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Well you called down the thunder, now you got it! The Lion King under 1.1 billion World Wide club (The thunder strikes back...dead club after three days)

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This is going to be another one of those films like Mary Poppins, like Pikachu, that is grossly over predicted at this site.  And it's funny because I'm predicting it to do right around a billion which is huge money, but the way some of you have reacted to my prediction, you'd think I said it was going to make Pikachu money.

 

There's  litany of reasons I think it will go under 1.1 billion.  I was originally thinking under a billion but did some research and recalculating and came up with 1.1.  Not as sexy as under a billion but I feel good about this number.  

 

I don't see China and Japan going batshit crazy for this one.  Beauty and the Beast did big business in Japan.  More than 100 million there.  TJB did 23 million in Japan.  That's more likely a number for TLK there than doing 100 million.  And I think China might end up with a similar number, maybe a little less.  So that will certainly prevent it from doing mammoth numbers internationally.

 

I also don't see this being nearly as anticipated as BATB domestically.  There was a veritable buzz for that film and a lot of it imo had to do with not just how well it was loved but because it had a great live cast.  Emma Watson really sold that film and I think that is missing for TLK.  They have some famous names for the voices but no real face to go with it.

 

And nostalgia is in, yes, but in order for this to make more than a billion, I think you need much more interest in it.  Also, TLK just went on HV not too long ago.  It's been at the theatre and on broadway so is there really a massive audience just clamouring to see this again at the theatre?  Everyone owns it on DVD or BR and it's not like there's that much of a difference in films.  This one has live action reimagining of the classic film and I'm sure that will get a lot of people to want to check it out....but a lot will equate to 400 million domestically, maybe a bit more.  But not enough to put it into a different stratosphere.

 

I don't see parents, who loved this as a kid, suddenly want to go see it again, when they can watch it any time they choose to at home.

 

The other thing is, why mess with the original?  People love the original for a reason, because it is a classic in every sense.  It would be like assuming a JAWS remake would do huge business because everyone and their mother loves the original.  But the thought process with that is that you don't fuck with the original.  This just seems like a cash grab and I think a lot of people see through that.  Again, it will do well, really well.  But not BATB well.

 

The final reason is my gut.  My gut tells me this is not going to perform like a lot of you think it will....and my gut has a good batting average.

 

So for me:

 

OW:  140

Domestic:  465

International:  600

Total:  1.065 billion

 

So, let's have at it.  Fire away and tell me how dumb I'm being.  :)

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In, I don't necessarily think it'll happen but I sure as hell want it to lol

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You have made some reasonable points and $1.1B isn't chump change either. Only 21 movies have made it to 1.1B WW number so it's definitely a challenging feat. 

 

However, TLK has a lot things going for it. First, original is a timeless classic which has made billions outside of theaters, just shows how strong a brand is TLK. Second, when TLK 3D was re-released few years back it not only made 30M on OW but had a over 3 multi to finish over 94M. Easily the best of the 3D re-releases showing once again the power of TLK brand. Next point, while trailer views aren't end all be all, the views do show the buzz and hype are there. It's views only trail EG and neck and neck with IW we already know the buzz EG had. Another advantage TLK have OS is, unlike most movies it's the ultimate 4 quadrant movie. Meaning it'll play well all of Europe, Australia & Oceania, Asia and Latin America.  

 

How could we forget the biggest reason of them all, nostalgia. Hearing circle of life , gave me the same excitement and buzz as the IW trailer 1 with Silvestri's score. People around me are just as excited as I am about it.

 

205/775/1300/2075 WW

 

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2 minutes ago, druv10 said:

You have made some reasonable points and $1.1B isn't chump change either. Only 21 movies have made it to 1.1B WW number so it's definitely a challenging feat. 

 

However, TLK has a lot things going for it. First, original is a timeless classic which has made billions outside of theaters, just shows how strong a brand is TLK. Second, when TLK 3D was re-released few years back it not only made 30M on OW but had a over 3 multi to finish over 94M. Easily the best of the 3D re-releases showing once again the power of TLK brand. Next point, while trailer views aren't end all be all, the views do show the buzz and hype are there. It's views only trail EG and neck and neck with IW we already know the buzz EG had. Another advantage TLK have OS is, unlike most movies it's the ultimate 4 quadrant movie. Meaning it'll play well all of Europe, Australia & Oceania, Asia and Latin America.  

