Dead Weekend Walking Thread: Actuals - MIB International $30.03M | TSLOP2 $24.41M | Aladdin $17.31M | Rocketman $9.42M | Dark Phoenix $9.35M | SHAFT $8.90M

[Geo1500]

13 minutes ago, john2000 said:

depends if lion king make 1.4-1.5 and ffh make 1.1-1.2 then thats not wipe the floor at all, 

 

It could be possible for both but the question is why are they opening so close to each other? FFH could have moved to September where they can defeat the competition there quite easily or even late august and have complete monopoly 

 

 

Edited June 15, 2019 by Geo1500

[John Marston]

Will Will Smith use his recent resurgence in popularity to fulfill his dream of making After Earth a franchise 

 

Overbrook's not-too-modest pitch document detailed plans for not only the movie and its sequel but also a television show, an animated series, webisodes, a video game, consumer products, theme park attractions, comic books, an ‘in-school education program in partnership with NASA’ and ‘cologne, perfume, toiletries, etc.’ Fans would become so engaged, the pitch document advised, ‘it is also essential to create a stand-alone AE-branded Social Network.’

 

 

https://screencrush.com/after-earth-transmedia-universe/

[TalismanRing]

Just now, cannastop said:

Did people stop loving The Lion King? Beauty and the Beast? Why would a 2D movie not be a success if it were made?

It's been 25 years.  Tastes change and different types of animation have become more popular.   Even by the early 2000's great movies like Lilo & Stitch and Emperor's New Groove weren't making the kind of money they should have while Shrek was thriving. 

 

Look at Laika and Salon - which gave us Kubo & Song Of The Sea in the same year.  It didn't matter that both were visually stunning beautiful stories.  Stop motion & hand drawn animation aren't that commercial. 

[john2000]

5 minutes ago, Geo1500 said:

 

It could be possible for both but the question is why are they opening so close to each other? FFH could have moved to September where they can defeat the competition there quite easily or even late august and have complete monopoly 

 

 

actually the far from home already set for that date like 2 years ago, if anything lion king should move, but again its summer and while far from home will probably increase over hc, sony already burned once with a sequel, so probably they want to make sure that ffh does well, also the budget from ffh is alomst the same as hc, so it seems that sony tries to be more carefull here they will probably do something else with the sequel

Edited June 15, 2019 by john2000

[TalismanRing]

4 minutes ago, John Marston said:

Will Will Smith use his recent resurgence in popularity to fulfill his dream of making After Earth a franchise 

 

 

 

 

https://screencrush.com/after-earth-transmedia-universe/

When After Earth is what made him have to have a comeback.  Sure, double down on that mistake.

 

[MCKillswitch123]

I'll say this about this Summer: while, so far, it feels like a complete wasteland of disappointment, the majority of wide releases that have come out in it have been successful:

• Obviously, it's very debatable whether you count Avengers: Endgame as a Summer movie or not, but if you do..... c'mon, it made nearly 8x its 356M production budget (the third biggest in history, only after Pirates 4 and, weirdly enough, Age Of Ultron), it's easily one of the most profitable films of all time;
• The Intruder, as one of the Screen Gems African American thrillers that follows the Blumhouse model of "low budget niche that makes its money back on OW", turned out to be surprisingly leggy for a film of its kind, and has made 36M WW (33M of those from DOM) on a 8M budget, 4.5x its budget;
• Pokémon: Detective Pikachu, on a 150M budget, has grossed over 410M, meaning it is close to tripling its budget and has done more than 2.5x it, so while it may have been an underperformer based on expectations, it certainly isn't a flop by any stretch.... as a matter of fact, it's a safely profitable hit for WB;
• The Hustle, believe it or not, has grossed 78M WW on a 21M budget, meaning it has nearly quadrupled its budget and making United Artists a shocking amount of profit;
• John Wick: Chapter 3, Parabellum cost 75M and has made over 260M WW, making it a easy runaway hit and one of the most profitable blockbusters of the Summer so far;
• I can't find A Dog's Journey's budget anywhere, but A Dog's Purpose only cost 22M to make, so I doubt that the budget ballooned much higher, and the film has made 60M WW so far, so I imagine it probably already is a safe one for Universal;
• Aladdin is obviously one of the biggest hits of the Summer, having made over 626M, more than 3x its 183 budget, and probably on its way to doing 4-5x its budget;
• Brightburn hasn't been a gigantic money making machine, but it has currently made just under 30M on a 12M budget, around 2.5x its budget, so it's definitely far from a flop as well;
• Booksmart has also made more than 3x its budget, with 19M on a 6M budget, so again, despite not being a monster hit, it has been a profitable turnout;
• Rocketman, on a modest 40M budget, has already managed to hit over 115M WW and still has plenty of gas in the tank, so it's well in the green at this point.... it ain't gonna be A Star Is Born and especially a Bohemian Rhapsody, but there's nothing wrong with that as those two films set abnormally high bars to beat;
• Ma, in typical Blumhouse fashion, tripled its budget on DOM OW alone, and has currently summed up 45M WW on a 5M budget.... meaning it is really close to doing 10x its budget;
• The Secret Life Of Pets 2, while it has been a huge underperformer and drop-off from the original, has already made 124M WW on a budget of 80M, with still plenty left to make in its current markets + a crap ton of markets where it's yet to release, so it will surely be in the green without a doubt.

