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Purple Minion

SECRET LIFE OF PETS 2 | 273.2M overseas ● 431.5M worldwide

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17 minutes ago, Omni said:

It only opened in Norway and Hong Kong this weekend, other than Australia, and it faced TS4 in many markets.

Germany and Brazil next weekend will give us a better picture of this movie's prospects.

The first Pets disappointed strangely in Brazil and Germany did fine so I'd say better to see how China, Japan and Mexico do in July (and Europe too but I think that's in late July..The staggered release makes it a bit harder to track.

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On 6/18/2019 at 6:08 AM, MinaTakla said:

Ha! Well I am rooting for some non-animation films later this year too but then I feel like..there's too much doom and gloom here about them that makes me feel sorry for them somehow.. apparently everyone (probably except you :p) thinks Minions 2 is certain to flop and drop I dunno like 50%-60% WW and that Illumination is (close to) dead and that Sing 2 and whatever else they make is gonna flop etc..

so I feel like they suddenly became a true underdog lol now that everyone is gleefully certain that their upcoming stuff will flop and all..which

sounds weird to say for a studio this size and track record 

There are definite reasons for all of this, I believe.  First of all, animation is a bit different in the sense that usually an old-school type of studio system is used, in which there is great continuity of staff between movies, along with an unusual (for movies in general) level of collaboration within each studio (even between the various directors in some cases).  This comes straight from how animation was produced since very early on (it's just about as old as live-action filming, at least in short form), through the processes that Walt Disney and his staff at WDAS (their current name) put in place, and then from there it was more or less emulated by every feature animation studio; in this sense, WDAS is where virtually all of the current big-budget western animated features ultimately trace their lineage from, even if their styles have become quite different.  What this means is that, true or not, it seems that in animation entire studios are the authors of their movies, and this encourages people to become loyal fans of certain animation studios, which creates much more of an atmosphere of rivalry between these studios and their fans.

 

In this forum there apparently are many fans of Pixar and/or WDAS (and a few of other animation studios), and the vast majority of them don't think much of Illumination's movies in general.  With the possible exception of the original Despicable Me, they all just seem like second-rate B-movies.  Many of these fans like animated features from a variety of other studios, so I think it's an honest opinion, not just automatic dislike for a competitor.  Now juxtapose this with the fact that Illumination has for quite a long time now been "eating the lunches" of WDAS and Pixar at the box office, year after year, frequently ending up as the top animation studio (except when WDAS released Frozen and Pixar released Incredibles 2--both enormous blockbusters, especially for animation); and in some years Illumination even beat them both combined.  I hope it's not envy that leads to hatred in these cases, and actually I don't think it is--it's a combination of honestly not thinking much of their movies in terms of quality and the strong sense that they are not deserving of the massive box office revenue they take in.  One movie here or there is simply a head-scratcher, but movie after movie and year after year, this situation starts to build and become a huge annoyance! :D  It feels like there is no justice in this case.

 

Not that it's right to hope for Illumination to falter or fail, even because of that, but if it's an indication that the "unwashed masses" have finally come to their senses regarding this studio and their movies, then that would be a good thing as well as a relief.  As for being an underdog, The Iron Giant was an underdog that didn't succeed, and a number of other movies that most animation fans in this forum like have underperformed.  Few are going to root for Illumination as an underdog as long as they don't like their movies.  Wishing for Illumination's demise is probably going too far, but seeing their movies earn less at the box office would be a welcome change--it feels like there is some justice after all. :)

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12 hours ago, Melvin Frohike said:

There are definite reasons for all of this, I believe. 

---

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Not that it's right to hope for Illumination to falter or fail, even because of that, but if it's an indication that the "unwashed masses" have finally come to their senses regarding this studio and their movies, then that would be a good thing as well as a relief.  As for being an underdog, The Iron Giant was an underdog that didn't succeed, and a number of other movies that most animation fans in this forum like have underperformed.  Few are going to root for Illumination as an underdog as long as they don't like their movies.  Wishing for Illumination's demise is probably going too far, but seeing their movies earn less at the box office would be a welcome change--it feels like there is some justice after all. :)

Great analysys!

Personally, I would love to see Illumination produce some very good movies, both visually and story-wise. Just like Dreamworks started to make some stuff worth watching after its first decade of craps.

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14 hours ago, MinaTakla said:

The first Pets disappointed strangely in Brazil and Germany did fine so I'd say better to see how China, Japan and Mexico do in July (and Europe too but I think that's in late July..The staggered release makes it a bit harder to track.

Brazil is still a major market, and a comparison to Slop1 is a good indication. Also, Germany is a country where bad animation is often very successful, it should be one of the markets with the best retention from the first movie and give us a better picture of how the movie will do in the rest of Europe (though Spain's closest comparison is often Italy, and that doesn't bode well at all).

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Both the new big countries are colossal failures, especially Germany.  Also I guess it opened in a few other countries (LA maybe), or the weekend drop would be really great.

 

France, Spain, China, Japan, Argentina, South Korea still remaining. The movie should do 350M -China -Japan.

