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Flop Weekend Thread: Top 5 Weekend Actuals - TSLOP2 $46.65M | Dark Phoenix $32.83M | Aladdin $24.68M | Godzilla KOTM $15.45M | Rocketman $13.82M

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22 minutes ago, oMeriMombatti said:

Since the release of A:EG, none of the movies except Aladdin did more in their OW than A:EG previews.  Looks set to continue this and next weekend as well. Don't know which non-Disney movie will do more except Hobbs and Shaw.

Similar situation with their DOM totals and AEG OD. What an utter unbelievably stupid weekend it had.

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46 minutes ago, oMeriMombatti said:

Since the release of A:EG, none of the movies except Aladdin did more in their OW than A:EG previews.  Looks set to continue this and next weekend as well. Don't know which non-Disney movie will do more except Hobbs and Shaw.

faR from home

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Just goes to show the importance of Charlie and Rth in the weekend threads. We don't have quick estimates anymore before the release of the official studio estimates (thanks to sfran for posting quickly). I hope both drop by in the weekend thread when TS4 opens in 2 weeks. Also kudos to Menor's Pulse estimates, it's a great help. The only disadvantage is that he doesn't track holdovers, only new releases.

Edited by UserHN
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5 hours ago, That One Guy said:
HELLBOY (2004) B-
HULK, THE (2003) B-



UNBREAKABLE (2000) C

 

This really shows I think the nature of CinemaScore as something that measures expectation rather than quality.

 

What all three of those have in common is not that they're poor but that marketing that one way or another janked with the reality of the movie.

 

Obviously Unbreakable especially was not what it promised to be, so audiences on the first night who expected something specifically different didn't know what to make of it.

 

So, yeah, think this always needs to be born in mind with Cinemascore. Especially when Midsommar rolls up with its inevitable glorious F! Bring it on! 

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28 minutes ago, UserHN said:

Just goes to show the importance of Charlie and Rth in the weekend threads. We don't have quick estimates anymore before the release of the official studio estimates (thanks to sfran for posting quickly). I hope both drop by in the weekend thread when TS4 opens in 2 weeks. Also kudos to Menor's Pulse estimates, it's a great help. The only disadvantage is that he doesn't track holdovers, only new releases.

We'll have Charlie back in 3 days

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Based on the summer so far, all I’m seeing is the reality of having too many mega blockbusters so close together. 

 

Why studios are so afraid of August I’ve no idea. Summer weekdays are great in June/July sure. But not necessarily when you’re third or fourth choice as there’s so much competition. 

 

Audiences are prioritising the big guns that never usually let them down. They’re happy to wait for KOTM, SLOP2, MIB. 

 

Toy Story is going to clean up in two weeks. Pets 2 weekend number will ram that point home. People are waiting for it to open their wallets. 

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Estimated 28m till Thursday OS including China and a projected 115m overseas OW for Dark Phoenix. 

 

https://deadline.com/2019/06/dark-phoenix-rises-in-china-with-12m-launch-day-are-dark-times-ahead-overseas-1202628273/

 

Combined with a possible 37m Dom opening, thats a lower worldwide opening than Shazam, Detective Pikachu and Godzilla 2. Heading for a likely sub 350m total gross, maybe even lower (300-325) since reviews are so bad

Edited by ZeeSoh
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5 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

Estimated 28m till Friday OS including China and a projected 115m overseas OW for Dark Phoenix. 

 

https://deadline.com/2019/06/dark-phoenix-rises-in-china-with-12m-launch-day-are-dark-times-ahead-overseas-1202628273/

 

Combined with a possible 37m Dom opening, thats a lower worldwide opening than Shazam, Detective Pikachu and Godzilla 2. Heading for a likely sub 350m total gross, maybe even lower (300-325) since reviews are so bad

has it opened in most markets? I know that legs are out of question but just curious if there's anything that could save its face at least a bit.

 

Deadline quote: "not a good look for this bird."