The Summer hasn't spawned a lot of bombs so far, and only a few of them have been huge bombs:

• Long Shot was shockingly expensive to make for an R-rated comedy - 40M.... Rogen and Charlize must've been a hell of a paycheck - and so far, the film has only been able to make its budget back, 30M of its current 40+ haul being from DOM, though..... the film does still have plenty of markets left to open on, though, so even though it will likely still fall quite short of the 80M mark it needs to hit to be in the green, it won't be a huge loss for Lionsgate either;
• UglyDolls is one of the few fugly bombs of the Summer and one of the biggest failures of the year so far, having only made 25M WW on a 53M budget. Similarly to Long Shot, it still has a lot of markets to open on, and those are markets that are fond of animation; however, best case scenario is it makes its budget back and that's about it;
• Poms has currently made 15M WW on a 10M budget, and with some markets left to open, it could still make the 5M it needs to be in the green, nevermind that it might do well in ancilliaries, so while it ain't a hit right now, it's definitely not a big loss either and it could still end up passing the safe line;
• Tolkien is definitely a failure, having only made 7.8M on a 20M budget, and while it still has a few markets left to open and it could eventually get its budget back, it has no chance of being anything but a money loser.... however, yet again, it's not a terrible loss due to how tiny the budget is;
• The Sun Is Also A Star is in the exact same situation as Tolkien, except on an even smaller budget (9M), making it even less of a worry for its financers;
• Godzilla: King Of The Monsters will top out at around 380M on a 200M budget, which isn't good and makes it a bomb, but again, not a gigantic bomb either. Certainly not compared to.....
• Dark Phoenix. This thing will make around 230M WW..... also on a 200M budget. Ouch.

As you can see, the ratio is 11/18 hits (12/19 if you count Endgame), a safe majority. And only a few of these are big bombs anyway. As far as MIB International, I think it will be in the green, as I don't see it missing the 220M WW mark it needs to double its 110 budget (should have better legs than Dark Phoenix despite a smaller opening). And Shaft.... well, it won't be a huge loss anyway as its budget was fairly modest.

[AniNate]

1 hour ago, Menor said:

I meant real world hype. Not online hype. And TS4 is a sequel to a movie that made 415 million DOM in 2010. Idk though there's no way to quantify or prove these things. We can agree to disagree on this.

It's usually pretty difficult to get a good read on just how big buzz really is for kids properties. I figured Pikachu was mostly internet because of the gamer community, but Illumination movies have never had passionate adult followings online like Pixar has. Their box office success was more built on their knack for short form promotional comedy that's appealing on a superficial level and makes parents "not mind" going to see it.

 

I think TS4 probably would not perform as well as the last movie if it got the much weaker reception its detractors probably anticipated. But obviously now with its critical acclaim that's all by the boards and there's no reason to think it won't be big regardless of how weak its trailers were.

 

 

Edited June 15, 2019 by tribefan695

[dudalb]

1 hour ago, Justin4125 said:

Yea, strange decision on no music. Also, Mulan is one of the less appreciated Disney Renaissance flicks in China (if the Douban score is any indication). People have too often made the mistake in thinking that Chinese actors/storylines make a film a surefire hit in China (same with Japan), so I think we can't for sure say for sure that it has any more break out potential than any other live action adaptation in Asia. Lets not forget, its still a Western film and thats primarily how it will be perceived in those markets (again, if history is any indication).

 

I do think Mulan has a lot of potential I am not docking the film, but I think there is reason to temper our expectations about the kind of business it will do in Asia

Not to mention Mulan is a well known story in CHina, and there have been a number of big Chinese epics on the subject.

[dudalb]

13 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

When After Earth is what made him have to have a comeback.  Sure, double down on that mistake.

 

I have to laugh at the idea of After Earth being a franchise. I find it  incredible that anybody could seriously make that statement.

And let's wait and see if Will Smith comeback is for real or just a one shot deal, the way some of Eddie Murphy's comebacks were.

And I am finding the amount of ass kissing Disney gets around here to be a little disgusting.

[Geo1500]

19 minutes ago, john2000 said:

actually the far from home already set for that date like 2 years ago, if anything lion king should move, but again its summer and while far from home will probably increase over hc, sony already burned once with a sequel, so probably they want to make sure that ffh does well, also the budget from ffh is alomst the same as hc, so it seems that sony tries to be more carefull here they will probably do something else with the sequel

Whoever came last should have moved. Recently Zilla vs Kong moved away from March 2020 due to competition and imo that was a wise decision.

