Dead Weekend Walking Thread: Actuals - MIB International $30.03M | TSLOP2 $24.41M | Aladdin $17.31M | Rocketman $9.42M | Dark Phoenix $9.35M | SHAFT $8.90M

[Macleod]

2 hours ago, XO21 said:

Third weekend. Second weekend was """just""" 67%.

"Hellboy" had a lower second weekend drop than Dark Phoenix??  Wow. 

 

("Hellboy" is in quotes because I don't really acknowledge it legitimately.)

Edited June 16, 2019 by Macleod

[Eric Atreides]

23 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

It's odd that MIB International couldn't catch on but Ocean's 8 was a success. 

It's been mentioned before, but the main reason people like MIB is Will Smith. No one really cares about the world or lore of Men in Black, so take him out and nobody cares, unless you brought in a new A-lister.

 

That's an issue with a lot of other star-driven vehicles, but when they get repackaged, studios played it smart by getting a huge A-Lister people like to replace the previous A-lister people like. Ocean's 8, Jumanji and Aladdin played it smart because they got a big actor people like to help spark interest and buzz. The only reason I saw these movies was because I like Sandra/Cate/Dwayne/Will, and I wanted to see what they would do with the material. Obviously the bad reviews would still cause the movie to sink, but I think replacing just one of the two leads with an A-lister (RDJ would have probably done wonders in the Hems role) would have helped it garner a bit more money on OW.

Edited June 16, 2019 by CoolEric258

[Justin4125]

1 hour ago, LawrenceBrolivier said:

You were comparing it to John Wick 2 though weren't you?

Oh Im sorry, I meant JW2 in context as Jurassic World 2, I was comparing last year's summer biggies to this year's summer biggies, pointing out that while we may only have 2 non-Disney titles to beat JW3 domestically this summer, we only had 2 non Disney flicks to do so last year (Jurassic World and MI5).

Again, I do think Hobbs and Shaw can beat JW3 domestically, but just not by that much. Im expected a 20/80 DOM/OS split like with Fate

 

1 hour ago, MovieMan89 said:

Even FFH can't be considered any kind of win against the Disney monopoly since it's only doing what it does because it's part of Disney's biggest current franchise. 

Isnt the film produced by Marvel studios? Disney participates from the film's success in 2 ways. First it could expand the MCU, strengthening the brand adding more fans etc and it has a financial connection through toy sales. Spiderman is one of the best (1 and 2 with Batman) merch seller of all the superheros. In short, the more success FFH the more Disney profits. Between Spiderman with Sony and now owning Fox, I honestly feel the FTC should have stopped the Fox merger

 

On the other hand, I think it would have helped Disney to be able to end Phase 4 on Endgame. I feel like another MCU movie so soon could really stretch the franchise. Then again theyve released so many movies in such quick succession without tiring audiences, so maybe not (honestly the most impressive part of the MCU, 4bn from MCU last year and another 4bn this year (~5bn with spiderman). LIterally mind blowing, hate them or love them, the Marvel studios on its own could be a major Hollywood studio and there's something perverse about that much box office success)

 

[Ledmonkey96]

Huh.... assuming 200mil happens for TS4, and honestly even if it doesn't, Disney is almost guaranteed to end the first 6 months of the year over 2 billion Domestic. After this weekend they only need about 270mil, and they've got 2 full weekends to get there. Not just that they'll hit 2 billion before anyone else hits 1 billion and then they've also got Lion King before anyone will get close to 1 billion. 

 

Assuming another 70mil dom for Aladdin and Endgame residuals + TS4 making 550mil~ Lion King would need 650mil for Disney to make 3 billion dom before anyone else passes 1 billion. Is that possible....

Edited June 16, 2019 by Ledmonkey96

[John Marston]

A showing of Dark Phoenix near me is sold out. Guess some poor souls might think it is a good Father’s Day choice 

[Jonwo]

23 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

It's been mentioned before, but the main reason people like MIB is Will Smith. No one really cares about the world or lore of Men in Black, so take him out and nobody cares, unless you brought in a new A-lister.

 

That's an issue with a lot of other star-driven vehicles, but when they get repackaged, studios played it smart by getting a huge A-Lister people like to replace the previous A-lister people like. Ocean's 8, Jumanji and Aladdin played it smart because they got a big actor people like to help spark interest and buzz. The only reason I saw these movies was because I like Sandra/Cate/Dwayne/Will, and I wanted to see what they would do with the material. Obviously the bad reviews would still cause the movie to sink, but I think replacing just one of the two leads with an A-lister (RDJ would have probably done wonders in the Hems role) would have helped it garner a bit more money on OW.

Sony had a similar issue with Ghostbusters 2016 but that at least opened well but the budget was simply too high.

