Toy Story 4 Weekend Thread | Estimates: Small Soldiers 118, Puppet Master 14.1, Prince of Persia 12.2 (-30%), Blues Brothers 2000 10.8 (-64%), Beverly Hills Chihuahua: The Squeakquel 10.3 (-58%)

[John Marston]

This can’t be happening 

 

 

how can Suicide Squad have a higher opening? 

Edited June 22, 2019 by John Marston
J

[Legion Again]

7 minutes ago, RtheEnd said:

TS4 Fri I had been going with 45m

This is either excellent or atrocious, can’t tell.

[Darth Lehnsherr]

Well guess down to the MCU to save the box office again 

[John Marston]

2 minutes ago, UserHN said:

Says the person who said that below 150 is a flop.

I said that? When?

[MovieMan89]

3 minutes ago, Yandereprime101189 said:

Only BOT can make a 120 million opening sound like a disaster.

100-110 seems more likely with that number. And it's not a disaster at all, but its well below every single tracking metric that was out there for this. All signs pointed to at least 130. Add great reviews and a dead box office this summer that's just begging for something to breakout, and 100-110 for this is pretty damn disappointing. 

Edited June 22, 2019 by MovieMan89

[UserHN]

So I'll just have to settle for 900+ for TS4 instead of a billion.

[superduperm]

2 minutes ago, Yandereprime101189 said:

Only BOT can make a 110-120 million opening sound like a disaster.

Like hell, I wouldn’t be surprised if it falls all the way to $100M at this rate. This is getting ridiculous.

[That One Girl]

.

Edited March 7, 2022 by That One Guy

[superduperm]

Just now, UserHN said:

So I'll just have to settle for 900+ for TS4 instead of a billion.

As the days go by we’re going to have to learn to settle with 800. Then 700...

[UserHN]

1 minute ago, John Marston said:

I said that? When?

Either in Presales thread or in TS4 thread. Don't you remember? Lol

[Yandereprime101189]

Again

 

Only BOT

 

Edited June 22, 2019 by Yandereprime101189

[picores]

Is THAT bad to open around Toy Story 3 OW (unadjusted, i know)?? 

This can make another 400m DOM, nothing wrong with that. Incredibles 2 success is another story, a first sequel to begin with. Expect TS4 to outgross the 3rd one was unrealstic from the beginning. Perfectly fine numbers.

[MrPink]

Just now, That One Guy said:

 

Justice League opened to 93M OW after tracking had it in the 110-120M range and was unanimously claimed as a disaster.  Tracking had this in the 150-200M range and is going to come in at least 30M below the low end of that range.

 

The 200m tracking never made sense to me. 150, sure I guess. 

 

Still not great obviously, but I'm sure Disney won't shed too many tears

[infamous5445]

Endgame has officially ruined summer movie season.

[DisposedData]

5 minutes ago, Yandereprime101189 said:

Only BOT can make a 110-120 million opening sound like a disaster.

Disappointment =/= Disaster

[KP1025]

This has to be one of the biggest downwards adjustments between release tracking/forecasts and weekend actuals. Considering trades yesterday were saying stuff like:

 

Quote

Will 'Toy Story 4' Make a Bid for the Animated Opening Weekend Record?

Given the longevity of the Toy Story franchise, and the immense brand awareness, it would seem reasonable to anticipate a record-breaking performance this weekend, but previous Pixar releases, including Incredibles 2 and Finding Dory, opened over Father's Day weekend, which, as we saw last weekend, helped bolster several of the weekend's films to stronger than usual Sunday performances. So, while we wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see Toy Story 4 out perform our expectations, we're going out with a forecast around $165 million and we'll see how things turn out once the dust settles.

Quote

Disney is keeping its projections relatively conservative at $140 million, which would still rank as the third-highest opening weekend of the year so far behind fellow studio releases “Avengers: Endgame” and “Captain Marvel.” But analysts who spoke to TheWrap said that they expect the sequel to open closer to the $182 million launch earned by “Incredibles 2,” and that “TS4” has a puncher’s chance to become the first animated film to open to more than $200 million.

 

[a2k]

109 ow, 3.3x gives 360 dom. looks like the high-end. i know it's too early to speculate but just saying.

 

still a very profitable number. even with 200 prod budget 4x+ that ww with a very healthy dom number relative to the budget means disney rakes it in.

[Minnale101]

I know they said they were only gonna make original 

 

but hopefully this leaves any doubt in Pixar mind. To really continue making original content movie.

 

no more sequels 

[superduperm]

2 minutes ago, Yandereprime101189 said:

Again

 

Only BOT

 

Watch this fall to a $100M OW and then falls over the next few weeks and people still keep defending it lol.

 

As someone who badly wanted this movie to succeed and thought the $200M projections were moronic, this is not a good opening for TS4. Beating TS3’s OW unadjusted is in danger now and people thought that was an underwhelming opening in 2010.

[Porthos]