Toy Story 4 Weekend Thread | Estimates: Small Soldiers 118, Puppet Master 14.1, Prince of Persia 12.2 (-30%), Blues Brothers 2000 10.8 (-64%), Beverly Hills Chihuahua: The Squeakquel 10.3 (-58%)

[a2k]

35 minutes ago, picores said:

Neither 109 OW or 360 DOM looks like a high end atm, i think

i will agree it's not the high-end actually, but it's close to that.

ts3 did 3.77x multi way back with similar reception let's say, so in today's times it will be tough for it's sequel to cross 3.4x imo.

can see 385 on the high-end but 360 is optimistic too right now (109*3.3)

[TMP]

Just now, a2k said:

i will agree it's not the high-end actually, but it's close to that.

ts3 did 3.77x multi way back with similar reception let's say, so in today's times it will be tough for it's sequel to cross 3.4x imo.

can see 385 on the high-end but 360 is optimistic too right now (109*3.3)

What's the low-end lookin like?

[cannastop]

7 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

Maybe I'm just tired of seeing the market be dominated by franchise fare for so long that I'll take what I can get 🤷

I don't think Toy Story 4 making $350 dom rather than $450 dom helps anyone.

[RealLyre]

how low does the OW need to be for a sub 250M dom total to be possible? 

[keysersoze123]

55 minutes ago, RtheEnd said:

TS4 Fri I had been going with 45m

Horrible. multi with respect to previews. I am ok with weekend number anyway.

[That One Girl]

.

Edited March 7, 2022 by That One Guy

[Legion Again]

The “yearly top 3 DOM+WW is all MCU” dream is now real. Would happen for a brief couple days in late July before TLK breaks it up.  

 

Edit: @Charlie Jatinder

Edited June 22, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[MikeQ]

Well, I was definitely wrong about Toy Story 4 following closer to Finding Dory than Incredibles 2 over the weekend. If RTH's 45M for Friday pans out, it will have about the same percentage of its Friday from previews as Incredibles 2.

 

Incredibles 2 did have a solid ~12% increase on Saturday from True Friday, as compared to Finding Dory and Toy Story 3 (Pixar's other $100+ million openers), both of which stayed flat on Saturday. One can hope that Toy Story 4 will also have a decent Saturday increase.

 

Regardless, while expectations had the film opening higher, you can't scoff at the fourth instalment in a franchise making over $100M opening weekend, especially one that has long been regarded as "unnecessary". 

 

Looking at the Summer Game preseason predictions from April gives me some context, as most predictions for opening weekend fell between $90-125M, with the average prediction being $113M. It wasn't until recently, it seems, with pre-sales and excellent reviews that expectations went up (which is totally understandable, as my expectations rose too).

 

Peace,

Mike

 

 

 

 

[a2k]

10 minutes ago, jedijake said:

If TS4 follows 

Incred2-->$114.7 m OW (2.55X OD)

FD-->$111.1 m OW (2.47X OD)

TS3-->$120.6 m OW (2.68 OD)

MU-->$121 m OW (2.70X OD)

 

Certainly something will shift. These numbers don't seem at all reasonable.

You haven't separated previews and true Friday. Mirroring Dory after previews gives,

12

33

33

25.1 (-24%)

= 103.1  (Though I feel TS4 will go higher than this.)

 

Incredibles2 had 11% Sun drop due to Father's Day.

TS3 and MU were in a different previews era and will give worse numbers than Dory comparison.

 

 

[a2k]

2 minutes ago, MikeQ said:

Well, I was definitely wrong about Toy Story 4 following closer to Finding Dory than Incredibles 2 over the weekend. If RTH's 45M for Friday pans out, it will have about the same percentage of its Friday from previews as Incredibles 2.

 

Incredibles 2 did have a solid ~12% increase on Saturday from True Friday, as compared to Finding Dory and Toy Story 3 (Pixar's other $100+ million openers), both of which stayed flat on Saturday. One can hope that Toy Story 4 will also have a decent Saturday increase.

 

Regardless, while expectations had the film opening higher, you can't scoff at the fourth instalment in a franchise making over $100M opening weekend, especially one that has long been regarded as "unnecessary". 

 

Looking at the Summer Game preseason predictions from April gives me some context, as most predictions for opening weekend fell between $90-125M, with the average prediction being $113M. It wasn't until recently, it seems, with pre-sales and excellent reviews that expectations went up (which is totally understandable, as my expectations rose too).

 

Peace,

Mike

 

 

 

 

Recommend-worthy post. 👏

[jedijake]

To think that the one movie nearly everyone (including its own studio) was ready to write off as a failure is the one movie stealing the thunder from everything else (through June at least).

[danhtruong5]

Aladdin: 3.3 (+35%/-31%)

MIBi: 3.25 (+54.85%/-----)

SLoP 2: 3.25 (+8%/-53.1%)

RM: 1.7 (+56%/-27.2%)

Godzilla 1.025 (+31.5%/-54%)

JW3 1.1 (+80%/-23.6%)

A:EG: 0.55 (+45%/-33.8%)

[BK007]

If this fails to beat Toy Story 3...it would've been expected by most people before reviews dropped. 

 

Personally, I really liked the movie - and I hated it existing when it was announced. But I have no qualms with saying that quite a lot of people would've asked why this movie needed to exist after TS3's ending. That was a 'perfect' ending if there could ever be one, so this movie's existence was already an uphill task. 

 

It's not particularly easy to claim which movies would fit in the casual moviegoer's idea of necessary or unnecessary, but sometimes it's easier than others. Dark Phoenix is a prime example. For all the hating on it, it was Apocalypse that destroyed the franchise. From the first trailer it reeked off continuation for the sake of it, and as evidenced many who enjoyed DOFP didn't show up. Perhaps many others like me also didn't realize that they were making another sequel after it- how bad do you have to be at reading the room when people don't even realize you're making a sequel? 

 

On the flip side, I predicted SLOP2 to retain most of its audience simply because Despicable Me and Hotel Transylvania both did. The latter especially, I haven't a clue as to why it has held up. But in the end, audiences deserted SLOP2. Was it necessary? No, but HT2 and then HT3 did really well. 

[a2k]

3 minutes ago, danhtruong5 said:

Aladdin: 3.3 (+35%/-31%)

MIBi: 3.25 (+54.85%/-----)

SLoP 2: 3.25 (+8%/-53.1%)

RM: 1.7 (+56%/-27.2%)

Godzilla 1.025 (+31.5%/-54%)

JW3 1.1 (+80%/-23.6%)

A:EG: 0.55 (+45%/-33.8%)

eh, KOTM will miss 4m weekend with that.

1.025

1.6 (+56%)

1.2 (-23%)

= 3.825

 

Hoping Fri creeps up

[Brinatico]

If you think TS4 box office OW is making headaches on the Disney fans, wait when LK open next month. 

[Jim Shorts]

So the $500m Disney club is looking pretty bad right now...

[Hades]

5 minutes ago, Brinatico said:

If you think TS4 box office OW is making headaches on the Disney fans, wait when LK open next month. 

Flop Story 4 is a Pointless cash in sequel....while "Live action'' Lion King is a Pointless cash in remake....

[cannastop]

12 minutes ago, Brinatico said:

If you think TS4 box office OW is making headaches on the Disney fans, wait when LK open next month. 

lol

[cannastop]

8 minutes ago, Jim Shorts said:

So the $500m Disney club is looking pretty bad right now...

Zootopia and Frozen legs!

[charlie Jatinder]

I don't think it will go as low as 45. Perhaps 47-48.