Toy Story 4 Weekend Thread | Estimates: Small Soldiers 118, Puppet Master 14.1, Prince of Persia 12.2 (-30%), Blues Brothers 2000 10.8 (-64%), Beverly Hills Chihuahua: The Squeakquel 10.3 (-58%)

[superduperm]

5 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Endgame did $840M, Aladdin is looking at $325M+, Wick did $150M, and even the underperformers like Pikachu and Pets are still in $140M-$145M range. This summer despite underperformers was more packed than last year not to mention we were considering sub $300M a possibility a few months ago, not all Studios not even Disney should expect monster increases for all of their films.

 

I2’s only worries was IW doing $650M, Solo around $210M, and Deadpool at $325M+. Sure JWFK opens but FFH and TLK are even larger threats.

I wouldn’t put any stock whatsoever into what he says dude.

 

He literally claimed that Toy Story 3, the first animated film ever to gross $1 billion, disappointed. That was enough for me to stop taking him seriously lol.

[RealLyre]

11 hours ago, Litio said:

Lol. Based on fandango sales for now, I

see about $12m for TS4 with some comparisons I did. Child's Play $1.5m+, but maybe I'm wrong, let's see final sales.

 

3 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

 

very close, @Litio seems to be nailing the previews almost every time!  

[charlie Jatinder]

1 minute ago, sfran43 said:

 

I am guessing $4mn true Friday from early morning numbers.

[Eric Atreides]

7 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Eh? Didn't realize that. If so, 54 is huge and locks 150+. Are you sure?

When the first early numbers came in for Endgame, Charlie said 90M Friday was happening. Add that number to Endgame's 60M previews, and you got 150M. About 7M off of course, but he did divide this from previews to true Friday.

 

He could be doing something different, but it would be weird of him to suddenly change his reporting with no warning nor clarification to others.

[John Marston]

When a movie makes open under all trade predictions it’s disappointing

 

 

if it had bad reviews that lowered interest and hype then sure but that’s not the case

 

 

hell apparently Disney’s own estimate was 140m 

[filmlover]

I feel like Child's Play would've cleaned up around Halloween but I suppose opening against Toy Story 4 was too good of a gimmick to pass up on. Looking at October's schedule there doesn't seem to be any horror-themed movies opening except The Addams Family and Zombieland 2? And those lean a lot more towards the family and comedy genres respectively. Doctor Sleep would probably do great business that last weekend of the month through Halloween that Thursday.

[TMP]

Just now, filmlover said:

I feel like Child's Play would've cleaned up around Halloween but I suppose opening against Toy Story 4 was too good of a gimmick to pass up on. Looking at October's schedule there doesn't seem to be any horror-themed movies opening except The Addams Family and Zombieland 2? And those lean a lot more towards the family and comedy genres respectively. Doctor Sleep would probably do great business that last weekend of the month through Halloween that Thursday.

Joker could be seen as a horror film? It's definitely dark and morose enough, and the Joaq looks pretty spooky all gaunt like that.

[MrFanaticGuy34]

I have noticed that 7 movies opened over $200M+ OW, and no animated film has gotten there.

 

Are live-action blockbusters only allowed to get there and no animated one? All the other rest are the same, honestly.

[The Panda]

I have returned from my trip to the mountains, and all I have to say is all of you are wack.  Seems like a good preview number to me

[a2k]

Using lower-end of Charlie's early 'am just saying' 40-42 true Friday,

12 + 40 + 42 (+5%) + 31.5 (-25%) = 125.5 ow (52 od)

42 true Fri with same holds gives 131.2 ow

[superduperm]

The more I think about it, the less sense $120M makes.

 

$12M previews is literally second-best ever for an animated film, 30% higher than Finding Dory (which was also an anticipated sequel) yet we’re talking about this having the fourth-highest OW for an animated film. Just doesn’t add up. I feel like true Friday needs to be higher than what people are predicting.

[MagnarTheGreat]

TS4's gonna finish higher than I thought it would 6 months ago, but I never thought it and Frozen 2 and TLK would be equals anyway. Had to figure there was going to be an interest gap between them, the question was always how big the gap was going to be. The attention was always bigger on Frozen 2's trailer views in terms of media writeups anyway, I don't even recall the stats on TS4's.

[RealLyre]

Just now, a2k said:

Using lower-end of Charlie's early 'am just saying' 40-42 true Friday,

12 + 40 + 42 (+5%) + 31.5 (-25%) = 125.5 ow (52 od)

42 true Fri with same holds gives 131.2 ow

kinda harsh Sunday drop no? I2 dropped 10% and Dory dropped 24%. 

[superduperm]

3 minutes ago, a2k said:

Using lower-end of Charlie's early 'am just saying' 40-42 true Friday,

12 + 40 + 42 (+5%) + 31.5 (-25%) = 125.5 ow (52 od)

42 true Fri with same holds gives 131.2 ow

Sunday hold will be better than 25% IMO. It’s late-June.

[JohnnyGossamer]

Wait, what? If the Friday number with previews is going to be something like 54 what in the hell are people worried about? It's Saturday will likely come close matching that 54. It'll easily gross 135+.

[a2k]

3 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

kinda harsh Sunday drop no? I2 dropped 10% and Dory dropped 24%. 

I2 had Father's Day.

-25% I used is very close to Dory's -24%, but yeah can see closer to -20%.

[Krissykins]

 

10 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

I am guessing $4mn true Friday from early morning numbers.

So a possible $5.65m Friday for Childs Play. 

 

Hopefully it picks up at night time. 

 

But looks like both openers are missing industry expectations this weekend. 

[FlashMaster659]

5 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Wait, what? If the Friday number with previews is going to be something like 54 what in the hell are people worried about? It's Saturday will likely come close matching that 54. It'll easily gross 135+.

With the exception of I2, don't big animated openers usually stay flat on Saturday from true Friday?

[Ledmonkey96]

5 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Wait, what? If the Friday number with previews is going to be something like 54 what in the hell are people worried about? It's Saturday will likely come close matching that 54. It'll easily gross 135+.

So 108mil through Saturday? It'd need to drop 50% sunday to match 135mil. 145~ seems pretty easy still.

[superduperm]

5 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Wait, what? If the Friday number with previews is going to be something like 54 what in the hell are people worried about? It's Saturday will likely come close matching that 54. It'll easily gross 135+.

I think you’re being too optimistic about Saturday’s number.

 

This isn’t an original animated film during the school year. This is an anticipated animated sequel in late-June. Saturday is going to drop at least 15% from full opening day like Finding Dory and I2 did.