Tuesday Numbers:Big increases...

[Cappoedameron]

3 hours ago, Jonwo said:

If it gets to $150m, I think we'll get another Pokemon movie. 

...A sequel has already been confirmed as happening. Ryan has read the script and special effects crew from DP have announced their return on sequel. We're getting another Pokemon movie.

[SteveJaros]

I went to see "Ma" on Tuesday and my wife and I were both surprised at the number of people at our cinema. We know all about the cheaper ticket prices on Tuesday, but even factoring that in, the theater was *crowded*. Looked more like a Friday or a Saturday than anything else.

[TalismanRing]

30 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Speaking of Endgame, with the past 7 days multi of:  

CW 818+12.5*1.43=836M

IM3  818+12.5*1.52=837M

AoU  818+12.5*1.95=842M

IW  818+12.5*2.06=844M    

 

So it will probably need a Labor Day expansion for 840, and would miss 850 even with one.      

 

The opening was some once in a generation madness, and the total is of course spectacular, but it led to some ugly legs.

Really not - just lop $60m previews off the o/w and end total and it would have a 2.62 multi. 

 

Making another $480m+ after o/w isn't ugly.  

It's more than AOU made for it's entire run. 

It's about $60m more than Avengers & AIW made after their o/ws

It's about $20m under what BP made

 

A Labor Day expansion can yield about $6-8m (higher end if they start a week earlier like WW)

 

 

 

[sfran43]

 

[jedijake]

Did some quick math using BOM. These are the %'s of total box office runs for Memorial Day releases made after the second Tuesday.

 

Solo: 72%

POTC5: 70.1%

XMApoc: 78.7%

Tomorrowland: 71.4%

XMDOFP: 71.4%

FF6: 74.4%

MIB3: 65.45

Hangover2: 75.5%

Shrek3: 63.1%

NATM2: 61%

Indy5: 70.3%

 

Aladdin will probably end up having a lower percent made after today because it will have longer legs than some of the others. It needs to have made 66% or less of its total domestic run as of today to reach $300 million. That's in the ballpark of MIB3 and the more family oriented Museum 2 and Shrek 3. Its word of mouth is probably better than any of those movies listed except MAYBE DOFP which is a superhero film and thus had shorter legs. The average is around 70%. That gives Aladdin $282 million. It's going to be higher than that, but not sure how much.

[keysersoze123]

12 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Really not - just lop $60m previews off the o/w and end total and it would have a 2.62 multi. 

 

Making another $480m+ after o/w isn't ugly.  

It's more than AOU made for it's entire run. 

It's about $60m more than Avengers & AIW made after their o/ws

It's about $20m under what BP made

 

A Labor Day expansion can yield about $6-8m (higher end if they start a week earlier like WW)

 

  

 

I concur. They will expand week before considering IT 2 is opening week after Labor day.

[Taruseth]

5 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Really not - just lop $60m previews off the o/w and end total and it would have a 2.62 multi. 

 

Making another $480m+ after o/w isn't ugly.  

It's more than AOU made for it's entire run. 

It's about $60m more than Avengers & AIW made after their o/ws

It's about $20m under what BP made

 

A Labor Day expansion can yield about $6-8m (higher end if they start a week earlier like WW)

 

 

 

 

Only movies to make more after their OWend in their initial run are:

TFA $688.695m

Avatar $672.741m

Titanic $572.15m

BP $498.055m

Endgame $475-480m

 

And I think the only other movies to even do more than 400m are

Jurassic World $443.464m

Incredibles 2 $425.894m

IW $421.583m

Avengers $415.919m

TLJ $400.171m

 

In other words, only the Top 10 domestic grossed more than 400m after their OWend.

 

[sfran43]

 

[Legion Again]

I was pretty clear that I knew *why* the legs were bad in the original post guys. I don’t know why 5 people felt compelled to reiterate it.

