Weathering with You | Makoto Shinkai | GKIDS | January 17, 2020 | Nationwide 4DX this weekend Jan 31

[RealLyre]

8 minutes ago, cannastop said:

Disney isn't going to submit The Lion King 2019 as an animated movie.

 

And even if they did, it might not get a nomination.

why wouldn't it, I doubt it would win but the TLK 2019 is an achievement in 3D animation. and that's what the academy loves 

Edited July 21, 2019 by RealLyre
word

[cannastop]

6 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

why wouldn't it, I doubt it would win but the TLK 2019 is an achievement in 3D animation. and that's what the academy loves 

Jon Favreau and Disney executives aren't committing to calling The Lion King 2019 an animated movie. I don't think they submitted The Jungle Book 2016 as an animated movie either, when they could have.

Edited July 21, 2019 by cannastop

[cannastop]

corpse

https://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?p=2242420#p2242420

They won't drop more than 50%. 40% maybe, but not 50%.

Significant drop-offs aren't unexpected, though, as the only two predecessors to ¥25 billion+ films in history had similar declines:

Avatar (-40.5% off Titanic)
Howl's Moving Castle (-37.4% off Spirited Away)

A 40% decline for Weathering With You and Frozen II from their respective predecessor would put both of them around ¥15 billion. That's basically where they were expected to land, and Weathering With You's debut suggests it'll do something around there.

[cannastop]

Corpse:

https://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?p=2242461#p2242461

Weekend Actuals (07/20-21)
01 (---) ¥1,185,000,000 ($11.0 million), 0, ¥1,644,809,400 ($15.2 million), Weathering With You (Toho) NEW
02 (01) ¥855,292,000 ($7.9 million), -38%, ¥3,985,873,000 ($36.9 million), Toy Story 4 (Disney) WK2
03 (03) ¥287,657,000 ($2.7 million), -41%, ¥10,419,321,700 ($96.0 million), Aladdin (Disney) WK7
04 (02) ¥251,169,800 ($2.3 million), -55%, ¥1,298,496,300 ($12.0 million), Pokemon: Mewtwo Strikes Back - Evolution (Toho) WK2
05 (04) ¥104,177,400 ($965,000), -55%, ¥2,686,435,700 ($24.8 million), Spider-Man: Far From Home (Sony) WK4
06 (---) ¥x70,000,000 ($648,000), 0, ¥109,708,400 ($1.0 million), Child's Play (Toho-Towa) NEW
07 (---) ¥x65,000,000 ($602,000), 0, ¥112,000,000 ($1.0 million), Tokyo Ghoul S (Shochiku) NEW
08 (05) ¥x79,765,300 ($739,000), -47%, ¥909,304,600 ($8.4 million), The Diner (Warner Bros.) WK3
09 (06) ¥x47,586,800 ($441,000), -53%, ¥1,635,365,600 ($15.1 million), The Fable (Toho) WK5
10 (07) ¥x46,192,800 ($428,000), -26%, ¥1,040,823,600 ($9.7 million), Uta no Prince-sama The Movie: Maji LOVE Kingdom (Shochiku) WK7
11 (10) ¥x33,707,600 ($312,000), -09%, ¥225,129,900 ($2.1 million), Free! Road to the World - The Dream (Shochiku) WK3
12 (08) ¥x28,998,300 ($268,000), -50%, ¥414,589,400 ($3.8 million), Anpanman: Sparkle! Princess Van./Land of Ice Cream (Tokyo Theaters) WK4
13 (09) ¥x21,678,280 ($201,000), -47%, ¥404,321,110 ($3.7 million), The Journalist (Star Sands) WK4

>Weathering With You, director/writer Makoto Shinkai's (Your Name.) latest, debuted atop the box-office, delivering an exceptional opening. Shinkai's much anticipated follow-up to Your Name., the fourth biggest film ever in Japan, sold an excellent 830,000 admissions over the weekend frame across 448 screens. And since opening on Friday, it sold 1,159,020 admissions after three days in release.

This is about as strong as expected (on par/greater than a Miyazaki release), and it does come in 27% higher than the opening weekend of Your Name.. The film is also, quite astonishingly, the fourth ¥1 billion debut this year, after we just had one last weekend. A couple films opening above ¥1 billion in any year is impressive enough, so having four already is incredible.

