Memorial Weekend Thread: 4-Day Actuals - Aladdin $116.81M | John Wick 3 $30.97M | Avengers Endgame $22.06M | Pokemon DP $17.25M

[cdsacken]

Fair enough.

 

So Tuesday then. Bigger drop or spillover?

 

[VanillaSkies]

6 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Fair enough.

 

So Tuesday then. Bigger drop or spillover?

 

 

Could 200 million be on the table by next Sunday?

It would really have to hold exceptionally on the weekdays and next weekend. I don't see it happening currently, but it will get fairly close!

4 day weekend - 115 million

Tuesday - 13 million ( 128 total )

Wednesday - 9 million ( 137 total )

Thursday - 8 million ( 145 total )

Friday - 12 million ( 157 total )

Saturday - 20 million ( 177 total )

Sunday - 15 million ( 192 total )

With the WOM it's currently getting, anything is possible. Just look how estimates went up and up and up all weekend.....

[AndyChrono]

I dunno about critic bias and all that, but IMO there was definitely a fundamental failure on the part of the critics where they completely missed how audiences might like Aladdin.

 

Yes, critics are supposed to give their honest opinion. However, a critic that ONLY gives their opinion is the lowest tier of critic possible. After all, if you just wanted an opinion on a movie then you can pick any random person who's seen the film and their opinion would be just as valid. The only difference between the two would just be that the critic is backed by a publication, Youtube, etc. But ultimately this kind of critic is next to useless - it doesn't really give you any idea of whether you will like the movie. It's just like if a stranger told you X, Y and Z sucked about a particular movie. Okay, so we know it sucked for you, but will it suck for me?

 

A better critic will try and put themselves into the shoes of the movie-goer and their expectations. They can give their opinion, but also acknowledge that their public platform gives a chance to let ticket buyers make an informed decision on what they will be paying for. For instance, they can write something along the likes of "The songs were cheesy and sappy beyond belief (opinion part) but your kids will love them and you might even find yourself humming along (inform audience part)!"

 

The top-tier Roger Ebert level critics are the ones that can pick out the diamonds in the rough (pun intended). They can look at a movie that isn't great in any particular area but see that the combined whole is greater than the sum of its parts. Imagine for a moment, you had a movie where the critic thought the script was poor, acting was poor, direction was poor, VFX was poor, etc. The vast majority of them would simply slap a quick negative review on that and move on. But the best ones will take a step back and look at the combined whole and see that: "There is hardly a thing I can say in its favor, except that I was cheered by nearly every minute of it. I cannot argue for the script, the direction, the acting or even the mummy, but I can say that I was not bored and sometimes I was unreasonably pleased."

 

So all-in-all, it seems like the critics this time around were looking to hard for individual aspects to pick at: genie effects, should this even have been made, etc. instead of looking at whether audiences would like the combined whole - which it seems they do. Anyway, JMO.

[ThomasNicole]

$ 25M Monday?

 

Jesus, this is higher than true Friday. I mean, i never seem that before, WOM is really good.

 

So $ 115M 4-Day... even with POTC5 multiplier it will finish with $ 255M, so i guess now it’s safe to say $ 280-285M is happening, with a decent shot at $ 300M considering the WOM.

 

Disney is really on fire this year, with this they already have 3 hits and still have TS4, TLK, Frozen and SW, all of them guaranteed successes.

[charlie Jatinder]

2 minutes ago, VanillaSkies said:

 

Could 200 million be on the table by next Sunday?

It would really have to hold exceptionally on the weekdays and next weekend. I don't see it happening currently, but it will get fairly close!

4 day weekend - 115 million

Tuesday - 13 million ( 128 total )

Wednesday - 9 million ( 137 total )

Thursday - 8 million ( 145 total )

Friday - 12 million ( 157 total )

Saturday - 20 million ( 177 total )

Sunday - 15 million ( 192 total )

With the WOM it's currently getting, anything is possible. Just look how estimates went up and up and up all weekend.....

That Tuesday drop is very, well, very optimistic.

 

I will go with, being optimistic.

116

10 / 126

6.5 / 132.5

6 / 138.5

 

11.5 / 150

18 / 168

14 / 182

[filmlover]

Just now, ThomasNicole said:

$ 25M Monday?

 

Jesus, this is higher than true Friday. I mean, i never seem that before, WOM is really good.

 

So $ 115M 4-Day... even with POTC5 multiplier it will finish with $ 255M, so i guess now it’s safe to say $ 280-285M is happening, with a decent shot at $ 300M considering the WOM.

 

Disney is really on fire this year, with this they already have 3 hits and still have TS4, TLK, Frozen and SW, all of them guaranteed successes.