[DeeCee]

2 hours ago, IronJimbo said:

endgame finally out of the top 10

@IronJimbo I hope you feel you’ve made your point here and in multiple other threads. It’s getting quite tiresome for everyone.  

 

Threadbanned!

[TalismanRing]

9 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

I was pretty clear that I knew *why* the legs were bad in the original post guys. I don’t know why 5 people felt compelled to reiterate it.

I's not re-iteration when others are saying why the legs are not bad

[Legion Again]

44 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Really not - just lop $60m previews off the o/w and end total and it would have a 2.62 multi. 

Lop the previews off any every other movie gets a much higher multi too. 2.62 is a pretty meh “minus previews” multi.     

 

45 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Making another $480m+ after o/w isn't ugly. 

It’s a great raw number, but it’s roughly 1.35x the OW. I’m pretty sure you know legs are a proportional rather than absolute metric. WW only added 300M. TGS only added 165M. “Money added post OW” isn’t how these things are calculated.

[Legion Again]

7 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

I's not re-iteration when others are saying why the legs are not bad

people were going out of their way to focus on other metrics to explain why the legs being bad is fine, which it absolutely is, but I never suggested otherwise.

[TalismanRing]

Just now, Thanos Legion said:

Lop the previews off any every other movie gets a much higher multi too. 2.62 is a pretty meh “minus previews” multi.     

 

It’s a great raw number, but it’s roughly 1.35x the OW. I’m pretty sure you know legs are a proportional rather than absolute metric. WW only added 300M. TGS only added 165M. “Money added post OW” isn’t how these things are calculated.

Only if one thinks $60m in previews is equivalent to another films $2 or $3 or $10 m in previews.  It's not.  Neither is the size of the opening w/e.
 

If it's all just proportional then the term great legs would only be used for small Indies that multiply off their ow in the tens or hundreds. 

 

But we don't do that, just as we have different ideas for great legs dependent on genre and season and yes the size of the o/w

 

 

[meriodejaneiro]

1 hour ago, Cappoedameron said:

...A sequel has already been confirmed as happening. Ryan has read the script and special effects crew from DP have announced their return on sequel. We're getting another Pokemon movie.

good for them ... I just hope when it comes close to release, all this madness about Pika 1B dom an smilar don't come along too (again). It was kind of tiring (similar to the Avatar-EG thing).

Edited June 5, 2019 by meriodejaneiro

[cdsacken]

Definitely no denying that DP is holding up well. Frankly I'm glad. I would rather not see a sequel of the same but a 3d animated version of the cartoon would be kinda awesome imo.

 

EG is falling big time. Aladdin is crushing it!

 

Not failing failing. Good god sorry

Edited June 6, 2019 by cdsacken

[Deja23]

8 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

EG is failing big time

[Legion Again]

20 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Only if one thinks $60m in previews is equivalent to another films $2 or $3 or $10 m in previews.  It's not.  Neither is the size of the opening w/e.
 

If it's all just proportional then the term great legs would only be used for small Indies that multiply off their ow in the tens or hundreds. 

 

But we don't do that, just as we have different ideas for great legs dependent on genre and season and yes the size of the o/w

 

 

I’m not saying it’s all proportional. 2.9 would be spectacular for a big opening blockbuster, not so much a Christmas animation. I’m saying there’s a balance between raw dollars and proportions. If Endgame ended at 790M it would still have added more post OW than all but 5 movies, but with really poor legs.       

 

Endgame dropped hard for perfectly understandable reasons, after huge previews, making a mockery of the true Friday, Saturday, and Sunday records, and being a the finale of a 22 movie arc. I understand all of that. But none of it negates the fact that it is dropping hard. Explaining the reasons for dropping hard doesn’t mean it isn’t.

Edited June 5, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[tawasal]

I am having issues trying to post. (If this post goes through, then I have been having issues wtf) What is going on?

[tawasal]

Why are people getting touchy for @Thanos Legion mentioning fairly harmless post about the legs of Endgame? It’s not like he is saying anything that isn’t true.