Memorial Weekend Thread: 4-Day Actuals - Aladdin $116.81M | John Wick 3 $30.97M | Avengers Endgame $22.06M | Pokemon DP $17.25M

[RealLyre]

9 minutes ago, Nova said:

Okay? I didn't realize a good RT score meant a great box office run.

 

 Judging by how its doing in the UK and how it's tracking, I'm not expecting much from it. 

 

Edit: 91% with 11 reviews and a 6.0 rating? 

quite a low rating for a movie with 91%. def not staying in that range. also Shazam is a proof of how much a good RT score can help a movie at the box office

Edited May 24, 2019 by RealLyre
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[Barnack]

4 minutes ago, Sindreee said:

North America is also in Quarter 1 of Fiscal year 2020. 

A it's using the Disney fiscal year starting in octobre, the fact they say  or quarter 2... anyway maybe close enough for them to do an exclusive.

Edited May 24, 2019 by Barnack

[babz06]

These Aladdin numbers are good, it’ll be fine in the end.

[xiazhi]

30 minutes ago, Barnack said:

Disney+ initial launch is only a regional one I think no ?

https://whatsondisneyplus.com/when-will-disney-launch/

• Western Europe in Quarter 1/Quarter 2 of Fiscal year 2020
• Eastern Europe is later
• Asia-Pacific will be out throughout 2 years
• Latin America will be Q1 in Fiscal year 2021

How about Canada?

[Nova]

9 minutes ago, Sindreee said:

And 0 top critics.

I mean I’m not too concerned about the RT score for it because kids movies in general can rely less on them although having great reviews is better than not having them BUT still good reviews does not equal good box office.

 

But anyways I just don’t think SLOP2 is going to come anywhere near the first and roughly a month ago I thought it would open at around $90M or so but now I’m thinking $65M is the max for it. I guess not necessarily a “nothing burger” but not something that will impact Aladdin like I thought it would before the summer movie going season began 

Edited May 24, 2019 by Nova

[filmscholar]

From 4th of July to Memorial Day.   BIG WILLIE WEEKEND IS BACK!!!!!  Let's go.  

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

SLOP 2 won't quite be a nothingburger but the marketing is certainly a nothingburger compared to the first

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[JimiQ]

I feel like Disney wrote every movie in 2018 and 2019 (except MCU, Incr2, Frozen 2) off as an investment into Disney+. Every dollar earned is just bonus

[Barnack]

7 minutes ago, xiazhi said:

How about Canada?

Apparently:

 

Disney+ streaming service to launch in the U.S. in November, rest of North America in Q1 2020 [Update]

 

https://mobilesyrup.com/2019/04/11/disney-plus-streaming-service-global-launch/

[NCsoft]

5 minutes ago, Menor said:

SLOP 2 won't quite be a nothingburger but the marketing is certainly a nothingburger compared to the first

 

Illumination's power is waning, and it felt like a very sudden shift from its "rising star" status.

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 hour ago, Menor said:

Today will be another test of how good Pulse is with dailies. At 9AM Aladdin had 38612 tickets sold. Yesterday it added 11-12k or so from 9AM, which would put Aladdin at 50k by the end of the day conservatively (I would expect Friday night to see more late buyers than Thursday, but at least not a drop). This would put the floor for Aladdin at 22 million using Dumbo and Pikachu which were the best-performing of my comps yesterday, with a chance to go significantly higher.

44327 at 1 PM, it will hit that 50k by 5 PM if it keeps this up, could optimistically hit 58k+ by the end of day which would imply about a $26 million Friday  Of course Pulse is rough, so I won't raise my expectations that high unless confirmed by Charlie/Rth, but this seems like pretty stellar day-of business.

[Deja23]

31 minutes ago, Nova said:

Okay? I didn't realize a good RT score meant a great box office run.

 

 Judging by how its doing in the UK and how it's tracking, I'm not expecting much from it. 

 

Edit: 91% with 11 reviews and a 6.0 rating? 

Gotcha. I wasn’t implying it would do great and didn’t realize it’s out anywhere yet. Just surprised by your statement and went to check RT as I assumed that’s what you were basing it on. 

[Nova]

If my theater is anything to go by, Booksmart is not gonna do well. I thought it could get to mid teens with the 4-day but yea no. It'll be lucky if it even gets into the teens at all. Shame. 

[Eric Atreides]

1 hour ago, Nova said:

I will say that judging by SLOP2 being a nothing burger, Aladdin may end up having a pretty good run in terms of legs for MDW openers. Not much competition until Toy Story 4 comes out. 

