Memorial Weekend Thread: 4-Day Actuals - Aladdin $116.81M | John Wick 3 $30.97M | Avengers Endgame $22.06M | Pokemon DP $17.25M

[jedijake]

19 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

220 domestic will be there in a couple weeks. 250+ up to 270/280

Agreed. Aladdin's quite the buzz now.It should reach $220-$225 million by its third weekend. 

[keysersoze123]

11 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

The opening is where I think TLK is being overestimated the most. I would be shocked if it goes above 150. If it makes huge 500+ numbers, it's going to be through legs not OW. 

you are repeating now. What is your  OW prediction since you just said 350/600 run for TLK? There is hardly a major movie releasing domestically post TLK unless you are predicting Hobbs and Shaw to hit Furious 7 levels or you are predicting TLK to have BvS legs?

 

I have seen Circle of Life in Epcot multiple time across years and I can reaction across audience to know this is trans generational. Plus the humongous success of Broadway show. You are going to be shocked for sure. BO Pro is predicting 201/650 and I cant wait for initial tracking.

[CJohn]

delete this shit wrong thread

Edited May 26, 2019 by CJohn

[Jake Gittes]

Saw Wick. Good stuff but the downtime alotted to mythology was a lot more entertaining in the second one, here the movie doesn't so much pause as stop when that stuff has to happen. Weird structure too, there-and-back-again rather than constant escalation. All the best action is in the first half, although it's a pleasure to see Dacascos and the Raid dudes. 

[Maxmoser3]

The tv spot for Godzilla during the 500 race was really good. 

[tonytr87]

23 hours ago, baumer said:

But what else are you going to release these? There's always going to be a big-budget extravaganza to compete against.

 

This. For those of us who have been following box office for years, it didn't use to be this way in terms of the schedule. There were tentpoles in the summer and around holiday season. In between there were rarely big-budget blockbusters. That was the time for movies like Booksmart or Long Shot to break out or at least do modest business. Now? January through December is riddled with a big release nearly every week. 

[ZattMurdock]

I wonder if @RtheEnd‘s $6.8m for Endgame is closer to the Sat number than the estimates. I don’t remember Rth getting a number off by 0.3 in a while.

[john2000]

3 minutes ago, ZattMurdock said:

I wonder if @RtheEnd‘s $6.8m for Endgame is closer to the Sat number than the estimates. I don’t remember Rth getting a number off by 0.3 in a while.

well he could just make a mistake but yeah its more off than usual

[Shawn Robbins]

30 minutes ago, tonytr87 said:

 

This. For those of us who have been following box office for years, it didn't use to be this way in terms of the schedule. There were tentpoles in the summer and around holiday season. In between there were rarely big-budget blockbusters. That was the time for movies like Booksmart or Long Shot to break out or at least do modest business. Now? January through December is riddled with a big release nearly every week. 

 

On 5/25/2019 at 4:45 PM, baumer said:

But what else are you going to release these? There's always going to be a big-budget extravaganza to compete against.

I definitely agree with what you both mean, the schedule is more competitive year-round than it ever has been. But... I really think opening a movie like Booksmart this weekend never made much sense in retrospect. Aladdin especially has a big female fan base (a major part of the Disney lifetime fans).

 

As for Long Shot, I think it was slightly less predictable for it to underperform despite buzz because no one in the world saw Endgame dwarfing the market in the way it did. Just bad luck all around for Lionsgate on that one... but still, kind of a risk taken on their part as well.

[wildphantom]

Looking like around $840 million finish for Endgame. Around $100 million short of Force Awakens, despite opening $100 million higher. A weird bit of symmetry there. 

[Porthos]

5 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

Looking like around $840 million finish for Endgame. Around $100 million short of Force Awakens, despite opening $100 million higher. A weird bit of symmetry there. 

[Eric Atreides]

Little late to the party, but I think another issue when it came to Booksmart was its rating. Kind of like what happened to Edge of 17 and to a lesser extent Blockers, this was a movie about high schoolers, but a majority of its target audience wasn't allowed to see it without adult supervision. At least Lady Bird marketed itself as being "prestigious" and "Oscar worthy" and Superbad came out at Apatow's peak in popularity. Obviously this movie wouldn't have been "better" quality-wise if it was PG-13, but financially speaking, it would at least

[YLF]

Why are so many celebs tweeting about booksmart? Has anyone seen it? Is it good?

[JonathanLB]

19 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

Looking like around $840 million finish for Endgame. Around $100 million short of Force Awakens, despite opening $100 million higher. A weird bit of symmetry there. 

Yup, Endgame said, "I am inevitable!" and Star Wars said, "And I am The Force Awakens." Dread it, run from it, destiny arrives all the same.

[baumer]

14 minutes ago, YLF said:

Why are so many celebs tweeting about booksmart? Has anyone seen it? Is it good?

 

Ryan Reynolds worked with Wilde so I assume they are friends.

[That One Girl]

14 minutes ago, YLF said:

Why are so many celebs tweeting about booksmart? Has anyone seen it? Is it good?

 

It's phenomenal.  One of the best of the year.

[John Marston]

this Booksmart movie has no stars and isn't based on any well known material and is releasing alongside much bigger and more high profile movies. Why would it do well? Seems like something that should be straight to Netflix

[dxmatrixdt]

next weekend               weekend after

1 - Godzilla - 60           1 - Secret Pets - 70

2 - Aladdin - 35            2 - Dark Phoenix - 60

3 - Rocketman - 35       3- Godzilla - 20

4 - Ma - 15                   4 - Aladdin - 20

5 - John Wick - 10         5 - Rocketman - 20

6 - Avengers - 9            6 - Ma - 7

7 - Pokemon - 7            7 - John Wick - 5

8 - Brightburn - 3          8 - Avengers - 5

9 - Booksmart - 3          9 - Pokemon - 4

 

[That One Girl]

6 minutes ago, John Marston said:

this Booksmart movie has no stars and isn't based on any well known material and is releasing alongside much bigger and more high profile movies. Why would it do well?

 

Please tell me how big Jonah Hill/Michael Cera were in 2007 when Superbad did well despite competing with Bourne Ultimatum and Rush Hour 3

[Ryan Reynolds]

13 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

Please tell me how big Jonah Hill/Michael Cera were in 2007 when Superbad did well despite competing with Bourne Ultimatum and Rush Hour 3 

its more Adventureland than Superbad as far as distribution , which had stars