Dead Weekend Walking Thread: Actuals - MIB International $30.03M | TSLOP2 $24.41M | Aladdin $17.31M | Rocketman $9.42M | Dark Phoenix $9.35M | SHAFT $8.90M

[a2k]

20 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

The Mother of All Hemsbombs.

if mib can make it to 60 odd dom then hemsworth will average 450 dom this year 

[sfran43]

 

 

[YM!]

12 minutes ago, UserHN said:

Why is BP obvious and WW not?

BP was a $700M DOM grossing movie as well as the first major African American tentpole, I have a hard time seeing an increase.

 

While I have WW84 at a flat increase/decrease, it benefits from a weak ass summer. Black Widow at best would do Homecoming numbers, Scoob will limp to $100M, and Fast 9 and Spong3bob will have nasty drops. As for June, Top Gun will pull a MIBI as no one under 25 cares about it, the Pixar movie is uncertain but is counterprogramming, and In The Heights, which I’m thinking $200M is Also counterprogramming. July although has a lot of things taking screens, I can’t see anything but Jungle Cruise going over $200M.

 

The ceiling is higher for WW84 as well as CM2 than it is for BP2 as those two were around $400M.

Edited June 17, 2019 by YourMother the Edgelord

[UserHN]

13 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

BP was a $700M DOM grossing movie as well as the first major African American tentpole, I have a hard time seeing an increase.

 

While I have WW84 at a flat increase/decrease, it benefits from a weak ass summer. Black Widow at best would do Homecoming numbers, Scoob will limp to $100M, and Fast 9 and Spong3bob will have nasty drops. As for June, Top Gun will pull a MIBI as no one under 25 cares about it, the Pixar movie is uncertain but is counterprogramming, and In The Heights, which I’m thinking $200M is Also counterprogramming. July although has a lot of things taking screens, I can’t see anything but Jungle Cruise going over $200M.

 

The ceiling is higher for WW84 as well as CM2 than it is for BP2 as those two were around $400M.

But WW also greatly benefited from the novelty of seeing the first female superhero on the big screen. That won't be the case anymore when WW2 opens next year.

[YM!]

5 minutes ago, UserHN said:

But WW also greatly benefited from the novelty of seeing the first female superhero on the big screen. That won't be the case anymore when WW2 opens next year.

Yes but the ceiling was smaller, that's like saying CM2 will decrease because of the lack of Endgame factor. 

 

Black Panther was a completely different beast than WW or CM or any other non Avengers superhero movie

[Legion Again]

I think decrease decrease, but I’ve certainly seen crazier things happen than increase, increase. 

[Cap]

All I know: After 15 years of hearing that female lead superhero movies will not/can not make money, I will find it incredibly satisfying to see Wonder Woman and Black Widow as number one and number two for Summer 2020.

 

 

[PKMLover]

Pulse Tickets sold, updated till 24:00 Central US, Sunday.

Comparing to Saturday number:

MIB +6.74%

XDP +10.52%

Aladdin +1.09%

Rocketman -6.9%

SLOP2 -5.2%

KOTM +20.45%

Shaft +2.1%

JW3 +32.25%

EG +25.77%

Pika -11.7%

[baumer]

3 hours ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

I won't say 300 but Black Panther and Wonder Woman 84 are dropping from original for obvious reasons.

 

Doubt WW drops much. Probably opens much higher and summer legs gets it close to 400.

[Darth Lehnsherr]

With these cultural phenomenons usually a sequel drop is guaranteed when it's Amazing OW + amazing legs which is what Black Panther had. WW had amazing legs but while its OW was very good I think we can all agree it had the potential to be bigger. So WW84 should have some room to grow. Also I still think there is a massivr crave for female led superheroes that Black Widow and WW84 will both benefit from.

[xiazhi]

4 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

BP is obvious yes, but I see nothing obvious about why WW would drop? It had a super deflated OW and then insane WOM. 400 is far from the ceiling for CBMs, as we know. It can easily go up.

I see both drop and ww drops harder than bp.

by the time 1984 is released, we’ll have two successful female superhero movies from mcu. Hype to see another one will die down a lot

[xiazhi]

3 hours ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Yes but the ceiling was smaller, that's like saying CM2 will decrease because of the lack of Endgame factor. 

 

Black Panther was a completely different beast than WW or CM or any other non Avengers superhero movie

Cm isn’t too far behind bp globally. Its Asian box office made up for quite a bit.

both have way better OS than WW.

