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Toy Story 4 Weekend Thread | Estimates: Small Soldiers 118, Puppet Master 14.1, Prince of Persia 12.2 (-30%), Blues Brothers 2000 10.8 (-64%), Beverly Hills Chihuahua: The Squeakquel 10.3 (-58%)

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31 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

it's sad they weren't as original as Venom 

Weird flex but ok.. yes it’s a standalone film, it didn’t need to tie itself to any other films to be successful.

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23 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

With a 226 mil WW OW (will probably go down) and likely weaker legs than Aladdin, I don't see that happening. I'm expecting around 950 mil WW.

Semi-staggered release. It did not open in some major markets yet like Japan.

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18 hours ago, Krissykins said:

BOM predicted $165m. 

BO predicted $149m. 

Variety said $140m+ 

THR said “is pegged to debut in the $150-200m range” yesterday (20th June) 

Yeh Deadline said “could do $200m” a week or two ago, but these predictions from everyone else were just yesterday.

 

Disney were being conservative at $140m, apparently. So yeh looks like it’s underperforming, opening weekend anyway.   

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Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, UserHN said:

Semi-staggered release. It did not open in some major markets yet like Japan.

Yeah, 950 mil including all of that. I'm predicting around 770 mil without those major markets.

 

Plus it already released in two of TS3's major OS markets (Mexico and UK).

Edited by lorddemaxus

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27 minutes ago, Geo1500 said:

 

It was just an example and I wanted to point out that even a poor OW will not hurt TLK

I know, which is why I said it wasn't necessarily directed at you. Honestly, in this starved for hits summer even a mediocre Lion King could probably pull off $1.5 billion. But a really good one that blows up worldwide could become only the 6th movie to break the 2 Billy barrier. Only 4 movies (Return of the King, Dead Man's Chest, The Dark Knight and Avatar) made it past 1 Billy a decade ago, and only 1 (Titanic) the decade before. This decade already has its 4 movies over 2 Billy (which I guess is the new 1 Billy) in The Force Awakens, Infinity War, Endgame and Titanic, but one could argue over that final one (made it over 2 this decade but actually came out back in 1997) so The Lion King could become the actual 4th title released this decade. And because it's The Lion King you could call it poetic justice as it would complete the circle of box office.

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I mean, those are huge numbers in a vacuum, but no way it's not seen as a slight disappointment.

When Dory came out and then I2, I think their numbers reinforced the idea that TS3 maybe left a lot on the table for whatever reason, but if TS4 barely outdoes that... maybe it's just the ceiling for the franchise. Maybe the older fans that grew up with the series like it but don't love it and aren't as starved for more sequels as they were with Dory and I2 (being the first sequel each probably helped in that respect).

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4 hours ago, John Marston said:

Toy Story 4 underperforms but a shot for shot remake of Lion King will likely explode and make over 600m. Studios will learn a great lesson!

Making less sequels? ;)

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Why would anyone hope for TLK to do well? 

 

Probably the most unoriginal and cash grab film of the summer. 

 

Hopefully it disappoints. 

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3 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

I mean, those are huge numbers in a vacuum, but no way it's not seen as a slight disappointment.

When Dory came out and then I2, I think their numbers reinforced the idea that TS3 maybe left a lot on the table for whatever reason, but if TS4 barely outdoes that... maybe it's just the ceiling for the franchise. Maybe the older fans that grew up with the series like it but don't love it and aren't as starved for more sequels as they were with Dory and I2 (being the first sequel each probably helped in that respect).

Anyone predicting huge numbers hasn't been paying attention.

 

TS3 dropped in admissions vs TS2. No one asked for TS4. This was always gonna drop. 

 

 

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Whoa. It could open lower than TS3. That only had a 41m Friday, but it also had considerably lower previews, at 4m. So it went 4/37/37/32, for the 110m total.

 

TS3's flat Saturday might seem odd, but IIRC a lot of Pixar films get that. Finding Dory did 9/45/45/35 (and change). I can't remember the preview numbers for Inside Out or Monsters University, but with a 34/30 and 30/28 F/Sa, it's likely that they were close once the previews were taken out.

 

Incredibles 2 actually did see a Saturday bump though: 18/53/59/52.

 

FD and I2 both had Father's Day boosts for Sunday, though. TS4 won't have that benefit. 

 

12/33/37/28 is 110, basically even with TS3. It's a close race, but probably means a rather large relative drop in final totals.

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4 minutes ago, BK007 said:

Why would anyone hope for TLK to do well? 

 

Probably the most unoriginal and cash grab film of the summer. 

 

Hopefully it disappoints. 

 

I really like the cast, even though I dislike the concept.

 

I wish they'd done an adaptation of the stage version. That would have been sweet to see what funkiness they came up with to translate it to screen.

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NecessaryAntiqueFly-max-1mb.gif

 

Netflix and chill,fam.

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What's the floor for TS4? Look at the profits it will make on 825 WW with such a break-down:

340*0.55 = 187 Dom

30*0.25 = 7.5 Ch

455*0.40 = 182 OS-Ch

 

376.5 on 175-200 prod budget, handily eats into the marketing even.

 

Why the hell wouldn't they make it. And my numbers are conservative by possibly 100

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3 minutes ago, BK007 said:

Anyone predicting huge numbers hasn't been paying attention.

 

TS3 dropped in admissions vs TS2. No one asked for TS4. This was always gonna drop. 

 

 

I’m getting pretty tired of this “TS3 did less than TS2 adjusted!” narrative.

 

TS3 was the first billion dollar animated film ever. TS2 didn’t even gross half a billion. Like come on.

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3 minutes ago, superduperm said:

I’m getting pretty tired of this “TS3 did less than TS2 adjusted!” narrative.

 

TS3 was the first billion dollar animated film ever. TS2 didn’t even gross half a billion. Like come on.

TS3 had killer ERs. It came out 11 years after TS2. 

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3 hours ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

I don't want TLK to bomb but that's a beautiful dream.

It's a nightmare...

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10 minutes ago, BK007 said:

Why would anyone hope for TLK to do well? 

 

Probably the most unoriginal and cash grab film of the summer. 

 

Hopefully it disappoints. 

1. Are you kidding me right now, dude? 🙎🏻‍♀️🤦🏻‍♀️

 

This film has a lot of things going for it:

• Jon Favreau (who’s coming off the critically acclaimed ”The Jungle Book”.

• There’s little to no strong direct competition coming out after TLK.

• Beyoncé might help the box office’s performance if she delivers.

• Also.....the original animated is the biggest hit of the Disney Renaissance...so there’s no way in hell that the live action remake does much lower than Beauty and the Beast’s $504M DOM.

 

2. You mean like you hoped Aladdin would disappoints? I’m sorry, bit the keyword ”hopefully” is and always has been a desperate wishful thinking (which unsurprisingly comes from you). You can’t just expect a hope for TLK’s underperformance when Aladdin just became a crowdpleaser that broke out considering a lot of things that had going against that film.

 

But since you never learn anything and trying desperately to assume your weak arguments might save your ass from being wrong: BK007, once failing at being right with box office predictions for Disney films....always failing at being right with box office predictions for Disney films. Oh and don’t even throw your shitty scolding-ass arguments like you want to expect to be right. I’m not playing that stupid game of yours this time.

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5 hours ago, superduperm said:

Oh goodness if that’s with previews I’m dead 😂

:whosad:

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