Wednesday (5/30) Numbers

[That One Girl]

3 minutes ago, Geo1500 said:

 

I don't understand the point in comparing Aladdin to old trends. Logical it dosen't give much fruits but each movie moves according to it's strength (promotions, excitement, fanbase, nostalgia, visuals, the unknown etc et) there is so many different things that can become a movies attraction hence it becomes its strength. People are into Godzilla wars etc etc. 

 

I generally see old trends being used in comparison mostly but it dosen't sense logically and factually as I mentioned already each movie has it's own strength and appeal which makes old trend comparison not useful in most parts

 

Sorry, what?  I’m just saying that unless Aladdin pulls off a miracle and does something that no Memorial Day opener has done in 20 years, it’s not hitting 60M this weekend.  I don’t understand how what I said is particularly unfair.  Memorial Day openers are known for having harsher second weekend drops due to their inflated holiday weekend.  I do think a scenario where it has a drop similar to Men in Black 3 is possible, but it remains to be seen how losing IMAX/PLF’s and three new 20M+ openers affects it.

[Geo1500]

3 hours ago, That One Guy said:

 

Sorry, what?  I’m just saying that unless Aladdin pulls off a miracle and does something that no Memorial Day opener has done in 20 years, it’s not hitting 60M this weekend.  I don’t understand how what I said is particularly unfair.  Memorial Day openers are known for having harsher second weekend drops due to their inflated holiday weekend.  I do think a scenario where it has a drop similar to Men in Black 3 is possible, but it remains to be seen how losing IMAX/PLF’s and three new 20M+ openers affects it.

 

Calling it a miracle is a bit over exaggeration. There is nothing to be surprised about. If a movie develops legs or falls short it's moving according to it's strength it has nothing to do with other outside factors.

 

I'm not saying it will or will not I don't have an opinion on that but all I am saying is nothing is like old trends nor do they follow such fixed patterns

Edited May 30, 2019 by Geo1500

[narniadis]

@That One Guy we have a site that has gained a bunch of new "know nothings." Probably best to not engage their rantings. 

I feel like we have lost a ton of regular active knowledgeable members over the past year or so. 

[narniadis]

As a reminder to all those that blatantly ignore actual data. 

Movies in weekend #2 face the difficulty of no previews adding grosses to the weekend. 

Secondly, for holiday weekend openers, especially Memorial Day, they will NOT have the same Sunday holds which add to their overall fall. 

This is not being stupid, ignorant or unwilling to consider word of mouth. It is being honest and upholding the data that exists every time these dates come around. 

 

Would love to see Aladdin do 50+ but realistically 45m would be amazing. 

Edited May 30, 2019 by narniadis

[Ryan Reynolds]

4 minutes ago, narniadis said:

As a reminder to all those that blatantly ignore actual data. 

Movies in weekend #2 face the difficulty of no previews adding grosses to the weekend. 

Secondly, for holiday weekend openers, especially Memorial Day, they will NOT have the same Sunday holds which add to their overall fall. 

This is not being stupid, ignorant or unwilling to consider word of mouth. It is being honest and upholding the data that exists every time these dates come around. 

 

Would love to see Aladdin do 50+ but realistically 45m would be amazing. 

Aladdin is not a cultural event like Black Panther which held amazing after a holiday with huge previews

[Geo1500]

25 minutes ago, narniadis said:

As a reminder to all those that blatantly ignore actual data. 

Movies in weekend #2 face the difficulty of no previews adding grosses to the weekend. 

Secondly, for holiday weekend openers, especially Memorial Day, they will NOT have the same Sunday holds which add to their overall fall. 

This is not being stupid, ignorant or unwilling to consider word of mouth. It is being honest and upholding the data that exists every time these dates come around. 

 

Would love to see Aladdin do 50+ but realistically 45m would be amazing. 

 

 I have no opinion on numbers but We will continue this convo post-weekend. We wait and see your predictions outcome

Edited May 30, 2019 by Geo1500

[keysersoze123]

I am amazed someone as experienced as Movieman is predicting 33% drop after memorial weekend with early previews. That is after it slightly increasing on memorial weekend sunday !!!!!

[DAJK]

45M second weekend would be like a 40-45% drop equivalent if Memorial Day Sunday didn't INCREASE from Saturday. 

 

I'm not going around saying 60M (or even 50) is "impossible" (even though it is VERY improbable), and not trying to shut anyone up who want to hope for that. We just have to put the numbers in perspective. Even a 25% Sunday drop (pretty much what Dumbo did recently and TJB a few years ago which had amazing WOM) would put the actual Sunday at 22.5M on a "regular weekend". 

 

So let's say that would mean Aladdin (given the exact same Friday/Saturday) would have opened to about 84M rather than 91.5M. 50% drop from that would be 42M. Doing 45M would mean the movie has an equivalent of a drop in the 40s percent-wise. 

 

I'm not arguing the WOM on this movie isn't great. But we can't discredit how much of a bump Memorial Day weekend would have had on the opening weekend, and we have to look at how such a bump might affect the second weekend drop. 

