a2k Posted June 13, 2019 Share Posted June 13, 2019 7 minutes ago, RamblinRed said: You are probably being overly aggressive on Sunday. Most movies will have decreases on Sunday, just not quite as large. The avg last year was a 10% drop. One other note on Godzilla. I expect a significant theater count hit tomorrow. It has the 2nd widest numbers of theaters right now and this is the first week theaters can drop it. I've also noticed it is moving to smaller screens in the cinemas this week. The 2 closest to me are both moving it from a larger screen to one of their smallest. I do think your estimate pretty good, I'm thinking 8 to 8.5 as well. Solo increased on FD Sunday and I thought KOTM skewing heavily male even compared to GZ14 and KSI, will benefit more on Sun than other movies. Regarding Fri bump, they get smaller and smaller as summer sets in. Last Fri was +58% so went with +51% this Fri. Hopefully despite the screen loss it doesn't do worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RamblinRed Posted June 13, 2019 Share Posted June 13, 2019 5 minutes ago, WP Kelley said: Thank you. That helps follow your thinking. Are my figures accurate? I have it at $115 in China, and $15 in Japan as of today? Can't figure out the rest of the world to save my life. That's $215 from Dom, China and Japan. Any idea the rest of the world? It was 292M WW as of Sunday. It took a pretty hard hit last weekend in Japan from Aladdin opening there. it was 16M Japan as of Sunday, It looks like for final numbers you are going to have 135-140 China 27-30 Japan 105-110 DOM So low end 267 and high end 280 for DOM+CH+J. Likely going to need 120M from the rest of OS markets to get to 400M. Problem is the OS markets in Europe and SA have been poor and will likely finish lower than DOM. If I had to guess i'd go with 390-392 as a final WW number. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny Max Posted June 13, 2019 Share Posted June 13, 2019 7 minutes ago, WP Kelley said: Thank you. That helps follow your thinking. Are my figures accurate? I have it at $115 in China, and $15 in Japan as of today? Can't figure out the rest of the world to save my life. That's $215 from Dom, China and Japan. Any idea the rest of the world? Japan till 2nd weekend :- $16.9 M ... China till today :- $117.62 M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Krissykins Posted June 13, 2019 Share Posted June 13, 2019 Blumhouse are releasing Black Christmas this December 13th. Amazing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny Max Posted June 13, 2019 Share Posted June 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, RamblinRed said: It was 292M WW as of Sunday. It took a pretty hard hit last weekend in Japan from Aladdin opening there. it was 16M Japan as of Sunday, It looks like for final numbers you are going to have 135-140 China 27-30 Japan 105-110 DOM So low end 267 and high end 280 for DOM+CH+J. Likely going to need 120M from the rest of OS markets to get to 400M. Problem is the OS markets in Europe and SA have been poor and will likely finish lower than DOM. If I had to guess i'd go with 390-392 as a final WW number. yep ... that's the biggest problem for KOTM .. even with normal legs movie would have been crossed $400 M easily .. but Europe & latin countries letting the film down... though movie is yet to release in Spain .. (expecting few million Euros) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tawasal Posted June 13, 2019 Share Posted June 13, 2019 2 hours ago, Charlie Jatinder said: https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/leaderboard/?time=week 3 cameron-ites in top 4 last week. wtf did happen here. @NCsoft is amazing, unlike the other 2 cameron-ites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sfran43 Posted June 13, 2019 Author Share Posted June 13, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sfran43 Posted June 13, 2019 Author Share Posted June 13, 2019 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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Taruseth Posted June 13, 2019 Share Posted June 13, 2019 28 minutes ago, Sunny Max said: yep ... that's the biggest problem for KOTM .. even with normal legs movie would have been crossed $400 M easily .. but Europe & latin countries letting the film down... though movie is yet to release in Spain .. (expecting few million Euros) Godzilla only did around $3m in Spain, so I guess KOTM should be happy if it gets past 1.5m, because in comparison that would be a good drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sfran43 Posted June 13, 2019 Author Share Posted June 13, 2019 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WP Kelley Posted June 13, 2019 Share Posted June 13, 2019 32 minutes ago, RamblinRed said: It was 292M WW as of Sunday. It took a pretty hard hit last weekend in Japan from Aladdin opening there. it was 16M Japan as of Sunday, It looks like for final numbers you are going to have 135-140 China 27-30 Japan 105-110 DOM So low end 267 and high end 280 for DOM+CH+J. Likely going to need 120M from the rest of OS markets to get to 400M. Problem is the OS markets in Europe and SA have been poor and will likely finish lower than DOM. If I had to guess i'd go with 390-392 as a final WW number. As I scour the different threads, I keep coming up with a different number. I really hope I'm wrong. I'm reading revised predictions of 130 China, 25 Japan, 105 Dom. Can any of you see the rest of the world which is at 90 right now, having more than 10 left? That totals 360. How about the big 3? Any of them have a surprise left for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sfran43 Posted June 13, 2019 Author Share Posted June 13, 2019 But which one is on top?!😂 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted June 13, 2019 Share Posted June 13, 2019 9 minutes ago, sfran43 said: -31.5% and -36.9% compared to last Wednesday, but at least still a bit above Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Biggestgeekever Posted June 13, 2019 Share Posted June 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, sfran43 said: But which one is on top?!😂 Godzilla by less than 3k lol - (4) Godzilla: King of the Monsters Warner Bros. $1,585,122 -36% 4,108 $386 $84,236,941 13 - (5) Rocketman Paramount Pictures $1,582,852 -32% 3,610 $438 $55,816,804 13 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny Max Posted June 13, 2019 Share Posted June 13, 2019 7 minutes ago, Taruseth said: Godzilla only did around $3m in Spain, so I guess KOTM should be happy if it gets past 1.5m, because in comparison that would be a good drop. yeah .. that too with competition ... Same date as TS4 ... 😶 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RamblinRed Posted June 13, 2019 Share Posted June 13, 2019 $2,270 between Godzilla and RM. Good hold for Aladdin. Was hoping for 3.3, but 3.2 isn't bad and it is above its Monday which is the only movie in the top 6 to accomplish that. I think it will be right around 3 for today. If other areas are like where I live and cinemas are moving Aladdin into bigger auditoriums this weekend than it was in last weekend I think it will be interesting to see where it is by Sunday. I could see it finishing #2 on Sunday. Will be interesting to see how much more walk-up friendly MIB is compared to XDP. On the tracking thread its pre-sales are running roughly 50% of XDP at the same time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnnyGossamer Posted June 13, 2019 Share Posted June 13, 2019 (edited) 1 hour ago, Krissykins said: Blumhouse are releasing Black Christmas this December 13th. Amazing. Re-release? Or, are they remaking that unequivocal classic? Edited June 13, 2019 by JohnnyGossamer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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a2k Posted June 13, 2019 Share Posted June 13, 2019 1 hour ago, RamblinRed said: It was 292M WW as of Sunday. It took a pretty hard hit last weekend in Japan from Aladdin opening there. it was 16M Japan as of Sunday, It looks like for final numbers you are going to have 135-140 China 27-30 Japan 105-110 DOM So low end 267 and high end 280 for DOM+CH+J. Likely going to need 120M from the rest of OS markets to get to 400M. Problem is the OS markets in Europe and SA have been poor and will likely finish lower than DOM. If I had to guess i'd go with 390-392 as a final WW number. China update seems to be $125 at most cause it will dead in 7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
