Toy Story 4 Weekend Thread | Estimates: Small Soldiers 118, Puppet Master 14.1, Prince of Persia 12.2 (-30%), Blues Brothers 2000 10.8 (-64%), Beverly Hills Chihuahua: The Squeakquel 10.3 (-58%)

[LOGAN'sLuckyRun]

Just now, UserHN said:

We are now sure that Deadline gets their midnight figures from @Litio and @Menor. Lol

That's ridiculous!

 

Those two are far more accurate than Deadline could ever hope to be.

[RealLyre]

10 minutes ago, UserHN said:

Deadline's latest prediction for TS4 is $160M. In their first ever tracking for TS4, they just said not to rule out $200M. That's what "not out of the question" means. Or maybe you've read some article of them that definitively said that it's really tracking to $200M?

Quote

We hear the movie directed by Josh Cooley (who helmed such Pixar shorts such as the Inside Out one Riley’s First Date) could do around $160M in U.S./Canada, and, yes, enormously more (some believing $200M). 

[Legion Again]

1 minute ago, RealLyre said:

That’s not tracking.

[UserHN]

10 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

I don't know if the phrase "Some believing $200M" can be called tracking. That's just like a guess by some people.

[jedijake]

I have no idea if $12 million is good.

I2 had $18 million in previews and made 10.1X that much for its OW. That gives TS4 a $121 million OW.

Aladdin made $7 million in previews and had a 13X giving TS4 $156 million OW.

Finding Dory made $9.2 million in previews for a 14.6X which would give TS4 a $176 million OW.

 

So who knows?  Between a $121 million and $176 million OW would be my guess!

 

[a2k]

3 minutes ago, jedijake said:

I have no idea if $12 million is good.

I2 had $18 million in previews and made 10.1X that much for its OW. That gives TS4 a $121 million OW.

Aladdin made $7 million in previews and had a 13X giving TS4 $156 million OW.

Finding Dory made $9.2 million in previews for a 14.6X which would give TS4 a $176 million OW.

 

So who knows?  Between a $121 million and $176 million OW would be my guess!

 

I2 dropped only 11% on Sunday and still had a lower multiplier probably cause it partly behaved like a CBM. Also the anticipation was sky high because of the gap. TS4 on the other hand is the 3rd sequel. As such could be more backloaded but the worse Sun hold will counter that.

[MCKillswitch123]

3 minutes ago, a2k said:

I2 dropped only 11% on Sunday and still had a lower multiplier probably cause it partly behaved like a CBM. Also the anticipation was sky high because of the gap. TS4 on the other hand is the 3rd sequel. As such could be more backloaded but the worse Sun hold will counter that.

It's a third sequel that also skews wayyyyyyy younger than I2. Dory is a far more apt comparison.

[jedijake]

Well there wouldn't be a reason for any less of a Sunday hold. Not with the amazing reviews and it being summer. But yeah I see that FD took a 25% tumble on Sunday but STILL had a 14.6X from previews. FD also had a 5.9X from previews to total Friday as opposed to I2's 3.9X. So I2's previews may have just been VERY inflated. 

[lorddemaxus]

 

 

 

17 minutes ago, jedijake said:

Aladdin made $7 million in previews and had a 13X giving TS4 $156 million OW.

Aladdin isn't a good comp. Sunday was inflated because of Memorial day the day after. Would have been around 12x if it was a normal Sunday.

[Bagatelle31]

29 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Aladdin isn't a good comp. Sunday was inflated because of Memorial day the day after. Would have been around 12x if it was a normal Sunday.

even il you lower the weekend at $86,5M that's still $148M

[a2k]

42 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

It's a third sequel that also skews wayyyyyyy younger than I2. Dory is a far more apt comparison.

yeah i agree with that. if not 14.6x, simply because over 3 years previews continue to grow heavier, can definitely see 12-13x, well ahead of I2's 9.8x. earlier thought 10-11x would be difficult but that seems conservative in hindsight.

Edited June 21, 2019 by a2k

[Krissykins]

2 hours ago, UserHN said:

To be fair, except for JW3 and Aladdin, all numbers for openers this summer were all horrendous.

Eh, Ma and Rocketman did not have “horrendous” opening weekends. The Intruder and The Hustle also opened fine. So did Pikachu. 

[UserHN]

4 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Eh, Ma and Rocketman did not have “horrendous” opening weekends. The Intruder and The Hustle also opened fine. So did Pikachu. 

Well, I used the wrong adjective. But this has been a summer of underperformances and flops, save for a few movies. It's so refreshing to have $100M+ openings again this week and the coming weeks.

[jedijake]

My mind is bogging out with all of the "12" and "I2" talk in the same sentences.

[Taruseth]

You all should be happy about Toy Story 4 opening in Germany it will open at the end of August which means that Aladdin will be #1 again for the fifth time🤣 

[UserHN]

12 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

You all should be happy about Toy Story 4 opening in Germany it will open at the end of August which means that Aladdin will be #1 again for the fifth time🤣 

I think I've read someone posts here in BOT that TS isn't that big in Germany. Is it true?

Edited June 21, 2019 by UserHN

[Boxofficerules]

Nothing For Child’s Play?

[lorddemaxus]

2 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:

Nothing For Child’s Play?

Probably too low for Deadline to care.

[a2k]

4 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:

Nothing For Child’s Play?

 

1 minute ago, lorddemaxus said:

Probably too low for Deadline to care.

or that our buzz and tracking thread didn't have any guesses for Child's Play. 

[UserHN]

11 minutes ago, a2k said:

 

or that our buzz and tracking thread didn't have any guesses for Child's Play. 

Litio had CP at $1.5M.