 

 

[Taruseth]

The current weekend is the 24th of the year and 5 different studios had the position of the highest grossing studio on at least one weekend:

#1:  WB & Disney with 7 each

#3: Uni with 6

#4: Sony with 3

#5: Lionsgate with 1.

 

So different from the total gross in this WB and Disney are even, shows that Disney won some by a gigantic margin (CM OWend, Avengers OWend & 2nd Wend).

[LawrenceBrolivier]

24 minutes ago, Justin4125 said:

Oh Im sorry, I meant JW2 in context as Jurassic World 2,

This is why I try not to use acronyms LOL. Sorry for the misunderstanding.

[DAR]

Bob Iger:  

 

Disney’s existence while gross and incomprehensible to some saves the box office.  You don’t want the truth because deep down in sub Reddits.  You need Disney in theaters.  You want Disney in theaters.   We use words like Marvel, Pixar and Remakes. We use these a backbone to prop up business. You use them as a punchline.   

 

[Maxmoser3]

Sequels lead depressing  Father’s Day weekend.

 

Both sequels Men In Black: International and Shaft both underperformed on the worst Father’s Day weekend since possibly 2003! As the top 12 was at $123 million which is down massively from last year, and was at its low for June since 2012, but overall probably a toss up for this since 2003 or 2012. 

 

Men In Black: Internarional led the top spot this weekend with an estimated $28 million. That debut is remarkably lower than its predecessors, and the debut is well below Sony’s fellow underperformed all-female Ghostbusters reboot back in 2016 and is also lower than the other Will Smith absent Independence Day: Resurgence. The debut is in-line with Sony’s Will Smith underperformer After Earth. It is also ahead of Sony sci-fi-comedy bomb Pixels($24.8 million). 

 

A partial reason probably why MIB:International flopped was that audiences didn’t care to see a reboot without their favorite characters in it. This was primarily sold as a Marvel cash grab slapped with the Men In Black title. Also this would’ve been more appealing as a 5-10 minute Saturday Night Live Skit. And what the hell happened to the idea about the Jump Street/MIB crossover? C’mon Sony! 

 

According  to Deadline, they’re saying that $300 million worldwide would be the break-even point. However, it’s stateside total will definitely miss the $100 million mark, hell it may be lucky to outgross Pixels domestically. 

 

Secret Life Of Pets 2 had an alright hold nothing special. The sequel will benefit from weekdays for sure, but it will be interesting to see how it will play out when Toy Story 4 hits Thursday night. 

 

Aladdin still a leggy champ, outside of Avengers: Endgame so far this is the highest grossing film of the Summer! With great word of mouth this has proved to be a nice surprise for 2019. Aladdin should do shout $305 million or so domestically. 

 

Dark Phoenix suffered one of the biggest 2nd weekend declines in 2019. It’s drop is by far the worst for any X-Men film, and  even past June bombs like The Mummy dropped way lower. Fox is in a major rut this year, as their only hit has been Breakthrough. So definitely New Mutants may be shelved again after this. Dark Phoenix will die off with $60 million total, making it one of Summer 2019 and 2019’s potential biggest bomb yet! 

 

Rocketman still holding on in the top 5. It’s drops under 50% are good, and considering it’s dailies have been outstanding! This has been a decent sized hit for paramount and so far one of the few winners of the summer season! I hope $100 million domestic is still in line for this, if not $85-$90 million would be great for it as well! 

 

Shaft didn’t give the box office a big stiffy this weekend. The debut is by far Samuel L. Jackson’s lowest-grossing debuts in years! The problem with this film was that Warner Bros had no clue how to market the film only with flashy name cards and the theme song. That’s not going to sell a film in today’s day and age. Oh well, maybe Netflix will save it’s loss. But it’s domestic side may fall short of the debut of the 2000 film for sure.

 

Godzilla trying to maintain box office. It’s overseas trying to help as its near $340 million worldwide. But it’s domestic total may come close to 300: Rise Of An Empire’s domestic total thats all I can see happen for it at this point sadly.

 

John Wick 3 shooting up close to $150 million stateside. Just like Rocketman, and Aladdin, this is one of the nice success stories of the summer! 

 

Late Night expanded to lackluster results. Amazon Studios are flop kings from Gringo to Suspiria remake to Life Itself to now Late Night. The TV spots and posters to this were quite unappealing and what was the point of this getting a theatrical release? Maybe a VOD release would’ve been smarter. The poster looked like Emma Thompson and Mindy Kaling were

there for cash that’s it. 

 

Ma dropping but profitable for Blumhouse. Horror counter programming might be a tight squeeze for this one for the next two weeks with Child’s Play and Annabelle 3. But still a profitable flick.