It is, of course, very difficult to project a film's course at this stage. However, with the strong audience scores and another hit soundtrack, as well as the time of year, we can expect strong legs. Not Your Name. strong (new #1 all-time film if that happens), but multipliers well above 10 and approaching 15 are doable and even fairly common with all of these boxes checked off.  A total around the ¥15 billion ($140 million) milestone is certainly achievable, making it the likely favorite to win the year and allowing it to approach, perhaps even crack, the Top 10 All-Time Films in the market.

>Toy Story 4 enjoyed a strong second weekend, though its hold is on the higher side for a Pixar release. It's actually the biggest second weekend drop for any Pixar sequel. But, it is coming off of a bit of an inflated record opening weekend (holiday), and with its "good, not great" reception, I don't necessarily think this drop is bad. The next couple weeks will give us a clearer picture of where the film is heading, but I don't believe it's going to suddenly change course and begin matching/beating its predecessor's holds. So with that said, a total around ¥11/12 billion ($100/110 million) looks like the most likely scenario.

>Aladdin is beginning to slip a bit, though that's not too surprising now that the Summer box-office season is really kicking-in. This is a common trend for big holdovers from May/June that benefit greatly from the weaker box-office leading up to July. It did exceed the ¥10 billion milestone this past Wednesday, its 41st day in release, though and will continue to post decent numbers throughout the rest of the summer. It's path is becoming more set, and it's on track for a total around ¥12 billion ($110 million). It's going to be very close between it and Toy Story 4.

>Pokemon: Mewtwo Strikes Back - Evolution experienced the usual 50% drop the franchise always sees over their sophomore frames, though 55% is among the highest. The twenty-second film in the series will probably won't break franchise norms, so expect a finish a little above ¥3 billion (~$30 million).  

>Spider-Man: Far From Home just keeps on continuing its frontloaded ways, and it's too late correct this now. It's going to outgross its predecessor next weekend, but it's barely going to exceed the ¥3 billion (~$30 million), when it should have been aiming for at least ¥3.5 billion (~$35 million). I don't think it's due to poor WOM or anything though (audience scores are good), but rather the frontloaded nature of the Marvel/DC films has attached itself to the Spider-Man series now.

>The weekend number for both Child's Play and Tokyo Ghoul S are estimates. Their respective cumulative totals are actuals though. I'll update them when their numbers are updated in a day or two. You probably see me saying this a lot for smaller openers, but if a film doesn't rank high enough or gross enough (typically ¥100 million), they just aren't reported on time.

>Free! Road to the World - The Dream didn't see a weekend increase, but it did enjoy a single-digit hold. This film was produced by Kyoto Animation, the studio that lost 34 lives due to an arson attack a few days ago, so fans and supporters have been coming out strong since.

[SLAM!]

https://www.animenewsnetwork.com/news/2019-07-24/toronto-intl-film-fest-hosts-n-american-premiere-of-makoto-shinkai-weathering-with-you-film/.149294

 

Weathering With You will have its North American premiere at TIFF.

 

In other words, GKIDS is going for it.

[cannastop]

 

[cannastop]

http://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?p=2242672#p2242672

(C)2019「天気の子」製作委員会

Weekend Forecast (07/27-28)
01 (01) ¥889,000,000 ($8.2 million), -25%, ¥3,775,000,000 ($34.8 million), Weathering With You (Toho) WK2
02 (02) ¥598,000,000 ($5.5 million), -30%, ¥5,450,000,000 ($50.4 million), Toy Story 4 (Disney) WK3
03 (---) ¥250,000,000 ($2.3 million), 0, ¥325,000,000 ($3.0 million), The Great War of Archimedes (Toho) NEW
04 (---) ¥225,000,000 ($2.1 million), 0, ¥285,000,000 ($2.6 million), The Secret Life of Pets 2 (Toho-Towa) NEW
05 (03) ¥196,000,000 ($1.8 million), -32%, ¥10,925,000,000 ($100.6 million), Aladdin (Disney) WK8
06 (---) ¥180,000,000 ($1.7 million), 0, ¥260,000,000 ($2.4 million), Kamen Rider Zi-O: Over Quartzer! (Toei) NEW
07 (04) ¥156,000,000 ($1.4 million), -38%, ¥1,700,000,000 ($15.6 million), Pokemon: Mewtwo Strikes Back - Evolution (Toho) WK3
08 (05) ¥x54,000,000 ($495,000), -48%, ¥2,840,000,000 ($26.2 million), Spider-Man: Far From Home (Sony) WK5
09 (08) ¥x48,000,000 ($440,000), -40%, ¥1,050,000,000 ($9.7 million), The Diner (Warner Bros.) WK4
10 (10) ¥x39,000,000 ($360,000), -15%, ¥1,150,000,000 ($10.7 million), Uta no Prince-sama The Movie: Maji LOVE Kingdom (Shochiku) WK8

