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Memorial Weekend Thread: 4-Day Actuals - Aladdin $116.81M | John Wick 3 $30.97M | Avengers Endgame $22.06M | Pokemon DP $17.25M

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3 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

And what is the analysis for "demand" that would lead to this assumption? 24-hour trailer views are nearly double what BATB did. Audience anticipation based on that (API score) is 2nd only to Endgame, ever. So far this is the only indication of demand, and it blows away all other family movies. 

 

On Trailer Impact, audiences have responded with an Average Positive Interest (API) score ranging between 85 and 90 percent between last December and as recently as last weekend. By comparison, Avengers: Endgame scored 94 percent leading up to release with half as many respondents as Lion King, while Incredibles 2 averaged 86 percent last summer (again, with far fewer respondents).

 

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-tracking-lion-king/

 

BATB broke those records back in the day as well though. I'm just going by anecdotal evidence, but there felt like a fever pitch of buzz for BATB in my circles, while a lot of people are still wondering why this is necessary. Doesn't mean they won't see it, but it feels like a relevant thing to consider. 

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5 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Disney showed footage from TLK in private events for a while, every time it got raves.

Last time it was on cinemacon just a month ago, and it's the best received footage of the event along with Toy Story 4.

 

of course this doesn't lock 90% on RT, but indicates a really solid project, especially because they also showed Aladdin footage on that same event and the reception are mixed just like the reviews.

Yep that's my prediction. Not locking anything.

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44 minutes ago, baumer said:

Lion King passing Endgame is hilarious. Some of you guys are setting yourself up for such a disappointment when this grosses less than 400 mill.

1

Who predicts that? That's like a super, super incredibly optimistic scenario.

27 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

How do you explain 224mn teaser views?

 

In country like India, it has 17k Interested count on Bookmyshow, almost 50 days out release, when Aladdin was at same level just 15 days out. And here it isn't that nostalgic even, its Just trailer worked in big way.

It, Fifty Shades?

What I want to say is, that teaser views can be incredibly high without the movie being really big and while the two movies I mentioned above are both directed towards an adult audience I think the fact that TLK has incredible nostalgia might push the view count up in a similar way. The important word here is may as I think it will perform good, no doubts about that.

 

 

And if we are being honest 400m Dom and something like 550-600m OS wouldn't be a disaster.

 

Right now I am kinda torn about this movie like I want to see it and all that and I see the interest is clearly there, but I also am cautious about it because Aladdin and Dumbo didn't perform well and maybe people are interested but that won't be enough to get them into the cinema.

 

Right now I could see both extremes, like a version, where it does just something like 150m 2.6x 390m, but neither would I be all that surprised if this movie does something like 240m 3x 720m and if the RT score and the final marketing is mind blowing the sky is the limit.

 

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My final word on TLK (2019) is this, and after this comment I'll wait until we start getting real numbers (presales.)

Since I entered adulthood (I'm 30), my mother (who is now 68) has only ever asked me to see 2 films without me asking her if she wants to go see them first. That's TFA and TLK (2019). 

Obviously reception and WOM matter in the end. If this movie is trash, then my points are moot. If it's what I expect it to be, which is at least TJB level in terms of quality and WOM, then it's going to absolutely decimate the box office. This will be the ultimate nostalgia film and the story is open enough to not only rely on nostalgia to sell it in places where there isn't any. 

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11 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

IW teaser: 230M views

TLK teaser: 224M views

 

IW trailer: 179M views

TLK trailer: 174M views

 

 I really couldn't see how this "doesn't feel that big". I'm not on the $ 2B locked train, but unless the movie gets Transformers reception by critics / audience, it's really hard to see sub 1B.

TLK trailer legs were horrible though, that initial teaser which hit all the big numbers, look at its viewcount on youtube right now, it's actually behind Detective Pikachu at only 64M, that original Infinity War trailer is at 227M now.  I think those 24 hours view for TLK teaser might be heavily inflated by some facebook/twitter number, YouTube main video has roughly the same view count as Pikachu in the first day and is follow similar trajectory (really bad legs) in views after the first day. 

The views for TLK "official trailer" main video on youtube is not impressive at all, sitting at only 32M after 1.5 month...

