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Dead Weekend Walking Thread: Actuals - MIB International $30.03M | TSLOP2 $24.41M | Aladdin $17.31M | Rocketman $9.42M | Dark Phoenix $9.35M | SHAFT $8.90M

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With Aladdin grossing say 320 DOM and people talking about crazy OS runs incoming, is 1B WW possible? I would say no, that I don't think 680M is achievable, but I'm not sure what numbers we're actually looking at. I'm still hoping for 500-550 range, but are people thinking it can actually go higher?

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29 minutes ago, UserHN said:

Remember when the Pika trailer came out just after the teaser for TS4 came out? So many people were so hyped for Pika and they confidently said that it will overshadow TS4 and declared right then and there that Pika will gross a billion.

Yes, and that hype for Pikachu went far beyond these forums, with many publications citing it as a potential billion dollar grosser. Meanwhile the narrative surrounding Toy Story 4 has completely 180'ed since reviews came out. While it obviously always had potential, its hard to say how much hype there was given peoples feelings about the first 3. In any case, Pika led TS4 across all social platforms

 

On a side note, Illumination is showing potentially the opposite of the Pixar effect. Many Illumination films outgrossed even Pixar's crown jewels (Minions about TS3, SLOP over Inside Out) but now we're seeing potential chinks in Illumination's armor. Quality, while it doesnt always pay off immediately at the BO, pays off LT, and that LT focus has always defined Pixar

 

For those under-predicting Tenet, think again. This is Nolan we're talking about, and his profile has only risen further after Dunkirk. He hasnt given us any reason to question both his ability to make great films or for those films to make a lot of money, regardless of the genre. I agree that Tenet will likely have broader appeal than Dunkirk (maybe not Interstellar though given the star power/popularity of the space concept (within a few years we saw Interstellar, Gravity and The Martian do great business), but I still feel Nolan himself has become an even greater draw at the domestic box office in the interim and that at least 200M dom is a pretty good bet given the reasonable assumption that the film will be great

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MIB seems like it'll get a decent Saturday bump. The morning Pulse sales were actually higher than Friday which is very unusual. It looks like 9-11 for now but I could see my range going higher.

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1 hour ago, Menor said:

The first 4 Transformers movies all made over 200 million. Therefore The Last Knight was locked to make over 200 million.

Do you have brain damage?

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FACT: Big willie was mad they made a MIB sequel without him so he became the genie in Aladdin in order to assassinate the film's box office.

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to show how big of a draw Will Smith was, Wild Wild West adjusts to over 200m

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55 minutes ago, TMP said:

A Nolan war movie did $190m dom, I don't see why a Nolan spy movie wouldn't do $200m dom.

 

Why are we talking about next summer?

 

Reactionary debates are boring. A terrible few weeks at the box office doesn't spell jack shit for next year. 

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2 minutes ago, tonytr87 said:

 

Why are we talking about next summer?

 

Reactionary debates are boring. A terrible few weeks at the box office doesn't spell jack shit for next year. 

*Reactive

 

(Forgive me, the misuse of the word 'reactionary' is an irrational peeve I have, and am currently seeking therapy to get over.)

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21 minutes ago, DAJK said:

With Aladdin grossing say 320 DOM and people talking about crazy OS runs incoming, is 1B WW possible? I would say no, that I don't think 680M is achievable, but I'm not sure what numbers we're actually looking at. I'm still hoping for 500-550 range, but are people thinking it can actually go higher?

$1 b is out of reach yeah ... but movie can go higher than our expectations ...

 

i m seeing $900 M+  (japan & korea breaking-out)

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23 minutes ago, Menor said:

MIB seems like it'll get a decent Saturday bump. The morning Pulse sales were actually higher than Friday which is very unusual. It looks like 9-11 for now but I could see my range going higher.

could weekend go higher than $26 M ???

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10 minutes ago, John Marston said:

to show how big of a draw Will Smith was, Wild Wild West adjusts to over 200m

wow just looked at the original men in black and it made 250m back in the day, $492m in todays money, that would be a $1 billion movie today. Crazy. had forgotten how big it was.

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3 minutes ago, Sunny Max said:

could weekend go higher than $26 M ???

Quite possible, given that tomorrow should have a Father's Day effect

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8 minutes ago, tonytr87 said:

 

Why are we talking about next summer?

 

Reactionary debates are boring. A terrible few weeks at the box office doesn't spell jack shit for next year. 

Cause this one is looking to be one of the most dire in recent memory. There aren't even any specialty titles looking to make waves either.

 

Luckily we have Toy Story coming up plus surefire hits in July between Spider-Man, Lion King, and Hollywood. Hobbs & Shaw is the first weekend of August but then it's looking to be a very dry period for over a month until IT Chapter Two opens.

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4 minutes ago, Avatree said:

wow just looked at the original men in black and it made 250m back in the day, $492m in todays money, that would be a $1 billion movie today. Crazy. had forgotten how big it was.

 

Thinking back on my memories at the time, there was definitely an ID4 bump. Will Smith fighting aliens again was a big draw.

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Just now, Menor said:

Quite possible, given that tomorrow should have a Father's Day effect

yeah ... will see 

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14 minutes ago, tonytr87 said:

 

Why are we talking about next summer?

 

Reactionary debates are boring. A terrible few weeks at the box office doesn't spell jack shit for next year. 

I didn't bring up summer 2020 

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Posted (edited)

Studios didn't seem to learn their lesson after 2017 (or perhaps the effect just had a higher latency period than I hoped), but maybe just maybe this will be another hint to rethink their blockbuster models. 

 

 

Edited by tribefan695

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8 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Cause this one is looking to be one of the most dire in recent memory. There aren't even any specialty titles looking to make waves either.

 

Luckily we have Toy Story coming up plus surefire hits in July between Spider-Man, Lion King, and Hollywood. Hobbs & Shaw is the first weekend of August but then it's looking to be a very dry period for over a month until IT Chapter Two opens.

Is once upon a time in hollywood a "surefire hit"? Don't really see what it has going for it other than Leo.

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Just now, Avatree said:

Is once upon a time in hollywood a "surefire hit"? Don't really see what it has going for it other than Leo.

Great reviews? An empty market-place for non-genre fare? 

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Posted (edited)

Anyone else feel like Mulan will do 1B WW. 320-350 DOM + 1B (OS including J 350 and 400M -China

 

 

Edited by Geo1500

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