Memorial Weekend Thread: 4-Day Actuals - Aladdin $116.81M | John Wick 3 $30.97M | Avengers Endgame $22.06M | Pokemon DP $17.25M

[Darth Lehnsherr]

Well I didn't know much about Booksmart but seeing how much recommendations its getting I might check it out...........on July 11th since that's the Aussie release date.

[PDC1987]

4 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

The opening is where I think TLK is being overestimated the most. I would be shocked if it goes above 150. If it makes huge 500+ numbers, it's going to be through legs not OW. 

There is no way in hell TLK is opening lower than BATB. It is an INFINITELY bigger property.

[Pure Spirit]

4 hours ago, cdsacken said:

Dear God the grande nitro brew. It's good but way too much caffeine

We don’t agree on much but I’m with you on this. I love the taste/texture but I don’t like the heart palpitations.

[eddyxx]

Where are the numbers for Alladian's 3 day?

[cannastop]

9 hours ago, John Marston said:

Would be funny if this ends up being a Zootopia over there 

It won't.

[Krissykins]

7 hours ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

What. Maleficent did 760. That's sound too big. Ofcourse ER was soft back then, but there isn't any country where it did great, except Mexico perhaps.

And $404mn OS-Japan-China from $102mn OW approx. Roughly same as Aladdin.

 

Alright that's the target set for Aladdin.

400 + 50 China + 65 Japan + 280 Dom ~ 800

 

Still don’t see Domestic going that high, not compared with other Memorial Day openings. 

 

Maleficent did great in plenty of markets, especially compared with Aladdin. 

[Krissykins]

27 minutes ago, PDC1987 said:

There is no way in hell TLK is opening lower than BATB. It is an INFINITELY bigger property.

Lion King will open to $200m+ IMO

[cdsacken]

8 minutes ago, Pure Spirit said:

We don’t agree on much but I’m with you on this. I love the taste/texture but I don’t like the heart palpitations.

Lol we would agree on more if we never discussed Avatar a movie but it was a decade ago. Conversely I don't love Titantic but I recognize goat status.

 

It really reminds me of a porter with low alcohol. Hated the reaction after. I literally took a Benadryl after haha.

[Pure Spirit]

Siding with @baumer on this. Using the logic that BatB remake made $X amount and BatB original made $Y amount, therefore TLK remake will make $Z is faulty logic. Aladdin, despite being a relative success, is exhibit A for this. I don't personally know a lot of people clamoring to see TLK in CGI, and I feel if this breaks out huge (beyond BatB) it's going to be on its own merits for being an utter visual spectacle that gets everyone talking (which, to be fair, it might!). I'm the poster-child for TLK, I saw the original when I was in middle school... THREE times. As a parent, I don't have a huge urge to see TLK, except maybe once out of curiosity. Trailer views can also be deceptive, the TLK remake has a huge "curiosity" factor that may not translate into box office sales. I got a push notification from Apple News to watch the trailer, so, that could explain some of the views.  Bottom line is, my gut instinct is somewhere around BatB would be a really good result for the TLK CGI remake. I think it's going to disappoint some of the more enthusiastic proponents.

[Geo1500]

6 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Still don’t see Domestic going that high, not compared with other Memorial Day openings. 

 

Maleficent did great in plenty of markets, especially compared with Aladdin. 

 

I think it can hit one billie with some good legs. Due to nostalgia surrounding Aladdin it will have legs thats for sure. Little over or under 1B WW

Edited May 27, 2019 by Geo1500

[charlie Jatinder]

4 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Still don’t see Domestic going that high, not compared with other Memorial Day openings. 

 

Maleficent did great in plenty of markets, especially compared with Aladdin. 

Actually, Aladdin is ahead of Maleficent in most market, save for that Maleficent had softer exchange rates than Aladdin.

[PDC1987]

31 minutes ago, Pure Spirit said:

Siding with @baumer on this. Using the logic that BatB remake made $X amount and BatB original made $Y amount, therefore TLK remake will make $Z is faulty logic. Aladdin, despite being a relative success, is exhibit A for this. I don't personally know a lot of people clamoring to see TLK in CGI, and I feel if this breaks out huge (beyond BatB) it's going to be on its own merits for being an utter visual spectacle that gets everyone talking (which, to be fair, it might!). I'm the poster-child for TLK, I saw the original when I was in middle school... THREE times. As a parent, I don't have a huge urge to see TLK, except maybe once out of curiosity. Trailer views can also be deceptive, the TLK remake has a huge "curiosity" factor that may not translate into box office sales. I got a push notification from Apple News to watch the trailer, so, that could explain some of the views.  Bottom line is, my gut instinct is somewhere around BatB would be a really good result for the TLK CGI remake. I think it's going to disappoint some of the more enthusiastic proponents.

My entire family wants to go see it.

