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1 hour ago, PKMLover said:

Any new update about Monday number? Or it is still the same as?

Do we need another update ? 😛

Sort of numbers are, they are boring for official update as well.

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5 hours ago, a2k said:

1m would be a great hold for KOTM compared to last Monday. Down 40% weekly.

 

Not being that optimistic in the numbers below but 110 dom looks fine :

 

1

1.45 (+45%)

0.91 (-37.5%)

0.73 (-20%)

= 4.09 [98.46]

 

1.06 (+45%)

1.59 (+50%)

1.23 (-22.5%)

= 3.88 (-55.8%) [102.34]

 

~7.7 away from 110

Yep, looks like it should leg out right to 110.

 

Probably 135 in China and 26-27 in Japan.

It's at 103 everywhere else, that may get to 110.

So it looks like 385 is the likely number.

 

 

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4 hours ago, john2000 said:

will they do that for endgame too ?

I doubt it. Endgame isn't really a good fit to pair with TS4. Aladdin is a great fit to pair with it as both are basically family movies that appeal to all segments.

 

Also, pairing a movie with a 3-hr runtime with anything is problematic.

 

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It will be interesting to see if Aladdin gets pushed out of top 10 dom.

 

AEG, CAPM, TLK, TS4, FRZ2, SW9 push it to #7

FFH pushes it to #8

 

4 more movies could make play with varying chances of success:

IT2 could surprise and beat IT1 and Aladdin.

JUM3 could drop from JUM2 by 15-16% and make it to 340-345.

Joker and H&S are 200+ imo. But Aladdin itself proves that anything can happen. GA reception is king. Joker could be a megahit R-rated CBM like Deadpool. H&S could take advantage of an end of summer low competition playground.

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Nothing to be sad if Aladdin misses top10. It would mean there are more than 10 films over 300M DOM. That would be a great record!

 

2016 had 9 movies over 300M

 

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Posted (edited)
23 minutes ago, a2k said:

It will be interesting to see if Aladdin gets pushed out of top 10 dom.

 

AEG, CAPM, TLK, TS4, FRZ2, SW9 push it to #7

FFH pushes it to #8

 

4 more movies could make play with varying chances of success:

IT2 could surprise and beat IT1 and Aladdin.

JUM3 could drop from JUM2 by 15-16% and make it to 340-345.

Joker and H&S are 200+ imo. But Aladdin itself proves that anything can happen. GA reception is king. Joker could be a megahit R-rated CBM like Deadpool. H&S could take advantage of an end of summer low competition playground.

Aladdin will be at #8 for the year most likely. For it to be out of the top 10, ALL of Jumanji (if it is released on time), It2, Hobbs& Shaw and/or Joker will have to make over $310 million. Not going to happen. MAYBE one of those will.

It will be 1-EG, 2-TLK, 3-TROS, 4-Fr2, 5-TS4, 6-CMar, 7-SMFFH, 8-Alad, and 9 and 10 will go to two of the ones I mentioned.(should have been SLOP2).

 

Jumanji3 will probably drop at least 30% from J: WTTJ. Probably more. It2 will probably drop from the first one. Joker seems niche/artsy but could make a little over $200 million. The FF franchise has been on a downswing since FF7 and thus Hobbs & Shaw will not hit $300 million. 

Edited by jedijake
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4 hours ago, stripe said:

 

It's kind of amazing that the two top movies will gross almost the same and then there is a huge gap of 600M to find top3

What's even weirder is they took two completely different paths they took to get there. Endgame is the second half of a very steep S curve, while Avatar is an astonishing barely-curved line in comparison that slowly tapers off.

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Hahahahah, TOTAL Arabian dominance!!

 

Who of YOU would have thought that Aladdin will be not only the top movie for the summer, but also one of the top movies for the whole strong year??!!

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24 minutes ago, jedijake said:

Aladdin will be at #8 for the year most likely. For it to be out of the top 10, ALL of Jumanji (if it is released on time), It2, Hobbs& Shaw and/or Joker will have to make over $310 million. Not going to happen. MAYBE one of those will.

It will be 1-EG, 2-TLK, 3-TROS, 4-Fr2, 5-TS4, 6-CMar, 7-SMFFH, 8-Alad, and 9 and 10 will go to two of the ones I mentioned.(should have been SLOP2).

 

Jumanji3 will probably drop at least 30% from J: WTTJ. Probably more. It2 will probably drop from the first one. Joker seems niche/artsy but could make a little over $200 million. The FF franchise has been on a downswing since FF7 and thus Hobbs & Shaw will not hit $300 million. 