[Legion Again]

Taking out previews and using Mon instead of Sun for 3rd day would be an “adjusted” weekend of 80M for Aladdin. I could see 48 from there given the great reception, but any higher seem really tough given PLF loss.

[keysersoze123]

4 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Taking out previews and using Mon instead of Sun for 3rd day would be an “adjusted” weekend of 80M for Aladdin. I could see 48 from there given the great reception, but any higher seem really tough given PLF loss.

I like that prediction. 48m would be amazing after it loses all the iMax/PLF. I would hazard that is probable as well.

[harsh3090416]

I think aladdin will keep surprising people. But it will mostly be leggy. I think it should do around 45 to 50 million this weekend. At the same time I believe Aladdin will run kinda like Frozen. Frozen only had a opening weekend of 67 million and went on to make 400 million on the box office haha. I think aladdin will easily make 300 million. 

[keysersoze123]

1 minute ago, harsh3090416 said:

I think aladdin will keep surprising people. But it will mostly be leggy. I think it should do around 45 to 50 million this weekend. At the same time I believe Aladdin will run kinda like Frozen. Frozen only had a opening weekend of 67 million and went on to make 400 million on the box office haha. I think aladdin will easily make 300 million. 

I am sorry but you cannot compare a thanksgiving release with summer release. Frozen did gangbuster over the holidays and then had open runway in January. This is a different release schedule and competition is different.

[harsh3090416]

3 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I am sorry but you cannot compare a thanksgiving release with summer release. Frozen did gangbuster over the holidays and then had open runway in January. This is a different release schedule and competition is different.

If I was comparing them 1 : 1 I would say Aladdin would do 5.97x opening weekend like Frozen.  But like you pointed out this isn't the holiday season and other factors of open runway like frozen had. I'm saying aladdin will do 300+ which is only 3.27x opening weekend. 

[Krissykins]

57 minutes ago, harsh3090416 said:

If I was comparing them 1 : 1 I would say Aladdin would do 5.97x opening weekend like Frozen.  But like you pointed out this isn't the holiday season and other factors of open runway like frozen had. I'm saying aladdin will do 300+ which is only 3.27x opening weekend. 

Plus, Frozen was a phenomenon. 

[syntaxerror]

Well this escalated. I think both sides have valid points.

 

On one hand, historical trends are a thing. It is empirically true that Memorial Weekend debuts have a steep second week drop. Such trends have always been accurate so it would be a fools errand to argue against their value.

 

On the other, Aladdins day-to-day drops have been unprecedented. It would be understandable to think that this will be an exception and play well beyond past MW releases. That said, a 60M second weekend sounds a bit too detached from reality.

 

I think upper end 55M, which would be extraordinary and set up 350 up.

 

[BadAtGender]

54 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Plus, Frozen was a phenomenon. 

 

Both films had misgivings prior to release. But while Frozen became a runaway sensation and those misgivings were replaced with a WOM about it being an amazing experience for all. It transcended being just a movie.

 

The WOM on Aladdin is... it's not nearly as bad as we thought it would be?

 

It's doing very well compared to expectations. And it could hit 300m. If it holds similarly to TJB, adjusting Aladdin's 2nd weekend to match TJB's 3rd, that would have it... 60-ish million lower, which would be ~300m. It's probably likely to be a little worse on the weekends, but it does have stronger weekdays coming up.

 

[AlexMA]

So what seems to be the verdict on that $8 million Wednesday, over or under final?

[Maximum Avery]

5 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

when did we last have a Memorial day opener that had good WOM? I cant recollect in last 10-15 years.

Bruce almighty... shrek 2 had his 2nd weekend at mdw and made 96m...

 

TTVOMJ

[Minnale101]

I mean if Godzilla, TSLOP, x men and men in black all underperform which I think at the very least 3 of them will

 

aladdin will have some fantastic legs.

 

But really should not compare to frozen. That’s next level

 

the jungle book would good comp

[Maximum Avery]

4 hours ago, narniadis said:

As a reminder to all those that blatantly ignore actual data. 

Movies in weekend #2 face the difficulty of no previews adding grosses to the weekend. 

Secondly, for holiday weekend openers, especially Memorial Day, they will NOT have the same Sunday holds which add to their overall fall. 

This is not being stupid, ignorant or unwilling to consider word of mouth. It is being honest and upholding the data that exists every time these dates come around. 

 

Would love to see Aladdin do 50+ but realistically 45m would be amazing. 

Dont blatantly ignore anything.. not just data when it comes to a movie performance... easiest to go with the average box office route, but thats boring and safe as average guitar player on a birthday...

BUT you didnt mention that aladdin could have opened in a 200m 4day best case scenario.. what would his second week be then? Or why am i asking this.. why cant people pick up the slack now? Its a possibility and as an analyst you should know this and have your eyes wide open...

 

TTVOMJ

Edited May 30, 2019 by Maximum Avery
Typos