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This weekend it also opened in some North Europe countries and LA countries. Not good at all, especially when considering Germany even increased from last weekend. France, Spain, South Korea and Japan remaining. Detective Pikachu looks to be the target:

 

263+

15/20M more domestically

60M OS (current markets)

40/45M F+Sp+SK

25/35M Japan?

=415/430M

 

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The O/U is probably $420M.

China is projected to be $25M or lower, and that's $11M out of $22M international that is had this last weekend.

There are still major markets (Mex, Japan, SK, ...) so it might still go higher or lower.

 

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10 hours ago, Mr Impossible said:

Yikes this is gonna drop more than 50% from the original. This might not bode well for Minions 2. 

I'm not sure why everyone is linking Pets 2 to Minions 2. Is it because it's the same studio?

When Cars 3 didn't do well at the box office, it didn't impact further sequels like Dory and TS4 etc.

Pets 2 WW gross is 100% disappointing and the China gross particularly is shockingly bad. I mean, even I who usually lowballs box office predictions didn't expect the movie to fail to cross 500WW.

But I just don't see the connection with Minions 2 just yet. I feel like the bad drop that Pets 2 got is due to a franchise that shouldn't have existed in the first place, a mistake that Illumination made by thinking Pets can be their next DM. Plus of course some minor external factors like the triple whammy of competition due to TS4/Aladdin and Lion King. Or, it could be that all upcoming non-event anamted films will greatly suffer in coming years due to streaming or low urgency to go see them. This may apply to Trolls 2, Croods 2, Sing 2 and the likes with possible exceptions to Frozen 2 and potentially Minions 2.

But I dunno if the failure of Pets 2 means that Illumination itself is damaged with its upcoming films all destined for huge drops...or if it's just simply that Pets "franchise" is over and out.

It's an interesting discussion. I'm just not sold on an Ice Age situation for Minions 2 just yet..

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2 hours ago, MinaTakla said:

I'm not sure why everyone is linking Pets 2 to Minions 2. Is it because it's the same studio?

When Cars 3 didn't do well at the box office, it didn't impact further sequels like Dory and TS4 etc.

Pets 2 WW gross is 100% disappointing and the China gross particularly is shockingly bad. I mean, even I who usually lowballs box office predictions didn't expect the movie to fail to cross 500WW.

But I just don't see the connection with Minions 2 just yet. I feel like the bad drop that Pets 2 got is due to a franchise that shouldn't have existed in the first place, a mistake that Illumination made by thinking Pets can be their next DM. Plus of course some minor external factors like the triple whammy of competition due to TS4/Aladdin and Lion King. Or, it could be that all upcoming non-event anamted films will greatly suffer in coming years due to streaming or low urgency to go see them. This may apply to Trolls 2, Croods 2, Sing 2 and the likes with possible exceptions to Frozen 2 and potentially Minions 2.

But I dunno if the failure of Pets 2 means that Illumination itself is damaged with its upcoming films all destined for huge drops...or if it's just simply that Pets "franchise" is over and out.

It's an interesting discussion. I'm just not sold on an Ice Age situation for Minions 2 just yet..

Yeah, this whole connection between Pets 2 and Minions 2 just doesn't make any sense. If Slop 2 is really a bad sign for a future Illumination product, that's Sing 2, their other cheap sequel to a film that didn't leave anything to the audience.

Also, as you said, it was hard for Illumination to find a worse release date for this. Minions 2 will have its usual July slot, and just like in 2017 the month will be empty (as of now, it looks to be the worst July in history...hope they'll add a blockbuster soon). It will have Soul as its only competitor, but it's not like Minions was hurt by Inside Out or the first Pets by Dory. Minions are still very popular, and unlike the Ice Age characters, they actually sell well in merch. In my opinion, Pirates 5's total gross is the absolute minimum Minions 2 will do.

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20 hours ago, MaxAggressor said:

 

It's making a killing in Germany:

Wend: 198k (€1676k ≈ $1885k) / with Previews (on Sunday before): 241k (€2009 ≈ $2260k)

2nd Wend: 318k (€2611k ≈ $2940k)

3rd Wend: 355k (€2900k ≈ $3275k) so 79.3% above OWend, but to be fair OWend were like 35+ °C everywhere and than no one goes to the cinema and this Wend was like 15-20 °C and rainy so cinema is where the people will go and Aladdin increase from it's 6th to it's 8th Wend by 70% too, (so it's 8th Wend is about 70% below OWend)

Also Pets 3rd Wend in adm is above Spider-Mans 2nd Wend but in €/$ Spidey is first.

 

Cume: 1170k (€9650 ≈ $10850k)

 

Wend is basically the same as Pets after starting like 70% below that and Pets added 1625k after such a Wend.

Total (Range): 2250k-2750k (€18250k-€22275k ≈ $20500k-$25000k) for a Multi of 11.36x-13.89x (10.89x-13.29x)

Which would be a drop of 41.5%-28.5% (41.5%-28.5%, ER are quite similar)

 

Next Wend should be way hotter again (25-30 °C) so I expect Pets to drop to something like 200-250k which would still be above OWend.

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