>Weathering With You will repeat atop the box-office over its second weekend. The film had very strong dailies (Mon-Fri. was ~4% higher than its opening weekend), another indicator that it's connecting with audiences. The film's soundtrack is back at #1 as well, overtaking Arashi's (Japan's biggest modern boy band) 20th anniversary album. I know I've mentioned this a lot, but a hit soundtrack often goes a long, long way to benefiting a film's box-office. Director Makoto Shinkai's novel of the film is also #1.

Its pre-sales going into its second weekend are down a good bit versus last weekend, but I'm not really reading too much into them given the hype and anticipation surrounding its debut last week. Overall ticket sales look good (Sunday in particular looks very good), so I'm expecting a good/great hold. 

>Toy Story 4 also enjoyed some strong dailies that matched its second weekend, but I will say that this is actually a slight worry because they should have came in comfortably ahead of its second weekend. Again, I don't want to label the film as "disappointing" (far from it), but following its ridiculous opening weekend, even if it was a holiday weekend, it just hasn't really been putting up the numbers that it should be -- yet. We'll see if it sees the expected big uptick once we get closer to, and of course during, the upcoming Obon Festival (mid-August). If it doesn't change course in two weeks, I think we can conclude the so-so audience reception really harmed this one's potential.

Third place to sixth place is a bit contested this weekend. 

>Kamen Rider Zi-O: Over Quartzer leads the bunch in pre-sales, but not by enough to convince me it'll debut in third place. Quite the opposite in fact. The franchise is very frontloaded, so I'm predicting it actually missed the Top 5. 

>The Great War of Archimedes is my pick to take the third place position, but I'm only slightly confident. It seems to be appealing to a rather older audience (strong morning/afternoon business versus weak evening/night business), so pre-sales can be misleading since older crowds aren't as likely to reserve their seats. 

>The Secret Life of Pets 2 will become a borderline bomb. It's looking at a possible 50%+ decline from its predecessor's opening weekend... If it does disappoint, or bomb, in addition to the poor box-office numbers for The Grinch (granted, it was likely to disappoint in Japan), Illumination's surprising status as an animation powerhouse in the market is in a worrisome state.

[Darth Lehnsherr]

Finally confirmed Australia release on the 22nd of August

[cannastop]

1 hour ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:

Finally confirmed Australia release on the 22nd of August

Wow! That's really short notice. Is it a wide release?

[cannastop]

I'm really worried that this will be a big retread of Your Name.

[Panda]

I preferred it to Your Name but still think 5cms was better than both

[Darth Lehnsherr]

4 hours ago, Panda said:

I preferred it to Your Name but still think 5cms was better than both

I literally just watched 5CMs today and man hit way too close to home.

 

On 8/11/2019 at 11:11 AM, cannastop said:

Wow! That's really short notice. Is it a wide release?

Wouldn't call it a wide release but not like it's too difficult to find screenings. 

[RealLyre]

 

 

WWY about to get 2 Oscar noms?

 

 

[cannastop]

2 hours ago, RealLyre said:

WWY about to get 2 Oscar noms?

It could get Oscar Noms in two different years, a la Woman in the Dunes or Battle of Algiers. But GKIDS say it's going to qualify for all categories with their limited release. And they can get Oscar nominations, unlike Funimation.

 

Also Princess Mononoke was submitted for the international film category for 1997 and had an American release in 1999, but neither years got it nominations.

Edited August 26, 2019 by cannastop

[Darth Lehnsherr]

Really fantastic though I do prefer Your Name and 5 Cms Per Second. The ending was an interesting choice. 

[cannastop]

7 hours ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:

Really fantastic though I do prefer Your Name and 5 Cms Per Second. The ending was an interesting choice. 

Subtitled, right? Do you know if there are plans for other Australian releases? Like maybe if it gets an Oscar nomination?

[lab276]

This is already out, why is it still in this forum?

[RealLyre]

 

 

 

[cannastop]

12 hours ago, lab276 said:

This is already out, why is it still in this forum?

Do we have an exact release date yet? For the USA+Canada?

Edited September 10, 2019 by cannastop

[cannastop]

Nice it's still 100% after 9 reviews on rotten tomatoes.