 

Next year in the summer Fast and furious 9 vs Wonder woman 1984

Edited June 15, 2019 by Geo1500

[Geo1500]

24 minutes ago, dudalb said:

Not to mention Mulan is a well known story in CHina, and there have been a number of big Chinese epics on the subject.

 

Mulan has a fanbase and not to forget alot of SJWs, feminists, and Me-to movements will come out to it. It truly dosen't lack manpower and audience. The director is also a female it's frontloaded. Budget is over 300M. It's not gonna be classic story but Disney's take complete different

Edited June 15, 2019 by Geo1500

[Sunny Max]

4 minutes ago, Geo1500 said:

Next year in the summer Fast and furious 9 vs Wonder woman 1984

big summer .... 

[Krissykins]

11 minutes ago, Sunny Max said:

big summer .... 

Wonder Woman will be bigger than anything released so far this summer lol 

[Krissykins]

The top 5 films are all rotten. Splat! 

 

Hopefully Rocketman overtakes Dark Phoenix to save some face for the weekend. 

[Sunny Max]

Just now, Krissykins said:

Wonder Woman will be bigger than anything released so far this summer lol 

 lol 

[VanillaSkies]

So with that hold, everyone has now accepted that Aladdin will be crossing 300 million, right?
With Father's Day on Sunday, it will make $17-18 million this weekend, and then another great hold next weekend thanks to double features with Toy Story.

 

Combine that with the strong summer weekdays it's been enjoying and there is really no way it misses 300 million at this point, which is crazy since everyone was expecting this to be a big bomb.

[a2k]

Did not expect KOTM to jump higher than last Fri as summer gets stronger and it lost lots of screens too.

 

Jun 7, 2019	4	$4,187,861	+58%	4,108	$1,019	$67,244,958	8
Jun 8, 2019	4	$6,323,831	+51%	4,108	$1,539	$73,568,789	9
Jun 9, 2019	4	$4,938,715	-22%	4,108	$1,202	$78,507,504	10
Jun 10, 2019	4	$1,674,271	-66%	4,108	$408	$80,181,775	11
Jun 11, 2019	4	$2,470,044	+48%	4,108	$601	$82,651,819	12
Jun 12, 2019	4	$1,585,122	-36%	4,108	$386	$84,236,941	13
Jun 13, 2019	5	$1,346,231	-15%	4,108	$328	$85,583,172	14
Jun 14, 2019	7	$2,165,000	+61%	3,207	$675	$87,748,172	15

 

Hoping 8+ weekend. Keeps 110 dom alive even though next weekend drop should be hefty due Sun-Sun drop.

 

2.165

2.81 (+30%)

2.95 (+5%)

= 7.925

Edited June 15, 2019 by a2k

[Sunny Max]

3 minutes ago, a2k said:

Did not expect KOTM to jump higher than last Fri as summer gets stronger and it lost lots of screens too.

 

Jun 7, 2019	4	$4,187,861	+58%	4,108	$1,019	$67,244,958	8
Jun 8, 2019	4	$6,323,831	+51%	4,108	$1,539	$73,568,789	9
Jun 9, 2019	4	$4,938,715	-22%	4,108	$1,202	$78,507,504	10
Jun 10, 2019	4	$1,674,271	-66%	4,108	$408	$80,181,775	11
Jun 11, 2019	4	$2,470,044	+48%	4,108	$601	$82,651,819	12
Jun 12, 2019	4	$1,585,122	-36%	4,108	$386	$84,236,941	13
Jun 13, 2019	5	$1,346,231	-15%	4,108	$328	$85,583,172	14
Jun 14, 2019	7	$2,165,000	+61%	3,207	$675	$87,748,172	15

 

Hoping 8.5 weekend, 95.1 cume happens. Keeps 110 dom alive even though next weekend drop should be hefty due Sun-Sun drop.

 

Optimistically,

2.165

3.36 (+55%)

3.19 (-5%)

= 8.715

yep didnt expect jump for KOTM ....Nice Fri/Sat all around .. (China & Japan)

 

domestic $110 M is alive now ... 

[CJohn]

...how is MIB in 4.200+ theaters?

[CoolioD1]

5 hours ago, TMP said:

Wonder Woman, Tenet and Black Widow should be the biggest things next summer. 

 

6 hours ago, CoolEric258 said:

Tenet seems destined to be a movie everybody predicts will do huge numbers only to do like 180M or something.

 

6 hours ago, TMP said:

A Nolan war movie did $190m dom, I don't see why a Nolan spy movie wouldn't do $200m dom.

I would maybe like to know one (1) thing about tenet's plot before saying stuff like this.