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Toy Story 4 Weekend Thread | Estimates: Small Soldiers 118, Puppet Master 14.1, Prince of Persia 12.2 (-30%), Blues Brothers 2000 10.8 (-64%), Beverly Hills Chihuahua: The Squeakquel 10.3 (-58%)

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1 minute ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Just for fun; If TS4 follow Dory Friday trend from previews, we will have

12

59.5

59.5

45

 

176

 

The higher limit of our tracking thread; $14mn gives

 

14

69

69

53

 

205

On that note, what are your thoughts on the Finding Dory multiplier? Could it apply here?

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Incredibles 2 (18.5M Thursday Preview) * 9.88 = $182.7M June Opening Weekend
Finding Dory (9.2M Thursday Preview) * 14.68 = $135.1M June Opening Weekend
If Toy Story 4 (~12M Thursday Preview) * 9.88 = $118.6M June Opening Weekend
If Toy Story 4 (~12M Thursday Preview) * 14.68 = $176.2M June Opening Weekend

 

wide range of opening scenarios * June Pixar dormant franchise sequel multipliers:

 

If Toy Story 4 performs like…  
First
Weekend
3.00 3.26 (Monsters University) 3.33 (Incredibles 2) 3.60 (Finding Dory) 3.76 (Toy Story 3) 4.00
$50.0M $150.0M $163.0M $166.5M $180.0M $188.0M $200.0M
$60.0M $180.0M $195.6M $199.8M $216.0M $225.6M $240.0M
$70.0M $210.0M $228.2M $233.1M $252.0M $263.2M $280.0M
$80.0M $240.0M $260.8M $266.4M $288.0M $300.8M $320.0M
$90.0M $270.0M $293.4M $299.7M $324.0M $338.4M $360.0M
$100.0M $300.0M $326.0M $333.0M $360.0M $376.0M $400.0M
$110.0M $330.0M $358.6M $366.3M $396.0M $413.6M $440.0M
$120.0M $360.0M $391.2M $399.6M $432.0M $451.2M $480.0M
$130.0M $390.0M $423.8M $432.9M $468.0M $488.8M $520.0M
$140.0M $420.0M $456.4M $466.2M $504.0M $526.4M $560.0M
$150.0M $450.0M $489.0M $499.5M $540.0M $564.0M $600.0M
$160.0M $480.0M $521.6M $532.8M $576.0M $601.6M $640.0M
$170.0M $510.0M $554.2M $566.1M $612.0M $639.2M $680.0M
$180.0M $540.0M $586.8M $599.4M $648.0M $676.8M $720.0M
$190.0M $570.0M $619.4M $632.7M $684.0M $714.4M $760.0M
$200.0M $600.0M $652.0M $666.0M $720.0M $752.0M $800.0M
$210.0M $630.0M $684.6M $699.3M $756.0M $789.6M $840.0M
$220.0M $660.0M $717.2M $732.6M $792.0M $827.2M $880.0M
$230.0M $690.0M $749.8M $765.9M $828.0M $864.8M $920.0M
$240.0M $720.0M $782.4M $799.2M $864.0M $902.4M $960.0M
$250.0M $750.0M $815.0M $832.5M $900.0M $940.0M $1000.0M

 

unadjusted wide sequel openings close to these highlighted in bold above:

 

Disney Pixar Movie Opening % change Dom. Total % change Annual
Ticket
Price %
Change
Monsters, Inc. (2001) $62.6M   $255.9M    
Monsters University (2013) $82.4M 31.7% $268.5M 4.9% 43.9%
Finding Nemo (2003) $70.3M   $339.7M    
Finding Dory (2016) $135.1M 92.3% $486.3M 43.1% 43.5%
The Incredibles (2004) $70.5M   $261.4M    
Incredibles 2 (2018) $182.7M 159.3% $608.6M 132.8% 46.7%
Toy Story 3 (2010) $110.3M   $415.0M    
Toy Story 4 (2019)* TBD TBD TBD TBD ~15.5%
 
* ticket price from 2018 used for 2019 from http://www.natoonline.org/data/ticket-price/
Edited by MagnarTheGreat
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Just now, JB33 said:

On that note, what are your thoughts on the Finding Dory multiplier? Could it apply here?

Why not? May be a bit low. Incredibles 2 acted like a Superhero film IMO. Heck it was more pre-sale loaded than Spiderman: Homecoming.

 

May be not exactly Dory as that was 3 years ago; but perhaps in between two i.e. 16.8% and 25.8% but more close to Dory than I2.

