less than JW adjusted for inflation is right there disaspointing.