Weekend Thread: Weekend Actuals - Godzilla KOTM $47.77M | Aladdin $42.84M | Rocketman $25.72M | MA $18.09M

[LOGAN'sLuckyRun]

Just now, CoolEric258 said:

Rocketman: 90%

 

Speaking of which, where are the numbers for my boi Elton? 

[ddddeeee]

I love that Ma has been sold as 'Octavia Spencer has fun killing people' and it's going to be a hit.

[TigerPaw]

Good number, but can’t help to think why 3 big WB films all opened to just slightly below 60m for OW this year...

[DAJK]

Rocketman is a very VERY good movie. It isn't as "crowd pleasing" as Bohemian Rhapsody (there's nothing in it that's going to get people's blood pumping like Live Aid finale from BR) but I think most people who see it are going to really like it. WOM should be good, and I'm hoping for at least 30 for the weekend.

 

2.5 would be an excellent number for previews, but I wouldn't worry unless it comes in under 2

[LOGAN'sLuckyRun]

Just now, DAJK said:

Rocketman is a very VERY good movie. It isn't as "crowd pleasing" as Bohemian Rhapsody (there's nothing in it that's going to get people's blood pumping like Live Aid finale from BR) but I think most people who see it are going to really like it. WOM should be good, and I'm hoping for at least 30 for the weekend.

 

2.5 would be an excellent number for previews, but I wouldn't worry unless it comes in under 2

I wanna see it so bad. Hopefully by next Friday I can do a double showing of Rocket and John Wick (still haven't seen that either).

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, ddddeeee said:

I love that Ma has been sold as 'Octavia Spencer has fun killing people' and it's going to be a hit.

She's been really killing it ever since winning her Oscar. Two additional acting nominations, producing a Best Picture winner, and now headlining a thriller sold entirely on her name. Nice turn of events when a lot of people probably assumed she would just return to the bit roles that made up her pre-The Help career after she won.

[PDC1987]

19 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I doubt it hits 60m with this number with 4PM opening. Most likely around 50m. Also Pulse sales heavily weighted towards thursday and hourlies are not that strong. Well this has been the theme WW. wait till we get OD numbers WW, it wont be pretty.

??? Showings around me tonight are already packed.

[seduh]

I expect G2 to be frontloaded, $50 OW. Aladdin will be second very close. Aladdin win on thrusday, amazing

[DAJK]

Just wanna give a shoutout to Octavia Spencer! Like, honestly, her roles and profile have grown exponentially since the early 2000s.

 

 

 

[TalismanRing]

18 minutes ago, ddddeeee said:

I love that Ma has been sold as 'Octavia Spencer has fun killing people' and it's going to be a hit.

Fantastic.

 

From the LA Times

 

https://www.latimes.com/entertainment/movies/la-et-mn-ma-octavia-spencer-tate-taylor-20190530-story.html

 

Quote

 

As the longtime friends and collaborators tell it, Spencer was frustrated with the lack of interesting characters coming her way when Taylor called with an intriguing offer: a twisted tale that would let the Academy Award winner flex her darker impulses and show off a side of herself nobody had seen before.

 

“He said, ‘I have a horror film for you,’ and I said, ‘Let me stop you, because black people always get killed in the first 15 minutes,’” said Spencer, sitting next to Taylor on a basement couch in a historic West Adams mansion littered with red Solo cups and party detritus, set dressing evoking the ramshackle party pad of “Ma.”

 

 

“He said, ‘Not only are you not getting killed in the first 15 minutes — you get to do the killing.’ I said, sign me up!” she said, laughing.

 

Edited May 31, 2019 by TalismanRing

[LonePirate]

Godzilla and Rocketman seem to be meeting expectations judging by my nearby AMC. Ma, though, is selling very poorly.

 

ETA: Octavia’s most overlooked role to date was when she played a hooker in Bad Santa and tells Billy Bob Thornton that she could not shit right for a week after they had sex.