Edited by NCsoft
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1 minute ago, Taruseth said:

Who predicts that? That's like a super, super incredibly optimistic scenario.

It, Fifty Shades?

What I want to say is, that teaser views can be incredibly high without the movie being really big and while the two movies I mentioned above are both directed towards an adult audience I think the fact that TLK has incredible nostalgia might push the view count up in a similar way. The important word here is may as I think it will perform good, no doubts about that.

 

 

And if we are being honest 400m Dom and something like 550-600m OS wouldn't be a disaster.

 

Right now I am kinda torn about this movie like I want to see it and all that and I see the interest is clearly there, but I also am cautious about it because Aladdin and Dumbo didn't perform well and maybe people are interested but that won't be enough to get them into the cinema.

 

Right now I could see both extremes, like a version, where it does just something like 150m 2.6x 390m, but neither would I be all that surprised if this movie does something like 240m 3x 720m and if the RT score and the final marketing is mind blowing the sky is the limit.

 

It had record opening for horror. Also there was anomoly as Facebook views were higher than normal.

 

Fifty Shades; 1) porn 2) it did opened huge.

 

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I am not convinced that most adults who grew up with the lion king now are itching for a CGI version.

 

It will attract a huge young audience but don't think it is going to be the massive four quad 2 billion that some of you are predicting. 

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8 minutes ago, NCsoft said:

TLK trailer legs were horrible though, that initial teaser which hit all the big numbers, look at its viewcount on youtube right now, it's actually behind Detective Pikachu at only 64M, that original Infinity War trailer is at 227M now.  I think those 24 hours view for TLK teaser might be heavily inflated by some facebook/twitter number, YouTube main video has roughly the same view count as Pikachu in the first day and is follow similar trajectory (really bad legs) in views after the first day. 

The views for TLK "official trailer" main video on youtube is not impressive at all, sitting at only 32M after 1.5 month...

TLK main channel had 17mn views on 24 hours. There were various other uploads. Disney India uploads stands at 16mn.

 

Twitter views were huge as well. My timeline was as it was an semi Avenger trailer.

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5 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

It, Fifty Shades?

 

It ?

 

The 123m september R-rated openner ? Is an example of not giving too much weigth to an online phenomenom ?

 

Or 50 Shades the :

https://deadline.com/2015/02/fifty-shades-of-grey-international-box-office-first-day-1201372179/

Fifty Shades touts the biggest opening abroad ever for an adult film, beating the previous record holder The Matrix Revolutions at $117M.

 

1. (New) Fifty Shades of Grey, $237.7m from 59 territories – 65.7% international; 34.3% US

 

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Hopefully Aladdin at least proves to many that TLK making record numbers just because the animated one is one of the biggest films of all time isn't any kind of given. Even with fantastic WOM, Aladdin is going to come way way short of BatB, in spite of the animated Aladdin dwarfing the animated BatB in box office success. So as I've been saying forever, this "if BatB did x, then this movie will do y because the animated movie was bigger" logic is not an accurate way to predict at all. I still say TLK looks completely bereft of any of the charm of the animated one,  but maybe the marketing has been just as poorly handed as Aladdin?

 

Though I don't think real looking CGI animals are ever going to be able to be as endearing or expertly personified as animated ones, which is something the Jungle Book reinforced to me. Baloo is one of the most endearing Disney characters in the animated one, but lost almost all of that in translation in the live action. Just like Scar just looks like a lion in the TLK trailers. No design personality. 

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3 minutes ago, Geo1500 said:

 

Let me know your estimation on that one. Give me figures

It’s too early for me.  It you said 1.3-1.5 and then gave a breakdown which added to 800-1B.

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2 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Hopefully Aladdin at least proves to many that TLK making record numbers just because the animated one is one of the biggest films of all time isn't any kind of given. Even with fantastic WOM, Aladdin is going to come way way short of BatB, in spite of the animated Aladdin dwarfing the animated BatB in box office success. So as I've been saying forever, this "if BatB did x, then this movie will do y because the animated movie was bigger" logic is not an accurate way to predict at all. I still say TLK looks completely bereft of any of the charm of the animated one,  but maybe the marketing has been just as poorly handed as Aladdin?

