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Toy Story 4 Weekend Thread | Estimates: Small Soldiers 118, Puppet Master 14.1, Prince of Persia 12.2 (-30%), Blues Brothers 2000 10.8 (-64%), Beverly Hills Chihuahua: The Squeakquel 10.3 (-58%)

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54 minutes ago, UserHN said:

I think I've read someone posts here in BOT that TS isn't that big in Germany. Is it true?

Yeah, that's true the three TS films did:

TS1: 2622k

TS2: 2854k

TS3: 1591k adm

 

Comps.: Let's ignore Ice Age 2&3 as they were really strong both slightly above 8.7m adm and Finding Nemo (8.8m most successful CGI-animation film ever) and the lion King 11.3m.

But:

Frozen: 4.77m (#11)

Finding Dory: 3.92m

Zoomania: 3.85m

Inside Out: 3.5m

are all stronger.

Germans tend to love movies (only looking at the cgi-animation movies) like Ice Age (#2, #3, #4 and #7)  and the Minions (#5)  and Madagascar (#6 and #9). The others in the Top 10 are Finding Nemo (#1), Ratatouille (#6) and Shrek 2 (#10).

 

And last year Incredibles two finished a bit under 2.2m.

 

I guess TS4 will be happy to reach TS3 final but I wouldn't bet on it.

 

 

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People are ridiculous on here, when did a $130-140 million start become a bad thing? Especially considering two months ago many on here doubted it would even hit $350 million, let alone match Toy Story 3's final domestic total. A $130-140 million start for a Pixar movie, with the rave reviews this is getting pretty much guarantees it will at least get to Toy Story 3's numbers in North America, but most likely will exceed them. With that start I'm pulling a $400-450 million domestic final out of my ass.

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1 hour ago, AlexMA said:

People are ridiculous on here, when did a $130-140 million start become a bad thing? Especially considering two months ago many on here doubted it would even hit $350 million, let alone match Toy Story 3's final domestic total. A $130-140 million start for a Pixar movie, with the rave reviews this is getting pretty much guarantees it will at least get to Toy Story 3's numbers in North America, but most likely will exceed them. With that start I'm pulling a $400-450 million domestic final out of my ass.

After Deadline's ridiculous 200M tracking, people started getting crazy with their predictions, so anything Lower was bound to be disappointing.

 

Similar thing likely to happen to FFH, with people again overestimating 

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I swear to god the performances of Dory and I2 spoiled y’al. Not every Pixar sequel will outgrows the other due to popularity otherwise Dory would’ve beat I2, a $125M-$140M OW is still fucking bonkers for an animated movie.

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In terms of drop off from I2, it's worth remembering how few family films came out in the months preceding I2. I think Paddington 2, Sherlock Gnomes and Peter Rabbit were the only real family films that came out in the first half of2018, and none were that successful, and all came out months before I2. The market was starved. 

 

This year, you have SLOP2 and Aladdin both coming out in the month prior. Plus, there was Lego Movie 2 and HTTYD3 in February. If you are a family with young kids, you've had opportunities to take your kids to the movies this year.

 

 

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The fact that an extremely likely 400m+ DOM total is "disappointing" to some is insanity

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The notion of a Toy Story sequel isn't as impressive anymore seeing as we've had two already while sequels to both Finding Nemo and The Incredibles had a novelty factor to them. 

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We'll need to see the revised preview number to really start extrapolating. Either way, be shocking if this is as frontloaded as I2. Thinking 12.5+ the Thursday preview number is likely. 

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15 minutes ago, Jayhawk said:

The fact that an extremely likely 400m+ DOM total is "disappointing" to some is insanity

Especially when sub $300M was considered months ago.

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Posted (edited)

I’m curious, when has a fourth entry in a franchise opened this high and grossed $400 million? 

 

Recent fourth entries off the tip top of my head that even exist: 

 

Shrek 4

Transformers 4 

Batman (89-97)

Superman

Free Willy

 

Edited by Chaz

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30 minutes ago, Jayhawk said:

The fact that an extremely likely 400m+ DOM total is "disappointing" to some is insanity

Hey some here have to stay on brand

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2 minutes ago, Chaz said:

I’m curious, when has a fourth entry in a franchise opened this high and grossed $400 million? 

Phantom Menace?

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3 minutes ago, Chaz said:

I’m curious, when has a fourth entry in a franchise opened this high and grossed $400 million? 

Endgame?

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3 minutes ago, Chaz said:

I’m curious, when has a fourth entry in a franchise opened this high and grossed $400 million? 

Literally 2 months ago. 

 

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Posted (edited)
33 minutes ago, Jayhawk said:

The fact that an extremely likely 400m+ DOM total is "disappointing" to some is insanity

It's the fault of Deadline for raising the expectations so high. I will be contented with just Dory numbers but based on Menor's Pulse tracking, I think even Dory numbers is off the table. So I'll just be ok with $120M OW. Still hoping for a billion worldwide at least. OS markets don't fail us. Lol

Edited by UserHN

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2 minutes ago, Chaz said:

I’m curious, when has a fourth entry in a franchise opened this high and grossed $400 million? 

Endgame... it was the fourth Avengers movie...

Star wars the Phantom Menace (in a way... opened in a different time so lower OWend but final above 400m)?

 

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So, two examples that aren’t animated movies. Looks like we are in uncharted territory here.

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Phantom Menace was just mentioned. That's a good one.

 

I'll toss Indy 4 in the mix too. Adjusted gross is currently 398M according to boxofficemojo.

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12 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Especially when sub $300M was considered months ago.

People will always expect bigger than the last, which creates disappointment. Especially when the presales gave some hope of bigger numbers. 

 

Given how many sequels this year have been significant letdowns from their predecessor, TS4 at the levels its operating at is a tremendous achievement. What's funny is that adjusted for inflation, the franchise is pretty consistent, and based on the very early numbers that have come in, TS4 will probably end up very similar to the rest of the series (ranging from high 300s to high 400s). That type of consistency in a franchise is impressive in itself. 

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