Edited May 31, 2019 by LonePirate

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, LonePirate said:

Godzilla and Rocketman seem to be meeting expectations judging by my nearby AMC. Ma, though, is selling very poorly.

I would expect Ma to see most of its sales come from at night (and from walk ups).

[keysersoze123]

Just now, PDC1987 said:

??? Showings around me tonight are already packed.

Anecdotal data cannot hide wider ticket sales. It did well yesterday in large IMAX, Dolby screens but not much elsewhere. Yesterday evening I was hoping its previews over perform bcos of higher average ticket price but that did not happen. Its overall gross was in line with ticket sales tracked by @Porthos to the dot. Also the famed huge walk-ins did not help much as well.

 

I am looking at the pulse numbers for a while and I have never seen any movie be this lopsided towards thursday.

 

Also in the last full hour sales its behind Rocketman !!!!

 

 

2019-05-31 07:00:00	964	Rocketman
2019-05-31 07:00:00	699	Godzilla King of the Monsters (2019)
2019-05-31 07:00:00	668	Aladdin (2019)
2019-05-31 07:00:00	444	Ma (2019)
2019-05-31 07:00:00	178	Avengers Endgame (2019)
2019-05-31 07:00:00	167	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum
2019-05-31 07:00:00	150	Godzilla King of the Monsters - The IMAX 2D Experience
2019-05-31 07:00:00	98	Godzilla King of the Monsters 3D (2019)
2019-05-31 07:00:00	92	Pokémon Detective Pikachu
2019-05-31 07:00:00	66	Aladdin 3D
2019-05-31 07:00:00	58	Booksmart
2019-05-31 07:00:00	37	Toy Story 4
2019-05-31 07:00:00	28	Brightburn
2019-05-31 07:00:00	22	The Secret Life of Pets 2
2019-05-31 07:00:00	19	Dark Phoenix
2019-05-31 07:00:00	13	Saving Private Ryan (1998) Event
2019-05-31 07:00:00	12	A Dogs Journey
2019-05-31 07:00:00	9	Dark Phoenix The IMAX 2D Experience
2019-05-31 07:00:00	7	Spider-Man Far From Home (2019)

[a2k]

GODZILLA did 10x it's previews over ow (9.3, 93).

8-9x gives KOTM 50-57 ow.

 

The super-early 4pm previews give a feeling that lower-end is more likely than not.

 

KSI did not come out in summer and pre-summer previews form a lower portion of ow usually. Also KOTM is a sequel unlike KSI. So KSI's good preview to ow multi should not raise hopes.

 

Edit:

 

2015 JW1 208.8/18.5 = 11.3x

2018 JW2 148.0/15.3 = 9.7x

 

A similar drop in multiplier would give KOTM 8.6x, 55.0 ow.

Edited May 31, 2019 by a2k

[OncomingStorm93]

44 minutes ago, Jayhawk said:

For WB it seems to be their new norm. Think it's silly because 4pm is too early to have first showings IMO, too many people are still at work. Though everyone is creeping up as 6 pm previews seem to be pretty normal for big movies with some special fan events at 5 pm also becoming quite commonplace.  

I agree. Logically, previews should start at 12am on Thursday. Or 10pm 8pm 6pm Wednesday.

[wildphantom]

Hmmm. I’m thinking $50-55 million weekend and Aladdin will have a great hold, with around $44 million. 

[LOGAN'sLuckyRun]

6 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I am looking at the pulse numbers for a while and I have never seen any movie be this lopsided towards thursday.

 

It would not shock me one bit if this film ends up being heavily frontloaded. It's very obvious that there are devoted Zilla fans who would want to see the movie as early as possible.

[titanic2187]

I am looking The Meg for comparison, the meg had 4m preview in summer season and legged out to 45m despite poor RT score

 

Apply the same to KoTM, 65m is where we looking at 

[sfran43]

 

[keysersoze123]

Just now, sfran43 said:

 

I still think 35m is possible. Pulse numbers look great. Since this is R rated it will play well late.