[SoSaysI]

44 minutes ago, Pure Spirit said:

Siding with @baumer on this. Using the logic that BatB remake made $X amount and BatB original made $Y amount, therefore TLK remake will make $Z is faulty logic. Aladdin, despite being a relative success, is exhibit A for this. I don't personally know a lot of people clamoring to see TLK in CGI, and I feel if this breaks out huge (beyond BatB) it's going to be on its own merits for being an utter visual spectacle that gets everyone talking (which, to be fair, it might!). I'm the poster-child for TLK, I saw the original when I was in middle school... THREE times. As a parent, I don't have a huge urge to see TLK, except maybe once out of curiosity. Trailer views can also be deceptive, the TLK remake has a huge "curiosity" factor that may not translate into box office sales. I got a push notification from Apple News to watch the trailer, so, that could explain some of the views.  Bottom line is, my gut instinct is somewhere around BatB would be a really good result for the TLK CGI remake. I think it's going to disappoint some of the more enthusiastic proponents.

Trailer views can definitely be deceptive but not at the level they are at.  TLK is going to be massive.

[jj99]

43 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Actually, Aladdin is ahead of Maleficent in most market, save for that Maleficent had softer exchange rates than Aladdin.

The Good Sis Mal had fantastic legs and did amazing, especially in Latin America

[La Binoche]

Mal 2 looks unwatchable. What's Angelina smoking? 

[harsh3090416]

2 hours ago, Clubs Are Trash said:

next weekend               weekend after

1 - Godzilla - 60           1 - Secret Pets - 70

2 - Aladdin - 35            2 - Dark Phoenix - 60

3 - Rocketman - 35       3- Godzilla - 20

4 - Ma - 15                   4 - Aladdin - 20

5 - John Wick - 10         5 - Rocketman - 20

6 - Avengers - 9            6 - Ma - 7

7 - Pokemon - 7            7 - John Wick - 5

8 - Brightburn - 3          8 - Avengers - 5

9 - Booksmart - 3          9 - Pokemon - 4

 

 

2 hours ago, Clubs Are Trash said:

next weekend               weekend after

1 - Godzilla - 60           1 - Secret Pets - 70

2 - Aladdin - 35            2 - Dark Phoenix - 60

3 - Rocketman - 35       3- Godzilla - 20

4 - Ma - 15                   4 - Aladdin - 20

5 - John Wick - 10         5 - Rocketman - 20

6 - Avengers - 9            6 - Ma - 7

7 - Pokemon - 7            7 - John Wick - 5

8 - Brightburn - 3          8 - Avengers - 5

9 - Booksmart - 3          9 - Pokemon - 4

 

Only 60 for Godzilla (-_-)  Aladdin's probably going to do more than 35 too. 

[RamblinRed]

I'll be surprised if TLK does less than 550M DOM.

That is my son's #2 movie to see this summer (#1 was AE). 

Every metric so far suggests a huge opening.

Favreau has alot of good will built up from TJB (which had talking and singing animals which the GA seemed to approve of).

TJB is a much larger property for Disney than BatB. it also has a later summer slot with not much competition after it.

 

[cdsacken]

35 ? Say what?

 

Pirates 5 was hated and a had a 65% drop. From the 4 day max drop I would guess is 60%

 

Gimme 45 next weekend

Edited May 27, 2019 by cdsacken

[charlie Jatinder]

Solo had 57% drop from true FSS. We can expect 50-55% from Aladdin I guess. $37-41mn Approx. Let's pinpoint to $38-40mn.

Edited May 27, 2019 by Charlie Jatinder

[MikeQ]

What may hinder Endgame’s ability to pass Avatar worldwide are the next couple weekends at the box office (Endgame’s 6th and 7th weekends).

 

Domestically, Infinity War dropped under 40% on its 6th weekend against competition that amounted to less than $20M in gross, whereas Endgame looks to face cumulatively $100M+ in gross from openers Godzilla, Rocketman, and Ma (another three openers that will soak up theatres).

 

And on its 7th weekend Infinity War dropped just 31.1%. Endgame on its 7th weekend will face Dark Phoenix, Secret Life of Pets 2, and Late Night which will also amount to well over $100M in cumulative weekend gross, compared to the $58.4M from the three wide openers Infinity War faced on its equivalent weekend (Ocean’s 8, Hereditary, and Hotel Artemis - films which presented arguably less direct competition in terms of genre/audience overlap).

 

Nevertheless, even if it doesn’t pass Avatar worldwide, Endgame’s box office performance is incredible, especially with that bonanza opening weekend. I’ve already pointed out in a previous post that Avatar (and Titanic) are the anomalies of their time - given the extent to which they decimated the previous record and the handful of films that would have set the worldwide box office record if not for those two films.

 

Endgame has solidified the Avengers franchise as a bonafide mega-blockbuster franchise in the history books, on par with the Star Wars and Jurassic Park franchises in terms of breaking the opening weekend record multiple times and cumulatively grossing incredible box office dollars. As box office nerds, we ought to bask in these incredible box office feats.

 

Peace,

Mike