I can see Aladdin reaching a 2.3x multiplier off the 4-Day tbh (that's near identical to what Alice Through the Looking Glass got with worse reception)

[Eric Atreides]

Also Long-Range Tracking:

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-tracking-lion-king/

 

Lion King: 180-230 range. 201/650

 

Ma: 24 (+4%)/59 (-2%)

Rocketman: 39/160 (-3%)

Shaft: 28 (-10%)/79(-21%

[AndyChrono]

24 minutes ago, Menor said:

44327 at 1 PM, it will hit that 50k by 5 PM if it keeps this up, could optimistically hit 58k+ by the end of day which would imply about a $26 million Friday  Of course Pulse is rough, so I won't raise my expectations that high unless confirmed by Charlie/Rth, but this seems like pretty stellar day-of business.

Wow that would be amazing if it holds.

 

Just for fun hype, if that holds out then I would posit that Previews were depressed because of the marketing campaign which caused a poor first impression. The actual audience responses seem to be very positive thus far. So as word of mouth spreads there should be some nice room to grow.

 

It's worth noting that BatB jumped 32.8% on Saturday from True Friday... If Aladdin does something similar, we could be looking at a ~34.5m Saturday, which shockingly would put a 100m 3-day into play...

 

Thurs: 7m

Fri: 26m

Sat: 34.5m

Sun: 32.5m (100m 3-day!)

Mon: 23m (123m 4-day)

[Menor the Destroyer]

9 minutes ago, AndyChrono said:

Wow that would be amazing if it holds.

 

Just for fun hype, if that holds out then I would posit that Previews were depressed because of the marketing campaign which caused a poor first impression. The actual audience responses seem to be very positive thus far. So as word of mouth spreads there should be some nice room to grow.

 

It's worth noting that BatB jumped 32.8% on Saturday from True Friday... If Aladdin does something similar, we could be looking at a ~34.5m Saturday, which shockingly would put a 100m 3-day into play...

 

Thurs: 7m

Fri: 26m

Sat: 34.5m

Sun: 32.5m (100m 3-day!)

Mon: 23m (123m 4-day)

I mean let's keep the expectations in check a little, the run rate could slow down, or the film could be more presale-heavy than yesterday, or any number of issues could crop up because I don't have a lot of experience extrapolating. Also, don't Memorial Day openers tend to have lower Saturday bumps? I'd think a 26 million friday would put it in the range of a 110-115 4-day weekend, 90ish 3-day (which would still be quite the overperformance). 

[AndyChrono]

10 minutes ago, Menor said:

I mean let's keep the expectations in check a little, the run rate could slow down, or the film could be more presale-heavy than yesterday, or any number of issues could crop up because I don't have a lot of experience extrapolating. Also, don't Memorial Day openers tend to have lower Saturday bumps? I'd think a 26 million friday would put it in the range of a 110-115 4-day weekend, 90ish 3-day (which would still be quite the overperformance). 

Well, the previous few Memorial Days have had stuff like X-Men, POTC, and Solo. I expect Aladdin to have some characteristics of a kids movie box office since the target audience isn't just the nostalgia crowd, but kids as well. The last time we had a kids movie open on Memorial Day Weekend was back in 2011 with Kung Fu Panda 2. That one jumped 41% on Saturday, but then again it was 8 years ago. A 30+% Sat bump is probably a dream scenario, but it would be an unbelievable sight.

[Menor the Destroyer]

18 minutes ago, AndyChrono said:

Well, the previous few Memorial Days have had stuff like X-Men, POTC, and Solo. I expect Aladdin to have some characteristics of a kids movie box office since the target audience isn't just the nostalgia crowd, but kids as well. The last time we had a kids movie open on Memorial Day Weekend was back in 2011 with Kung Fu Panda 2. That one jumped 41% on Saturday, but then again it was 8 years ago. A 30+% Sat bump is probably a dream scenario, but it would be an unbelievable sight.

Maybe. I'd still be more comfortable saying a 20% or so bump.

[Eric Atreides]

16 minutes ago, AndyChrono said:

Well, the previous few Memorial Days have had stuff like X-Men, POTC, and Solo. I expect Aladdin to have some characteristics of a kids movie box office since the target audience isn't just the nostalgia crowd, but kids as well. The last time we had a kids movie open on Memorial Day Weekend was back in 2011 with Kung Fu Panda 2. That one jumped 41% on Saturday, but then again it was 8 years ago. A 30+% Sat bump is probably a dream scenario, but it would be an unbelievable sight.

No, there have been several kids movies opening on this weekend in the past couple years. In terms of Saturday:

 

Alice 2 dropped 6.7% from Friday

Tomorrowland jumped 21.9%

Epic jumped 43.1%

 

That seems well-positioned for Aladdin, but the thing is that Alice is the only movie with standard previews like Aladdin. Tomorrowland had IMAX/PLF only previews, while Epic didn't even have midnights. I highly doubt Aladdin will buck the trend, unless WOM really kicks in.