 

:rolleyes:

 

such cheesy try-hard attempt at wordplay with the phoenix title. Stahp.

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3 minutes ago, oMeriMombatti said:
Quote

The full launch session on the poorly reviewed Dark Phoenix will come in at the low end of pre-weekend projections, possibly around $115M for all offshore markets save Japan and Indonesia where it is still to bow in the coming weeks. That’s down on both Days Of Future Past ($148M in like-for-like markets at today’s rates) and Apocalypse ($134M).

$45-50m over the 4 Day in China is what was expected - though looks closer to the low end of that.

 

If it manages to hit that $115m that would be higher than early numbers would suggest and X-6 might wind up in the mid $300m WW club (along with Dumbo, Shazam! & maybe Godz 2)

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9 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

has it opened in most markets? I know that legs are out of question but just curious if there's anything that could save its face at least a bit.

 

Deadline quote: "not a good look for this bird."

 

:rolleyes:

 

such cheesy try-hard attempt at wordplay with the phoenix title. Stahp.

Indonesia and Japan are yet to come. Not sure about Indonesia but Apocalypse only did about 7.35m total in Japan (itself down about 23% from DoFP) and DP is likely gonna do even lower than that. 

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For all you Aladdin fans, it's breaking out in Japan.

 

corpse

 

Usual Locations (~70% of Market) - Saturday Ticket Sales:

10AM > 11AM > 12PM > 1PM > 2PM > 3PM > 4PM > 5PM > 7PM > 9PM > FINAL

25,090 > x33,718 > x65,555 > x82,521 > x92,695 > 133,900 > 157,507 > 164,428 > 207,078 - Aladdin

Previous Major Openers (Saturday Results) [2015-]
43,557 > x71,681 > x93,992 > 122,021 > 151,314 > 175,522 > 207,502 > 229,798 > 277,427 > 342,959 > 348,024 - Detective Conan 21
39,732 > x64,094 > x90,575 > 118,008 > 155,118 > 174,599 > 209,900 > 236,090 > 282,310 > 341,011 > 345,143 - Detective Conan 22
46,010 > x75,560 > x92,582 > 120,114 > 161,255 > 191,961 > 224,019 > 243,554 > 278,997 > 323,437 > 332,987 - Detective Conan 23
43,953 > x57,204 > x81,751 > 110,262 > 126,170 > 168,362 > 195,657 > 206,362 > 254,352 > 324,272 > 330,349 - Pirates of the Caribbean 5
74,565 > 116,519 > 144,266 > 177,687 > 206,086 > 240,279 > 271,568 > 281,438 > 308,702 > 317,438 > 317,709 - Yo-Kai Watch 2
52,996 > x60,631 > x75,890 > 117,855 > 124,236 > 147,342 > 187,892 > 197,398 > 226,441 > 286,005 > 293,246 - Star Wars VII
39,622 > x55,638 > x79,473 > x99,228 > 124,143 > 156,171 > 176,298 > 194,209 > 229,193 > 285,429 > 289,656 - Detective Conan 20
63,854 > x89,438 > 109,249 > 128,842 > 148,074 > 177,219 > 197,555 > 209,978 > 235,145 > 283,231 > 286,726 - One Piece Film Gold
37,688 > x51,536 > x78,625 > x96,317 > 110,615 > 147,556 > 158,990 > 176,601 > 209,065 > 278,130 > 283,482 - Star Wars VIII
30,914 > x42,990 > x62,982 > x85,904 > 102,185 > 140,690 > 163,724 > 174,087 > 209,595 > 261,046 > 266,911 - Jurassic World 2
35,649 > x44,489 > x58,686 > x69,098 > x88,527 > 103,765 > 131,753 > 161,863 > 196,572 > 255,793 > 262,671 - Beauty and the Beast
40,886 > x48,964 > x59,752 > x94,729 > 107,521 > 119,125 > 142,006 > 167,255 > 178,584 > 239,359 > 248,613 - Avengers: Endgame
37,850 > x52,209 > x81,753 > 101,473 > 119,605 > 161,180 > 177,321 > 188,231 > 210,871 > 235,354 > 241,332 - Code Blue
00,000 > x00,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 227,517 - Dragon Ball Z: Resurrection F
25,910 > x32,060 > x57,063 > x73,610 > x84,101 > 120,336 > 134,258 > 141,719 > 171,620 > 211,793 > 217,221 - Fantastic Beasts 2
00,000 > x00,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 209,804 - Detective Conan 19
17,886 > x31,861 > x46,109 > x55,320 > x84,164 > x94,353 > 114,193 > 134,889 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 202,075 - Your Name. 
00,000 > x00,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 196,491 - Jurassic World
26,792 > x41,467 > x59,601 > x72,157 > x99,348 > 117,861 > 135,650 > 147,193 > 165,271 > 185,998 > 193,053 - Dragon Ball Super: Broly
30,062 > x52,132 > x69,597 > x80,552 > 115,470 > 128,413 > 141,480 > 160,560 > 183,484 > 185,333 > 187,901 - Doraemon 38
31,532 > x41,391 > x68,734 > x84,425 > 116,091 > 129,657 > 143,882 > 158,848 > 171,269 > 174,628 > 174,797 - Doraemon 37
14,564 > x18,126 > x38,232 > x49,350 > x55,948 > x82,147 > x96,840 > 104,265 > 129,089 > 162,764 > 166,650 - Fantastic Beasts
29,064 > x44,099 > x66,420 > x80,789 > 104,701 > 124,875 > 137,005 > 144,884 > 153,968 > 157,751 > 157,910 - Doraemon 39