 

Though I don't think real looking CGI animals are ever going to be able to be as endearing or expertly personified as animated ones, which is something the Jungle Book reinforced to me. Baloo is one of the most endearing Disney characters in the animated one, but lost almost all of that in translation in the live action. Just like Scar just looks like a lion in the TLK trailers. No design personality. 

And the jungle book was also a huge hit even with nowhere near as much hype as TLK

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1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

Hopefully Aladdin at least proves to many that TLK making record numbers just because the animated one is one of the biggest films of all time isn't any kind of given. Even with fantastic WOM, Aladdin is going to come way way short of BatB, in spite of the animated Aladdin dwarfing the animated BatB in box office success. So as I've been saying forever, this "if BatB did x, then this movie will do y because the animated movie was bigger" logic is not an accurate way to predict at all. I still say TLK looks completely bereft of any of the charm of the animated one,  but maybe the marketing has been just as poorly handed as Aladdin?

 

Though I don't think real looking CGI animals are ever going to be able to be as endearing or expertly personified as animated ones, which is something the Jungle Book reinforced to me. Baloo is one of the most endearing Disney characters in the animated one, but lost almost all of that in translation in the live action. Just like Scar just looks like a lion in the TLK trailers. No design personality. 

To be fair, Aladdin's biggest hurdle to overcome was always gonna be no Robin Williams (judging by the numbers, I'd say it did). Beauty and the Beast '91 was a movie that actually grew in popularity over time.

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1 hour ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Disney not giving the sacrifice to boxoffice gods this year and see Endgame is about to miss Avatar. 2020 looks terrible, with 30-50% drop staring in face. God save Disney. @Porthos be strong.

I was thinking just that. It will be a down year for Marvel, plus no Star Wars or Avatar. The drop in BO can be really bad.

 

Of course there's always breakouts, but right now I'm not seeing anything reaching 500m DOM. Heck, we might even end up without a 400m film either (but I assume something will break out and reach that figure at least).

 

Heck, I might go and make my first club once the release schedule becomes clearer.

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4 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

It’s too early for me.  It you said 1.3-1.5 and then gave a breakdown which added to 800-1B.

His figures was 1.3-1.5b for Mulan. The bottom numbers were for TLK. 

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4 hours ago, Alli said:

Life of Pets and Toy story are the only target competition. and those are animation.

All those films are tentpoles that attract families to see like the MCU or Star Wars. They'll take away audiences from Alladin.

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3 minutes ago, filmlover said:

To be fair, Aladdin's biggest hurdle to overcome was always gonna be no Robin Williams (judging by the numbers, I'd say it did). Beauty and the Beast '91 was a movie that actually grew in popularity over time.

But the live action one was only so massive because it cornered the YA demo on a Twilight/Hunger Games level in addition to the family market. Why would TLK appeal so heavily to that demo? Aladdin had more of a shot of hitting that market. 

 

It's why I think Mermaid is the only one that stands a decent shot of matching or beating BatB's success. 

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I feel like some have seen a couple of people predict $2b or #1 DOM/WW pre-Endgame and are using that to assume everyone else’s expectations are inflated. Sure, there are very few people thinking that high (and most were pre-Endgame) but the point is that sub $1b is very unlikely. As unlikely as $2b would be. TFA had high Facebook views too and IW and EG had high twitter views. Facebook skews older so high views there is good imo. We shouldn’t discount them just because YouTube isn’t a ridiculous amount. No, I’m not saying this will pull a TFA

 

Plus genre and fan base matters when thinking about views. Families aren’t going to be sitting on YouTube watching and rewatching trailers for weeks. After the teaser, a lot of people will have decided if they’d see the movie or not, they don’t need to pour over the trailers like marvel or Pokémon fans looking for every hidden detail. Those on the fence will wait for reviews/WOM/etc. 

 

Of course my expectations are based on the movie being good. If it sucks or is meh, then yeah, sub $1b. But I haven’t personally seen anything that would make me think that at this time. Sticking to $620-$700m DOM and $1.3-1.5b WW. 

Edited by Deja23
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