Not to mention kinda sorta Spider-Man lol (since Marvel co-produced it).

[XXR vs XXR]

9 minutes ago, VanillaSkies said:

 

Could 200 million be on the table by next Sunday?

It would really have to hold exceptionally on the weekdays and next weekend. I don't see it happening currently, but it will get fairly close!

4 day weekend - 115 million

Tuesday - 13 million ( 128 total )

Wednesday - 9 million ( 137 total )

Thursday - 8 million ( 145 total )

Friday - 12 million ( 157 total )

Saturday - 20 million ( 177 total )

Sunday - 15 million ( 192 total )

With the WOM it's currently getting, anything is possible. Just look how estimates went up and up and up all weekend.....

 

It wouldn’t surprise me at all if it pulled $50m next weekend. 

[XXR vs XXR]

3 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

That Tuesday drop is very, well, very optimistic.

 

I will go with, being optimistic.

116

10 / 126

6.5 / 132.5

6 / 138.5

 

11.5 / 150

18 / 168

14 / 182

 

At $25m today, that would be the same % drop as Solo last year. With the WOM Aladdin is getting, I don’t see that happening. I’m betting on closer to $12m than $10m.

[charlie Jatinder]

2 hours ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Aladdin 25.5-25.75

JW 3 6.35

EG 5.1

DP 3.75

 

[UserHN]

5 hours ago, ban1o said:

I actually agree there doesn't seem to be much of a difference. Like how can you prove you've seen it? Anybody could easily do that if they want to downvote a movie. But tbf these type of movies aren't the ones that usually get reviews bombed. 

Easy. RT requires you to buy your ticket at Fandango. If you do that, then they can easily tell that you have indeed seen the movie.

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 minute ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

 

Amazing

[cannastop]

52 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Critics read Twitter and stupid memes and made a decision before they ever saw the film.

right. duh

[charlie Jatinder]

3 minutes ago, Menor said:

Amazing

that also means your system works. Cool.

[Birdo Mandingo]

4 hours ago, Jake Gittes said:

> complains that critics aren't validating the audience's tastes

> states that critics have a responsibility to be honest and independent

you are a terrible critic if the audience routinely disagrees with you.

 

This is why I like RT in generally. I personally don't give a sh!t about what any individual critic has to say but I do look at the aggregate. It rarely changes my intent on watching a movie, but rather perspective. For instance I was going to see Endgame no matter what. However if the reviews initially were 60s to 70s I would have tempered my expectations. Because of this if the movie was just okay I would have been enjoyed it more because I would have the expectation going in that it was not perfect and hand flaws and I could enjoy it for what it is. In this case it was at 96% when I watched it, so I allowed my hype to stay high going in. And was rewarded.

 

The only critic I ever care for his personal opinion was Roger Ebert. 

 

As far as Aladdin, I have not seen it, but kinda want to. I watched the baby so my wife could take our 6 and 8 year old to go see it. My wife really loved it (and she is super hard on the Disney live action remakes, her favorite movie alltime is BatB and she did not care for the live action remake) so I assume it is quite enjoyable. 

[cannastop]

52 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Nah but better than twilight. As a lover of Twilight (team Edward ftw) even that seems like an easy thing to say. I'd guess without critics going super bitchy whiny, similar scores to Beauty and the Beast. Low 70s. Barely above Pikachu.

That's like, your opinion man.

[Eric Atreides]

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

that also means your system works. Cool.

Nah Pulse suggests 28, so still over. I think there was some effect of the Canada drop like you said before, it was more accurate the last couple days

[cannastop]

4 minutes ago, Birdo Mandingo said:

you are a terrible critic if the audience routinely disagrees with you.

Holy shit, the Transformers movies are aesthetic masterpieces!

[Birdo Mandingo]

Just now, cannastop said:

Holy shit, the Transformers movies are aesthetic masterpieces!

wait...

 

So critics what is the job of critics?

 

To inform the audience of whether or not they might enjoy a movie. Or to nominate it for awards?

 

I always believed the point of having critics was to inform audiences. 

 

The Academy has their own process for determining quality. Critics exist to communicate to the masses whether or not they will like a movie. They generally do a decent job (in aggregate) but on the individual level I have no faith in them. Just click on reviewers on RT and see their history.... 

[filmlover]

6 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

 

It's more of a win for the Disney brand than for diversity but a still cool achievement nonetheless. Blanking if that's ever happened before. I had to laugh that they got Billy Magnussen to play the lone white person in the whole movie (of course I also had to laugh whenever he showed up just because - hopefully the character he's playing in the next Bond movie is also a total goofball).