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1 minute ago, MagnarTheGreat said:

Incredibles 2 (18.5M Thursday Preview) * 9.88 = $182.7M June Opening Weekend
Finding Dory (9.2M Thursday Preview) * 14.68 = $136.1M June Opening Weekend
If Toy Story 4 (~12M Thursday Preview) * 9.88 = $118.6M June Opening Weekend
If Toy Story 4 (~12M Thursday Preview) * 14.68 = $176.2M June Opening Weekend

 

wide range of opening scenarios * June Pixar dormant franchise sequel multipliers:

 

If Toy Story 4 performs like…  
First
Weekend
3.00 3.26 (Monsters University) 3.33 (Incredibles 2) 3.60 (Finding Dory) 3.76 (Toy Story 3) 4.00
$50.0M $150.0M $163.0M $166.5M $180.0M $188.0M $200.0M
$60.0M $180.0M $195.6M $199.8M $216.0M $225.6M $240.0M
$70.0M $210.0M $228.2M $233.1M $252.0M $263.2M $280.0M
$80.0M $240.0M $260.8M $266.4M $288.0M $300.8M $320.0M
$90.0M $270.0M $293.4M $299.7M $324.0M $338.4M $360.0M
$100.0M $300.0M $326.0M $333.0M $360.0M $376.0M $400.0M
$110.0M $330.0M $358.6M $366.3M $396.0M $413.6M $440.0M
$120.0M $360.0M $391.2M $399.6M $432.0M $451.2M $480.0M
$130.0M $390.0M $423.8M $432.9M $468.0M $488.8M $520.0M
$140.0M $420.0M $456.4M $466.2M $504.0M $526.4M $560.0M
$150.0M $450.0M $489.0M $499.5M $540.0M $564.0M $600.0M
$160.0M $480.0M $521.6M $532.8M $576.0M $601.6M $640.0M
$170.0M $510.0M $554.2M $566.1M $612.0M $639.2M $680.0M
$180.0M $540.0M $586.8M $599.4M $648.0M $676.8M $720.0M
$190.0M $570.0M $619.4M $632.7M $684.0M $714.4M $760.0M
$200.0M $600.0M $652.0M $666.0M $720.0M $752.0M $800.0M
$210.0M $630.0M $684.6M $699.3M $756.0M $789.6M $840.0M
$220.0M $660.0M $717.2M $732.6M $792.0M $827.2M $880.0M
$230.0M $690.0M $749.8M $765.9M $828.0M $864.8M $920.0M
$240.0M $720.0M $782.4M $799.2M $864.0M $902.4M $960.0M
$250.0M $750.0M $815.0M $832.5M $900.0M $940.0M $1000.0M

 

unadjusted wide sequel openings close to these highlighted in bold above:

 

Disney Pixar Movie Opening % change Dom. Total % change Annual
Ticket
Price %
Change
Monsters, Inc. (2001) $62.6M   $255.9M    
Monsters University (2013) $82.4M 31.7% $268.5M 4.9% 43.9%
Finding Nemo (2003) $70.3M   $339.7M    
Finding Dory (2016) $135.1M 92.3% $486.3M 43.1% 43.5%
The Incredibles (2004) $70.5M   $261.4M    
Incredibles 2 (2018) $182.7M 159.3% $608.6M 132.8% 46.7%
Toy Story 3 (2010) $110.3M   $415.0M    
Toy Story 4 (2019)* TBD TBD TBD TBD ~15.5%
 
* ticket price from 2018 used for 2019 from http://www.natoonline.org/data/ticket-price/

Thanks for this. I'm thinking the multiplier for Toy Story 4 will fall right in between Incredibles 2 and Finding Dory, which would be 12.28. Between 12 and 13 in a more broad sense. Again, talking about the multiplier here, not the preview number. Just clarifying because it looks like the preview number and multiplier are going to be roughly the same lol, and everyone here is talking about preview numbers.

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3 minutes ago, Minnale101 said:

After all the flop movies the past weeks, people considering this as disappointing ???? 

  

Lol

 

what a fantastic number for animated movie

 

 

it's not disappointing it's just funny how it's probably doing 50M less than deadline's tracking. it's like EG opening to 240-250 after tracking had it at 300M+

 

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3 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

it's not disappointing it's just funny how it's probably doing 50M less than deadline's tracking. it's like EG opening to 240-250 after tracking had it at 300M+

 

Um maybe read more than the headline next time 

"A $200M opening is not out of the question, and in the wake of Disney pulling out all the stops with exhibition on Avengers: Endgame for an all-time domestic start of $357.1M, why shouldn’t we even question Toy Story 4‘s forecast."

 

 

Edited by Darth Lehnsherr
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3 minutes ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:

Um maybe read more than the headline next time 

"A $200M opening is not out of the question, and in the wake of Disney pulling out all the stops with exhibition on Avengers: Endgame for an all-time domestic start of $357.1M, why shouldn’t we even question Toy Story 4‘s forecast."

  

 

yeah that's what it was tracking for lmfao

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7 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

yeah that's what it was tracking for lmfao

Deadline's latest prediction for TS4 is $160M. In their first ever tracking for TS4, they just said not to rule out $200M. That's what "not out of the question" means. Or maybe you've read some article of them that definitively said that it's really tracking to $200M?

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TS4 was not, ever, at any point, tracking for or even claimed to be tracking for 200M according to any source.       

 

Deadline throwing “200M” into every article about TS4 with a bunch of weasel words was pretty atrocious though.

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1 minute ago, Thanos Legion said:

TS4 was not, ever, at any point, tracking for or even claimed to be tracking for 200M according to any source.       

 

Deadline throwing “200M” into every article about TS4 with a bunch of weasel words was pretty atrocious though.

Yep. Perfect example of clickbait headline journalism and RealLyre bought it hook, line and sinker.

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