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Toy Story 4 Weekend Thread | Estimates: Small Soldiers 118, Puppet Master 14.1, Prince of Persia 12.2 (-30%), Blues Brothers 2000 10.8 (-64%), Beverly Hills Chihuahua: The Squeakquel 10.3 (-58%)

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Just now, YourMother the Edgelord said:

NOT ALL FILMS ARE THE SAME! TS3 opened nine years ago while Dory and I2 had more relevancy and draw. Not to mention, for I2 it had a weak and starved family slate as well as the CBM craze. TS4 had an uphill battle from TS3 being the perfect ending. A $120M OW for an animated film is excellent. 

Shame on you for talking sense!

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2 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

NOT ALL FILMS ARE THE SAME! TS3 opened nine years ago while Dory and I2 had more relevancy and draw. Not to mention, for I2 it had a weak and starved family slate as well as the CBM craze. TS4 had an uphill battle from TS3 being the perfect ending. A $120M OW for an animated film is excellent. 

I2 has a starved family slate but TS4 has a starved movie slate 

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5 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Think that 42 includes the preview.

Not a chance in hell. That would be a worse multiplier than I2.

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4 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

Pretty sure Charlie always does true Friday.

Eh? Didn't realize that. If so, 54 is huge and locks 150+. Are you sure?

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4 minutes ago, EarlyDeadlinePredictions said:

120-130m would we great opening but I can understand why people would be underwhelmed/disappointed. It would go below Disney's "lowball" estimate. 

 

From BOM

Now the question is whether Toy Story 4 can top even that monster number with some suggesting it could climb as high as $200 million, though Disney is remaining conservative, anticipating an opening around $140+ million from a massive 4,575 locations, the second widest opening ever behind only Avengers: Endgame.

Mojo article was actually BS. Don't know what he was implying? First of all, I hate the fact that they have fixed a template for every article i.e. IMDb page views. I mean WTF and then they hardly follow that. TS4 was lagging behind Dory and I2 but they bring 165mn donno from where.  Atleast follow your own criteria.

 

Then there's one line saying its having record pre-sales. 

 

Also lol forecast for MIBI.

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12 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

The range is pretty wide for estimating from early morning numbers; which are basically pre-sales and morning shows of East coast.

 

The early morning numbers suggest $40-42mn Friday. I will take these with pinch of salt because range for the two comps is pretty big and I am using the median of two, conservatively. There will be more clarity during mid day but don't expect any update, because its no MCU film that I will not sleep for. So next update 8-9 hours from now, unless I gave one in another hour or two or RTH fly by.

So hopefully $135M+

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2 minutes ago, John Marston said:

I2 has a starved family slate but TS4 has a starved movie slate 

Potato, potahto.

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the $40-42 won’t be including the preview. 

 

I’m anticipating an OD around what Dory did, but it’ll hold a little better on Saturday. 

 

$140-145 million is my finger in the air guess, if the Friday number is near $55 million including previews. 

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, John Marston said:

I2 has a starved family slate but TS4 has a starved movie slate 

Endgame did $840M, Aladdin is looking at $325M+, Wick did $150M, and even the underperformers like Pikachu and Pets are still in $140M-$145M range. This summer despite underperformers was more packed than last year not to mention we were considering sub $300M a possibility a few months ago, not all Studios not even Disney should expect monster increases for all of their films.

 

I2’s only worries was IW doing $650M, Solo around $210M, and Deadpool at $325M+. Sure JWFK opens but FFH and TLK are even larger threats.

Edited by YourMother the Edgelord

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TS4 : 96% RT Audience score after 1,390 verified reviews.

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Posted (edited)

This actually beat Endgame's opening day in Argentina

Edited by FlashMaster659
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There's not really any competition right now, any relative underperformance is what I'd attribute to the pains of being the 4th film of a franchise that is perceived more as a trilogy.

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12 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Think that 42 includes the preview.

That's true friday. Don't be that cruel. :hahaha:

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4 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Eh? Didn't realize that. If so, 54 is huge and locks 150+. Are you sure?

$54M would be good but no it does not lock 150 at all. Even if the Saturday drop was 5% and Sunday drop was 15% it would still be in the 140’s.

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Mojo article was actually BS. Don't know what he was implying? First of all, I hate the fact that they have fixed a template for every article i.e. IMDb page views. I mean WTF and then they hardly follow that. TS4 was lagging behind Dory and I2 but they bring 165mn donno from where.  Atleast follow your own criteria.

 

Then there's one line saying its having record pre-sales. 

 

Also lol forecast for MIBI.

i dont recall  that ts4 was lagging behind dory though, did it ? weekend will be 140-150 you think ?

Edited by john2000

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2 minutes ago, a2k said:

TS4 : 96% RT Audience score after 1,390 verified reviews.

Defying all known medical knowledge, it would seem 4% of all humans do not have a functioning heart.

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Just now, LonePirate said:

Defying all known medical knowledge, it would seem 4% of all humans do not have a functioning heart.

 

The movie’s not that great

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sorry but i want to ask this 12 mill previews is estimated or actual ?

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