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Toy Story 4 Weekend Thread | Estimates: Small Soldiers 118, Puppet Master 14.1, Prince of Persia 12.2 (-30%), Blues Brothers 2000 10.8 (-64%), Beverly Hills Chihuahua: The Squeakquel 10.3 (-58%)

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Just now, UserHN said:

I'm now lowering my TLK expectations from $1.5B to $1.2B. Seems like this summer is ruthless. I blame EG for absorbing most people's summer movie budget. Lol

It should make $3 total in a good world but iwte live in the bad place

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6 minutes ago, UserHN said:

Yes. Although I don't think it will miss $100M.

To miss 100 it would have to drop from true Fri (33m) on Sat. Dory stayed flat and so a tiny drop can't be ruled out on paper but Sats have gotten stronger (probably cause Thu previews have lightened true Fri) and it should increase from true Fri even marginally. Expecting 5% bump if not more from 33m.

 

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1 minute ago, Minnale101 said:

Honestly I think it might be Aladdin doing the damage for toy story 4

 

aladdin is over performing like crazy. I had it under 200 million domestic 

 

its gonna do 325 million.

Oh, I think that's the biggest factor, especially since it's directly in the family film bracket.  Sucking out 100m+ more than some expected is gonna leave a mark.

 

Which, BTW, is kinda bad news for TLK since it will be coming off the heels of an Aladdin/TS4 one-two punch.  FFH as well as that sounds more along a family axis than an epic axis like Endgame.

 

Still, getting back to Endgame just saying we can't completely discount EG as it still did a lot of damage in May.

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1 minute ago, Blankments said:

It should make $3 total in a good world but iwte live in the bad place

It'll probably get mediocre reviews, if it's any consolation, unless the Favs is doing something more than a shot-for-shot remake (doubt).

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Top 10 Domestic Movies Unadjusted Box Office
(releases in first (a) and second (b) separate halves of year 2014-2019)
Rank 2014a 2015a 2016a 2017a 2018a 2019a*
1st $259.8M $652.3M $486.3M $504.0M $700.1M $832.6M
2nd $257.8M $459.0M $408.1M $412.6M $678.8M $426.7M
3rd $245.4M $356.5M $364.0M $389.8M $608.6M $275.3M
4th $241.4M $353.0M $363.1M $264.6M $417.7M $175.0M
5th $233.9M $201.2M $341.3M $226.3M $318.5M $160.8M
6th $202.9M $184.3M $330.4M $226.0M $213.8M $152.0M
7th $200.7M $177.4M $155.4M $176.0M $188.0M $141.7M
8th $191.7M $166.2M $143.5M $175.8M $140.2M $139.8M
9th $177.0M $163.0M $127.4M $175.0M $137.7M $114.1M
10th $150.9M $155.2M $107.5M $172.6M $115.3M $111.0M
Total $2.161B $2.868B $2.827B $2.723B $3.519B $2.529B
Average $216.1M $286.8M $282.7M $272.3M $351.9M $252.9M
Median $218.4M $192.7M $335.8M $226.1M $266.1M $156.4M
Rank 2014b 2015b 2016b 2017b 2018b 2019b*
1st $350.1M $936.7M $532.2M $620.2M $335.1M TBD
2nd $337.1M $336.0M $368.4M $404.5M $270.6M TBD
3rd $333.2M $281.7M $325.1M $334.2M $220.2M TBD
4th $255.1M $228.4M $270.4M $327.5M $216.6M TBD
5th $222.5M $200.1M $248.8M $315.1M $216.4M TBD
6th $208.5M $195.0M $234.0M $229.0M $215.3M TBD
7th $191.2M $183.6M $232.6M $209.7M $213.5M TBD
8th $188.0M $180.2M $169.6M $188.0M $201.1M TBD
9th $167.8M $169.7M $162.4M $174.3M $190.2M TBD
10th $128.0M $161.2M $158.8M $146.9M $174.5M TBD
Total $2.382B $2.873B $2.702B $2.949B $2.254B TBD
Average $238.2M $287.3M $270.2M $294.9M $225.4M TBD
Median $215.5M $197.6M $241.4M $272.0M $215.9M TBD
 
* 2019 results not final

 

If anybody's wondering how Toy Story 4 will affect the stats, it'll make 2019 on par with 2017 if not also 2016/2015 in the total and average, but the median will remain lower due to how top heavy the first half of the year is.

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So far this year, I don't think anything is going to top my at first indifference of Pikachu underperforming that eventually turned into  . . .. wait a second, this should have made way more, what the hell. And I didn't even like Pokemon.

 

 

That was an outright disappointment. Godzilla was a bigger disappointment (though I blame that on the overhype). But Toy Story 4 ending up with anywhere from a 110 million to 130 (depends how the week goes), don't even fall close to what I'd consider disappointment.

Edited by Yandereprime101189
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10 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

If TS4 misses 100 can we officially call the 200 reports from Deadline their biggest fuck up of all the times? 

HS-345832_R-90a6a0f.jpg?quality=90&resiz

 

I'm Off The Hook, Baby! :Gaga:

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3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Oh, I think that's the biggest factor, especially since it's directly in the family film bracket.  Sucking out 100m+ more than some expected is gonna leave a mark.

 

Which, BTW, is kinda bad news for TLK since it will be coming off the heels of an Aladdin/TS4 one-two punch.  FFH as well as that sounds more along a family axis than an epic axis like Endgame.

 

Still, getting back to Endgame just saying we can't completely discount EG as it still did a lot of damage in May.

Are you the one who made the "Disney 5 x 500" club? Time to bury it now 😆

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@SteveJaros WOZ RIGHT!!!!!!!!! :ohmygod:


 

Spoiler

 

About too many Disney tentpoles at once, that is.

Spoiler

Still don't know what the legs will be like, of course. So consider this post in jest.

Spoiler

Mostly. :ph34r:

Spoiler

 

And, yes, I'm sure Disney is crying up a storm about this. ;)

 

*cue Woody Harrelson crying into money gif*

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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1 minute ago, That One Guy said:

 

Maybe I'm just tired of seeing the market be dominated by franchise fare for so long that I'll take what I can get 🤷

 

As long as the franchise in your avatar succeeds. 🙏

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2 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

Maybe I'm just tired of seeing the market be dominated by franchise fare for so long that I'll take what I can get 🤷

If you think about it, we’re all franchises. What are children if not sequels to their parents?

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I'll say this... purely anecdotal, but I remember being 11 and Toy Story 3 felt like the movie event of the summer. I remember my dad buying tickets well in advance, since it felt like the culmination of that saga.

Toy Story 4 feels like... it's a movie. I'm sure it's great, I probably won't see it until streaming, but most people I know either didn't know it was coming out or seemed pretty apathetic. Granted, I almost never talk about movies with my friends unless it's some big zeitgeist hit (Avengers, IT Chapter 1, Incredibles 2), but this movie never felt like it had that zeitgeist-y moment like Toy Story 3 did.

Then again, I was on the sub-$300m domestic train for a long-ass time, so maybe I'm not the best judge for this.

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