[Porthos]

Now here's a strange and unusual thought for some to chew on.

 

Maybe, just maybe, Wonder Woman is a popular character in her own right and not just because of her gender.

 

Is it really that hard to believe that a DC superhero film can do 400m+ when the last installment for the character had fantastic WOM?

 

Seems to me some folks are selling Diana Prince a little bit short if they think the success of Wonder Woman was mainly because she was a woman.

[Maximum Avery]

3 hours ago, captainwondyful said:

All I know: After 15 years of hearing that female lead superhero movies will not/can not make money, I will find it incredibly satisfying to see Wonder Woman and Black Widow as number one and number two for Summer 2020.

 

 

Cant believe you give credit to that kind of 15y old baseless grudge^^ hollywood accounting is slower than it should be:) but make a good movie and peoplw will turn up(ww)... not like her crotch had anything to do with movie's success... if it was bad it would have failed

 

TTVOMJ

 

[Sunny Max]

8 hours ago, a2k said:

I hope KOTM does better than that 15% Sun drop.

 

China, Japan, Dom combined will about 25 left to offer after this weekend which will take it to 365 ww.

Rest of the markets will help it to 380 ww. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

hahahh yeah ..    KOTM giving us surprise after surprise ...

 

$130 M is alive in china & japan doing well too ..  lol 

[Sunny Max]

6 hours ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

I won't say 300 but Black Panther and Wonder Woman 84 are dropping from original for obvious reasons.

BP yes ... but WW84 might not drop that much ..

 

will see 

[Justin4125]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

Seems to me some folks are selling Diana Prince a little bit short if they think the success of Wonder Woman was mainly because she was a woman.

You are absolutely right, we cannot ascribe WW's success to her gender and no one should go so far as to say that that was the primary reason for the film's success. 

 

However, I do think it undeniably helped the film at the BO, but this has nothing to do with any kind of disbelief that the DCEU can succeed on this level (the DC films have performed very well even without WW, potential is sky high as far as Im concerned). Rather it is simply that women overindexed and female demos increased even more after OW helping to fuel her legs. From Deadline

A lot of this box office momentum can be attributed to the strong turnout by female audiences who have been waiting for this classic superhero’s big screen debut. With any four-quad superhero movie, there’s never any concern about guys showing up; it’s typically the females who trail just a tad behind.

She hit those demos even more so than Captain Marvel. I think both WW and BP benefited from a "first of its kind" cultural event status, which in both cases hinged on the movie being good (both films were hailed by critics as the best of their respective franchises). They received a ton of free advertising from supportive news stations, newspapers, social media frenzies etc and as a result also pulled in an unusually high proportion of non-CBM fans. Crazy Rich Asians falls into this category as well, and for all three movies mentioned so far, that the target demos overindexed so significantly helped to fuel the box office

 

Again, not a dig against the film in any way. I agree that the high multiplier (together with huge after market success) suggests the potential of WW may actually be much higher

[Sunny Max]

1 hour ago, xiazhi said:

I see both drop and ww drops harder than bp.

by the time 1984 is released, we’ll have two successful female superhero movies from mcu. Hype to see another one will die down a lot

WW84 will not drop that much ... 

Edited June 17, 2019 by Sunny Max

[a2k]

IM1's multi was 3.19x (removed 3.5m Thu from dom for the sake of it). IM2 dropped to 2.44x

If WW84 shows a similar drop in legs then it will go from 4x to 3.06x.

 

GOTG2 was 2.66x compared to GOTG1's 3.53x.

That drop gives WW84 3.01x.

 

In the end it will come down to reception and demand burnt off during ow but 2.8-3.2x is a reasonable guess.

[Sunny Max]

3 minutes ago, a2k said:

IM1's multi was 3.19x (removed 3.5m Thu from dom for the sake of it). IM2 dropped to 2.44x

If WW84 shows a similar drop in legs then it will go from 4x to 3.06x.

 

GOTG2 was 2.66x compared to GOTG1's 3.53x.

That drop gives WW84 3.01x.

 

In the end it will come down to reception and demand burnt off during ow but 2.8-3.2x is a reasonable guess.

Perfect calculations ... but WW84 Definitely will open much bigger than previous part ... & with the summer holidays help movie can get to close $400 M ... that's minimum with similar kind of wom ..