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Memorial Weekend Thread: 4-Day Actuals - Aladdin $116.81M | John Wick 3 $30.97M | Avengers Endgame $22.06M | Pokemon DP $17.25M

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6 hours ago, DAJK said:

I'd love to see Aladdin get to 270 or so domestic. Any higher I think would be wishful thinking, but 250 is certainly possible given WOM seems to be pretty strong.

I could feasibly see the next few weeks playing out like

 

Aladdin - 90/260

Godzilla - 70/200

Rocketman - 30/110

Pets 2 - 55/170

Dark Phoenix - 60/140

Men In Black - 30/85

Toy Story - 120/400

Annabelle - 35/100

Yesterday - 15/70

Looks like you gave Shaft the shaft :P 

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1 hour ago, AlexMA said:

Trying to think of the last time we've seen that for a movie opening around $90 million (Friday-Sunday) and I seriously can't find anything. I know Disney were extremely safe with their Sunday estimates, much more so than usual, but that's still pretty damn crazy.

 

 

I looked back and that has never happened over this weekend, regardless of the opening weekend of that movie, be it over or under $100 million. The most I've seen a movie underpredicted was +$3.7 million for Shrek 2 back in 2004.

Disney estimated the original Avengers opening at 200.3 million, actuals were 207.4, + 7.1 million. 

Disney has a history of playing it safe with estimates.

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3 minutes ago, VanillaSkies said:

Disney estimated the original Avengers opening at 200.3 million, actuals were 207.4, + 7.1 million. 

Disney has a history of playing it safe with estimates.

Yes but that was a normal weekend and we're talking about $200+ million there. missing $5 million from a $90 million start is much worse than $7.1 million for a $207 million one.

 

I completely understand why they did it for Avengers, I don't quite get why they did it to Aladdin too when they know full well that Saturday to Sunday doesn't go like that over this extended weekend.

 

I guess maybe it was too close to $90 to call one way or the other and instead of 88 million or so they went with 86... I guess? They could have had it at least at 87 and that would still be an extremely safe Sunday, likely to increase by 1 or 2 million just based on how Friday to Saturday played out. I don't know, it feels like some intern just threw those numbers in there because the actual person who does these estimates was off on holiday. That's at this point really the only thing that makes sense, as to why they'd go that low.

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1 minute ago, AlexMA said:

Yes but that was a normal weekend and we're talking about $200+ million there. missing $5 million from a $90 million start is much worse than $7.1 million for a $207 million one.

 

I completely understand why they did it for Avengers, I don't quite get why they did it to Aladdin too when they know full well that Saturday to Sunday doesn't go like that over this extended weekend.

 

I guess maybe it was too close to $90 to call one way or the other and instead of 88 million or so they went with 86... I guess? They could have had it at least at 87 and that would still be an extremely safe Sunday, likely to increase by 1 or 2 million just based on how Friday to Saturday played out. I don't know, it feels like some intern just threw those numbers in there because the actual person who does these estimates was off on holiday. That's at this point really the only thing that makes sense, as to why they'd go that low.

 

Again, Disney *always* plays it safe. It's not an intern doing the estimates. 

And why not? There is nothing but upside for them if it outperforms estimates. And if a film happens to underperform on Sunday and fall in line with their safe estimates, then it all works out. 

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2 hours ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Aladdin

 

31.3

29.9

30

 

91.2

This makes sense to me looking at past Memorial Day weekends.

No way was 25.5 going to be the number on Sunday. Looking at the past few years most movies go up slightly on Sunday and even the ones that go down - like Solo - are really small drops (less than 5%).

 

Monday drops are usually around 20%, so a 24 Monday sounds about right as well. Because of the Holiday Monday Tuesday will see big drops for all the movies - probably about 60%.

 

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6 minutes ago, VanillaSkies said:

 

Again, Disney *always* plays it safe. It's not an intern doing the estimates. 

And why not? There is nothing but upside for them if it outperforms estimates. And if a film happens to underperform on Sunday and fall in line with their safe estimates, then it all works out. 

That's the number everyone writes about, very few outlets ever go back and update the figures. And the issue is not being safe, it's how much they were this time. That $25.5 million Sunday was ridiculous, everyone here knew that, all the other studios did too and the same went for industry analysts, especially when you look back at their estimates for past movies that came out over this holiday. They were only off by 1 million with Solo and nowhere near as conservative considering WOM wasn't great on that film OW. That's my issue, why would they go so low when 27 would have been just as safe and would have looked better in the mainstream press.

 

Unless of course that was the script all along, "look how much more the film made than we estimated, despite our estimates being a joke", in which case I guess I could see it.

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20 minutes ago, RamblinRed said:

This makes sense to me looking at past Memorial Day weekends.

No way was 25.5 going to be the number on Sunday. Looking at the past few years most movies go up slightly on Sunday and even the ones that go down - like Solo - are really small drops (less than 5%).

 

Monday drops are usually around 20%, so a 24 Monday sounds about right as well. Because of the Holiday Monday Tuesday will see big drops for all the movies - probably about 60%.

 

yeah, 25.5M is ridiculous lowballing. I think it's hitting 90M+ for 3 days.

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With 91/115 and great WOM so far, Aladdin should have a solid run. It could do $48-50 million and possibly hold better over its 3rd weekend, but SLOP2 doing $55 million+ OW might just be too much for it to not have a 50-55% drop. 

 

$47 million ($186 million)

$22 million ($227 million)

$15.5 million ($255 million) - Father's Day

$10 million ($274 million) - TS4 doubles

$7.5 million ($289 million) - no kid-friendly new releases

$5 million ($300 million) - July 4th/Far From Home as the only major new release 

$310-313 million DOM 

 

 

 

 

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Wow Aladdin has become quite the little "must see" film for Disney fans at least. Those on the fence who are also fans of the classic will come out to see it.

 

$250 million seems to be a lock. $280 million is possible. Not sold on $300 million. SLOP2 and TS4 will dampen that. In 2014, Maleficent had NO competition.

 

 

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1 minute ago, jedijake said:

Wow Aladdin has become quite the little "must see" film for Disney fans at least. Those on the fence who are also fans of the classic will come out to see it.

 

$250 million seems to be a lock. $280 million is possible.

Let’s see how it’s second week goes before locking things in. But yeah, it should be able to get to $250m. 

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2 hours ago, AlexMA said:

Trying to think of the last time we've seen that for a movie opening around $90 million (Friday-Sunday) and I seriously can't find anything. I know Disney were extremely safe with their Sunday estimates, much more so than usual, but that's still pretty damn crazy.

 

 

I looked back and that has never happened over this weekend, regardless of the opening weekend of that movie, be it over or under $100 million. The most I've seen a movie underpredicted was +$3.7 million for Shrek 2 back in 2004.

Don't think it happened with any movie opening below 100m for quite a while.

Also percentage wise it's more off than BP and TFA.

 

 

Happens for the really big movies opening above 200m, actually out of those 7 TLJ is the only movie that was overpredicted or underpredicted by less than 4m.

 

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1 hour ago, jedijake said:

Wow Aladdin has become quite the little "must see" film for Disney fans at least. Those on the fence who are also fans of the classic will come out to see it.

 

$250 million seems to be a lock. $280 million is possible. Not sold on $300 million. SLOP2 and TS4 will dampen that. In 2014, Maleficent had NO competition.

 

 

Be careful with the word "lock".

Some people seem to be very triggered by that word lately! :P

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Just now, VanillaSkies said:

Be careful with the word "lock".

Some people seem to be very triggered by that word lately! :P

probably because the word is used incorrectly all the time on this board.

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