I sort of feel like Joker is going to do Venom type numbers. There are only 5 R-rated movies in history to do over 300M DOM. What's been shown so far it doesn't feel like it has the kind of humor that DP and DP2 had to get over 300. Heck only 8 R-rated movies have ever done over 250M. 

 

I also think as mentioned that It2 will drop from the original. 

Jumanji is a definite wildcard. I could see it as high as 8th or outside the top 10 completely.

Fast 7 looks like an outlier from the rest of the franchise (the only one to do over 250M DOM) and H&S only has parts of the gang, not all of them. So I don't see H&S getting to 300M right now.

 

I also see a good chance of TROS being #2 ahead of TLK. Looking at the 2 previous SW trilogies TLJ dropped almost exactly the same as both ESB and AotC. So it's range for TROS should be in the 650-750 based on previous movies. Having Abrams back in the chair will likely make it more positive for the GA.

 

 

 

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9 minutes ago, shayhiri said:

Hahahahah, TOTAL Arabian dominance!!

 

Who of YOU would have thought that Aladdin will be not only the top movie for the summer, but also one of the top movies for the whole strong year??!!

Man, I wrote the movie off from the awful marketing. From Aladdin and Jasmine wearing more clothes to satisfy worldwide modesty standards, to Will Smith's genie, to the terrible trailers, my expectations were very low. I'll be enjoying it at home at least, seems like everyone is enjoying it. I missed out on The Greatest Showman too. Rarely is the divide between critics and audiences as high as it is with musicals it seems, and IMO the marketing for musicals is still done wrong and they treat them like regular movies.

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I'm interested to see just how the XDP, RM, KOTM shake out on Monday. I expect RM to be ahead of KOTM since it was ahead of it on Sunday and should have a smaller drop. Does XDP drop hard enough for RM to top it Monday actuals? Heck does it drop hard enough that KOTM passes it?

Both XDP and KOTM will have larger % drops Monday than RM will as they were more helped by Father's Day. 

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15 minutes ago, Pure Spirit said:

Man, I wrote the movie off from the awful marketing. From Aladdin and Jasmine wearing more clothes to satisfy worldwide modesty standards, to Will Smith's genie, to the terrible trailers, my expectations were very low. I'll be enjoying it at home at least, seems like everyone is enjoying it. I missed out on The Greatest Showman too. Rarely is the divide between critics and audiences as high as it is with musicals it seems, and IMO the marketing for musicals is still done wrong and they treat them like regular movies.

That is such a wrong judgment i cant see any redemption... is it a bad bandvagon... lack of different perspective... the only thing that could redeem you or anyone else who thought that would be if you expected 35-40% lesser gross.. since even now the effects of its true potential are visible/squandered... too bad .. and sad:/ not that its a great movie(its just ok).. but we could have had 1 more 2019 1b+ earner(still possible, but it could have gone to 1.3b) if people on the internet and press that follows them(vicious positive feedback loop) had better things to do than oblige monday afternoon bore and feelfeels 😕

learn something from this.. gauge yourself by mistakes and those strange feelings that arise when saying something out of place.. those are red flags

 

TTVOMJ

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From this same point Godzilla 2014 made 15 million more. I’m expecting better holds for KotM. Wanting 115-120 domestic total... 5.5 weekend upcoming.

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1 hour ago, Maximum Avery said:

That is such a wrong judgment i cant see any redemption... is it a bad bandvagon... lack of different perspective... the only thing that could redeem you or anyone else who thought that would be if you expected 35-40% lesser gross.. since even now the effects of its true potential are visible/squandered... too bad .. and sad:/ not that its a great movie(its just ok).. but we could have had 1 more 2019 1b+ earner(still possible, but it could have gone to 1.3b) if people on the internet and press that follows them(vicious positive feedback loop) had better things to do than oblige monday afternoon bore and feelfeels 😕

learn something from this.. gauge yourself by mistakes and those strange feelings that arise when saying something out of place.. those are red flags

 

TTVOMJ

Hindsight is 20/20.

 

This movie could have gone either way. Potential for BatB or Cinderella. Everyone should just enjoy the fact it’s going to comfortably cross 300m.

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Posted (edited)
36 minutes ago, Jim Shorts said:

Hindsight is 20/20.

 

This movie could have gone either way. Potential for BatB or Cinderella. Everyone should just enjoy the fact it’s going to comfortably cross 300m.

Oh... but thats the issue.. if you only have hindsight... thats bad... you can have variations.. just not complete misses... i missed mine for aladdin.. but not by that much... my prediction upon news regarding its release were batb+... come 2019 they were 150m 4d and refused to fall below 120m.. hoping for 130m... sometimes its just stubborness/ego or even blindness/out of touch with reality that keeps you from succeeding

 

TTVOMJ

Edited by Maximum Avery
Typos
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