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3 minutes ago, cannastop said:

For all you Aladdin fans, it's breaking out in Japan.

 

corpse

 

Usual Locations (~70% of Market) - Saturday Ticket Sales:

10AM > 11AM > 12PM > 1PM > 2PM > 3PM > 4PM > 5PM > 7PM > 9PM > FINAL

25,090 > x33,718 > x65,555 > x82,521 > x92,695 > 133,900 > 157,507 > 164,428 > 207,078 - Aladdin

Previous Major Openers (Saturday Results) [2015-]
43,557 > x71,681 > x93,992 > 122,021 > 151,314 > 175,522 > 207,502 > 229,798 > 277,427 > 342,959 > 348,024 - Detective Conan 21
39,732 > x64,094 > x90,575 > 118,008 > 155,118 > 174,599 > 209,900 > 236,090 > 282,310 > 341,011 > 345,143 - Detective Conan 22
46,010 > x75,560 > x92,582 > 120,114 > 161,255 > 191,961 > 224,019 > 243,554 > 278,997 > 323,437 > 332,987 - Detective Conan 23
43,953 > x57,204 > x81,751 > 110,262 > 126,170 > 168,362 > 195,657 > 206,362 > 254,352 > 324,272 > 330,349 - Pirates of the Caribbean 5
74,565 > 116,519 > 144,266 > 177,687 > 206,086 > 240,279 > 271,568 > 281,438 > 308,702 > 317,438 > 317,709 - Yo-Kai Watch 2
52,996 > x60,631 > x75,890 > 117,855 > 124,236 > 147,342 > 187,892 > 197,398 > 226,441 > 286,005 > 293,246 - Star Wars VII
39,622 > x55,638 > x79,473 > x99,228 > 124,143 > 156,171 > 176,298 > 194,209 > 229,193 > 285,429 > 289,656 - Detective Conan 20
63,854 > x89,438 > 109,249 > 128,842 > 148,074 > 177,219 > 197,555 > 209,978 > 235,145 > 283,231 > 286,726 - One Piece Film Gold
37,688 > x51,536 > x78,625 > x96,317 > 110,615 > 147,556 > 158,990 > 176,601 > 209,065 > 278,130 > 283,482 - Star Wars VIII
30,914 > x42,990 > x62,982 > x85,904 > 102,185 > 140,690 > 163,724 > 174,087 > 209,595 > 261,046 > 266,911 - Jurassic World 2
35,649 > x44,489 > x58,686 > x69,098 > x88,527 > 103,765 > 131,753 > 161,863 > 196,572 > 255,793 > 262,671 - Beauty and the Beast
40,886 > x48,964 > x59,752 > x94,729 > 107,521 > 119,125 > 142,006 > 167,255 > 178,584 > 239,359 > 248,613 - Avengers: Endgame
37,850 > x52,209 > x81,753 > 101,473 > 119,605 > 161,180 > 177,321 > 188,231 > 210,871 > 235,354 > 241,332 - Code Blue
00,000 > x00,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 227,517 - Dragon Ball Z: Resurrection F
25,910 > x32,060 > x57,063 > x73,610 > x84,101 > 120,336 > 134,258 > 141,719 > 171,620 > 211,793 > 217,221 - Fantastic Beasts 2
00,000 > x00,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 209,804 - Detective Conan 19
17,886 > x31,861 > x46,109 > x55,320 > x84,164 > x94,353 > 114,193 > 134,889 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 202,075 - Your Name. 
00,000 > x00,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 196,491 - Jurassic World