 

Dead Don’t Die debuted eh. May be a film I’d buy on dvd in September.

 

Avengers:Endgame hanging out still a massive profit. 

 

As for 2019, not much. Next weekend will be big I have a feeling Toy Story 4 will do big, and Child’s Play could serve as a solid counterpart. 

[cdsacken]

SLOP2 was ridiculous but fun. Daughter loved it. Super pleased with length of film. To me it was good enough.

Edited June 16, 2019 by cdsacken

[john2000]

hey guys at least see the bright side of things, this weekend couldnt be worse

[Ledmonkey96]

Just now, john2000 said:

hey guys at least see the bright side of things, this weekend couldnt be worse

Wait for actuals before saying that 

[john2000]

Just now, Ledmonkey96 said:

Wait for actuals before saying that 

[MagnarTheGreat]

Toy Story 4 by itself doing ~$400M would bring the first half of 2019's Top 10 total and average close to 2015 and 2016 and 2017, but not the median (middle number derived by adding #5 & #6 together and dividing by 2).

 

Top 10 Domestic Movies Unadjusted Box Office (releases in first (a) and second (b) separate halves of year 2014-2019)
Rank	2014a	2015a	2016a	2017a	2018a	2019a*
1st	$259.8M	$652.3M	$486.3M	$504.0M	$700.1M	$830.5M
2nd	$257.8M	$459.0M	$408.1M	$412.6M	$678.8M	$426.5M
3rd	$245.4M	$356.5M	$364.0M	$389.8M	$608.6M	$263.4M
4th	$241.4M	$353.0M	$363.1M	$264.6M	$417.7M	$175.0M
5th	$233.9M	$201.2M	$341.3M	$226.3M	$318.5M	$160.8M
6th	$202.9M	$184.3M	$330.4M	$226.0M	$213.8M	$148.6M
7th	$200.7M	$177.4M	$155.4M	$176.0M	$188.0M	$140.8M
8th	$191.7M	$166.2M	$143.5M	$175.8M	$140.2M	$139.6M
9th	$177.0M	$163.0M	$127.4M	$175.0M	$137.7M	$113.9M
10th	$150.9M	$155.2M	$107.5M	$172.6M	$115.3M	$111.0M
Total	$2.161B	$2.868B	$2.827B	$2.723B	$3.519B	$2.510B
Average	$216.1M	$286.8M	$282.7M	$272.3M	$351.9M	$251.0M
Median	$218.4M	$192.7M	$335.8M	$226.1M	$266.1M	$154.7M
Rank	2014b	2015b	2016b	2017b	2018b	2019b*
1st	$350.1M	$936.7M	$532.2M	$620.2M	$335.1M	TBD
2nd	$337.1M	$336.0M	$368.4M	$404.5M	$270.6M	TBD
3rd	$333.2M	$281.7M	$325.1M	$334.2M	$220.2M	TBD
4th	$255.1M	$228.4M	$270.4M	$327.5M	$216.6M	TBD
5th	$222.5M	$200.1M	$248.8M	$315.1M	$216.4M	TBD
6th	$208.5M	$195.0M	$234.0M	$229.0M	$215.3M	TBD
7th	$191.2M	$183.6M	$232.6M	$209.7M	$213.5M	TBD
8th	$188.0M	$180.2M	$169.6M	$188.0M	$201.1M	TBD
9th	$167.8M	$169.7M	$162.4M	$174.3M	$190.2M	TBD
10th	$128.0M	$161.2M	$158.8M	$146.9M	$174.5M	TBD
Total	$2.382B	$2.873B	$2.702B	$2.949B	$2.254B	TBD
Average	$238.2M	$287.3M	$270.2M	$294.9M	$225.4M	TBD
Median	$215.5M	$197.6M	$241.4M	$272.0M	$215.9M	TBD
* 2019 results not final

[Menor the Destroyer]

Endgame's Pulse sales are already significantly ahead of yesterday's total number at 5 PM. I can't give an exact number but that's very unusual, and no other movie is seeing quite that kind of strength (although JW3 is close to its total from yesterday). Maybe it's getting a really strong Father's Day bump.

[john2000]

1 minute ago, Menor said:

Endgame's Pulse sales are already significantly ahead of yesterday's total number at 5 PM. I can't give an exact number but that's very unusual, and no other movie is seeing quite that kind of strength (although JW3 is close to its total from yesterday). Maybe it's getting a really strong Father's Day bump.

bigger sunday than expected ?

[That One Girl]

.

Edited March 13, 2022 by That One Guy

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 minute ago, john2000 said:

bigger sunday than expected ?

Most likely, yeah, given this and the fact that Disney usually underestimates.

[Sunny Max]

so bigger sunday for AEG ... good ..