 

How could we forget the biggest reason of them all, nostalgia. Hearing circle of life , gave me the same excitement and buzz as the IW trailer 1 with Silvestri's score. People around me are just as excited as I am about it.

 

205/775/1300/2075 WW

 

I wont go that high but I cant see it finish below 1.5B. For now I would say 180-200/600 (similar to BO Pro prediction) / 900 OS - 1.5B WW. I think this will play well even in china. if it breaks over there 2B WW could happen.

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Posted (edited)

The most OUT I have ever been in any club.

 

USA: 650+

China: 300+

Rest: 800+ (Asia gonna be 2-2.5x BaTB - India will be 5x + BaTB. Even if Europe is flat)

Edited by Charlie Jatinder
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1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

I wont go that high but I cant see it finish below 1.5B. For now I would say 180-200/600 (similar to BO Pro prediction) / 900 OS - 1.5B WW. I think this will play well even in china. if it breaks over there 2B WW could happen.

I went with the best case scenario where it breaks out everywhere relatively speaking.

 

SK, Japan and China are going to be massive for it. Mexico loves animation and add in nostalgia of TLK, you could be looking at 45-50M there. Not quite EG/Coco/IW territory but in the next tier. Same will happen in Brazil and rest of Latin America.  

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16 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

In, I don't necessarily think it'll happen but I sure as hell want it to lol

I'm unironically in.

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Posted (edited)

Out. Honestly, $1.1b wouldn’t be bad for TLK. That would be a solid result. I do feel like you going up from under $400m/$1b to $465m/$1.1b points to it being bigger. It’ll do better than TJB. Personally see $650m/$1.350b if it has the reviews/WOM. According to Gavin, it might do well in China. Maybe not $100m+, but certainly over $40m. India also looks promising. And it has recognizable names. Donald Glover, Beyoncé, James Earl Jones. Iconic music.

Edited by Deja23
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Anyway I am way out. Skeptics are underestimating how big this brand is. its DVD/VHS was in vault majority of time, still its biggest HV seller of all time. That includes Titanic. Circle of life played so long in Epcot. The lion king broadway show itself grossed like 1.6B.

 

https://www.broadwayworld.com/grossescumulative.cfm?sortby=totaltotalGross&orderby=desc

 

Anyway we are not going change the mind of skeptics. but when the time comes be prepared to eat-crow.jpg

 

 

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14 minutes ago, druv10 said:

205/775/1300/2075 WW

WTF is up with that multiplier? And the international? phew.

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2 minutes ago, cannastop said:

WTF is up with that multiplier? And the international? phew.

its has a open runway rest of the summer. But that is highly optimistic as it will have big previews as well. I am expecting it to hit 30m+ previews. for 775 it needs 230m+ OW.

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You had to make the club WW, huh?:)  I have no clue how this is gonna do WW, although the Fast franchise will probably slice its legs out I think (since one thing I do know is that Fast is a WW phenom:)...

 

Ahhhhhh, if under $500M DOM indicates under $1.1B WW, then I'm IN...if I lose, it's probably b/c overseas gross is gonna be higher than $600M...but who knows, maybe their wallets have limits, too, with Spidey 2 weeks before and Hobbs and Shaw 2 weeks after...

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Out I think it might make $1.1B overseas alone. Also there’s really not much competition for it after it opens so it should leg it out easily also Labor Day Weekend will probably be a boost. 

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Huge out 

 

525 DOM (feeling awful about this gonna be 550 soon)

900+ OS

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1 minute ago, cdsacken said:

525 DOM (feeling awful about this gonna be 550 soon)

lol

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Have to be out on this one.

I've always thought Endgame, TLK and Frozen will be top 3 WW of the year. TROS fights with a list of films to be top 4. I need TLK to get to 1.5B or so, which I think it can do. I did also start to question its potential after seeing how the trailers on YouTube don't have legs, and how there's fairly muted excitement on the Internet, but I think nostalgia will likely do the job again, as it did many other times. 

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Posted (edited)

Needless for me to say based on my clubs and stance on the film, but just in case anyone needs the reassurance.....
OUT

$225m OW / $750m DOM / $1.45b OS 


Edit: Just to point out. Baumer's own number for TLK has already gone up over $100m worldwide in less than 12 hours, seeing as it was "between 900-950m" earlier today in the weekend thread. This will be the first of many revisions, once reality sets in. 

:hahaha:

Edited by VenomXXR
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