26,792 > x41,467 > x59,601 > x72,157 > x99,348 > 117,861 > 135,650 > 147,193 > 165,271 > 185,998 > 193,053 - Dragon Ball Super: Broly
30,062 > x52,132 > x69,597 > x80,552 > 115,470 > 128,413 > 141,480 > 160,560 > 183,484 > 185,333 > 187,901 - Doraemon 38
31,532 > x41,391 > x68,734 > x84,425 > 116,091 > 129,657 > 143,882 > 158,848 > 171,269 > 174,628 > 174,797 - Doraemon 37
14,564 > x18,126 > x38,232 > x49,350 > x55,948 > x82,147 > x96,840 > 104,265 > 129,089 > 162,764 > 166,650 - Fantastic Beasts
29,064 > x44,099 > x66,420 > x80,789 > 104,701 > 124,875 > 137,005 > 144,884 > 153,968 > 157,751 > 157,910 - Doraemon 39

? explain plz ?

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56 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

Estimated 28m till Friday OS including China and a projected 115m overseas OW for Dark Phoenix. 

 

https://deadline.com/2019/06/dark-phoenix-rises-in-china-with-12m-launch-day-are-dark-times-ahead-overseas-1202628273/

Article says $28m till friday only in China and $28m OS till thursday. Total OS till friday should be about $60m

Edited by Litio
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Less than half of the previous SLOP movie is tragic. I thought it would at least clear 55M despite the low buzz. While I did have a gutcheck that the movie kinda felt like a non-event and Illumination lacked trying on their marketing side of things (same thing happened with Despicable Me 3 in 2017), I thought would still pull through and sell itself on brand alone. I was clearly wrong. It's not Alice Through The Looking Glass bad, but it probably won't hit 200M DOM and that's woeful for a sequel to a film that came close to 400M.

 

Still, at least it will be theatrically profitable and successful. The same can't be said for Dark Phoenix. A WW OW just barely above 100M on a 200M budget is yucktastic and makes Godzilla: King Of The Monsters' performance look beastly in comparison. Safe to say it won't hit 100 DOM with a sub-40 OW either. Terrible conclusion to a historic franchise.

 

DHD's extrapolations are dubious as they are, so I can't trust them just saying Aladdin will hit 25.5 because. It could and probably will go higher, considering its insane hold last week from a Memorial Day opening and the non-competition that Pets is proving to be. Will probably go closer to 30 and, should that be the case, 300M might actually be seriously in contention.

 

Godzilla awful, as expected. Rocketman pretty disappointing if it also meets DHD's expectations (I see it going more in the 4.5-5M line for Friday, though). Massive drop for Ma as well, but that one is fine already as it's Blumhouse and it cost a sack of chips to make.

Edited by MCKillswitch123
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