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Toy Story 4 Weekend Thread | Estimates: Small Soldiers 118, Puppet Master 14.1, Prince of Persia 12.2 (-30%), Blues Brothers 2000 10.8 (-64%), Beverly Hills Chihuahua: The Squeakquel 10.3 (-58%)

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Posted (edited)

Here's another SJ chestnut for your fire:

 

I predict that it will soon become clear that Disney also made a big mistake in signing that Spider-Man deal with Sony.  

 

What did Disney get out of that? The right to put Spider-Man in their MCU movies. Did it help the MCU movies of the past 3-4 years to have Spidey in them? Sure it did. But was it necessary? Would those movies not been smash hits without him? I seriously doubt that.  The MCU was trucking along just fine without Spider-Man. So Disney got a benefit, but not a very big one.

 

Sony, on the other hand, got Marvel to make its Spider movies for them, and that has been YUUUGE. A flagship franchise that had been flagging has been revived in a massive way, with more coming: Two weeks from now, the "Far From Home" movie WILL open to enormous, near $200m DOM OW box office, and will finish north of $500m DOM. And Sony keeps ALL of that loot.

 

Even worse for Disney, by fully integrating the Sony Spider movies into the MCU, they have given these movies the full brand-value of the MCU that Disney (and Paramount, let's not forget!) created. This is worth a few hundred million in box office right there. 

 

And it shocked me to see trailers for FFH that (a) have Sam Jackson's iconic MCU character in them and (b) imply that Spider-Man will be taking over from Iron Man as the kind of leader of the Avengers.

 

Essentially, Disney is telling the public that a SONY property, Spider-Man, is now the head man of the MCU! A huge propaganda victory for Sony. 

 

And even worse *still* for Disney, the success of the new MCU-integrated Spiderman has allowed Sony to branch off and create that new "Spider-verse", which has already paid very nice dividends in the form of Venom and the animated "Into the Spider-verse" films. More of those will be coming, and they directly compete with Disney. 

 

Essentially, Disney has created a Monster in Sony, who is now in position to compete with Disney for Marvel box office dollars. Instead of dominating the MCU, Disney has basically made Sony a nearly-full partner, and will have to share screen-space for years to come with Sony's 2-3 Spider-related movies that they will now churn out each year. 

 

Massive strategic error by Disney, IMO. If there is a way for them to cut that deal they should.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by SteveJaros
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1 hour ago, Menor said:

Saturday looking like 41-43 based on early sales

So a $120M is alive then with those numbers.

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So John Wick's 6th Friday is stronger than Godzilla's 4th or Dark Phoenix's 3rd. That's pretty wild! Imagine 3 years ago being told that a sequel to a modestly budget Keanu Reeves action film would stomp all over the sequels to 2014's Godzilla and an X-Men movie.

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The Deadline guy Alessandro has a serious Disney bias. While Disney is usually conservative with their tracking/predictions, when it comes to Disney Deadline usually way over predicts. Latest examples are Captain Marvel’s opening week, Endgame’s second weekend (predicted 180 million when the numbers for the week did not point to that) and now Toy Story 4. The fact that he is a fanboy for Disney really skews expectations and that is too bad. I know other trades thought TS4 would open at 140-160 too,  but none predicted 200 million. If TS4 made 125 when it was expected to make 140, then I think most would shrug that off as a slight underperformance, but Deadline had to up the ante to 200 million. 

 

It is too bad that a fantastic opening of ~120 million will be seen as a disappointment because of unrealistic expectations. No animated movie had ever reached those heights and a few days of initial presales should not have led anyone to jump the gun. Objectively speaking, there is nothing wrong with this TS4’s opening. Anything over 100M is still great for an animated film. This movie will well surpass that. 

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Must be really painful for Disney if both Aladdin and TS4 both end up with around $950M. So near to a billion yet so far.

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7 minutes ago, UserHN said:

Must be really painful for Disney if both Aladdin and TS4 both end up with around $950M. So near to a billion yet so far.

I think both Aladdin & TS4 could get over $1B WW, if Aladdin’s strong legs still go...and if TS4 gets mass OS-love.

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33 minutes ago, RamblinRed said:

Will be interesting to see how good WOM is for TS4, if it is Aladdin like then I expect it's Saturday and Sunday will end up being better and have really good legs. From other post it sounds like its sales for Saturday are off to a good start. But as always the numbers will show us how good WOM is.

 

WOW for Aladdin. It could pass AWE and be within a 1M of IJ by the end of the weekend for same weekend cumulative numbers Another top 3 finish for it likely. Looks very likely that it will be the highest grossing MD opener ever.

 

SLOP2 held well on Thursday but I wanted to see a Friday number as it could have been just because it lost evening shows and it is a movie that likely skews to earlier shows. It looks like it got walloped by TS4 yesterday. Less than 5% increase. See if it recovers over the weekend at all.

 

That's actually a good jump for MIB. Maybe it won't fade quite as fast as thought. RM looks good to.

 

The jumps for XDP and KOTM do not look good. They look like strong candidates to have their theater counts slashed next week when Yesterday and the AE re-release come out.

 

 

 

 

 

I really can’t see TS4 having a weak Saturday & Sunday. Especially with the WOM it got. 97-98% critic-rating & 96% audience rating on RT. Think they’ll ve strong for a $120M+ OW.

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Posted (edited)
38 minutes ago, SteveJaros said:

Here's another SJ chestnut for your fire:

 

I predict that it will soon become clear that Disney also made a big mistake in signing that Spider-Man deal with Sony.  

 

What did Disney get out of that? The right to put Spider-Man in their MCU movies. Did it help the MCU movies of the past 3-4 years to have Spidey in them? Sure it did. But was it necessary? Would those movies not been smash hits without him? I seriously doubt that.  The MCU was trucking along just fine without Spider-Man. So Disney got a benefit, but not a very big one.

 

Sony, on the other hand, got Marvel to make its Spider movies for them, and that has been YUUUGE. A flagship franchise that had been flagging has been revived in a massive way, with more coming: Two weeks from now, the "Far From Home" movie WILL open to enormous, near $200m DOM OW box office, and will finish north of $500m DOM. And Sony keeps ALL of that loot.

 

Even worse for Disney, by fully integrating the Sony Spider movies into the MCU, they have given these movies the full brand-value of the MCU that Disney (and Paramount, let's not forget!) created. This is worth a few hundred million in box office right there. 

 

And it shocked me to see trailers for FFH that (a) have Sam Jackson's iconic MCU character in them and (b) imply that Spider-Man will be taking over from Iron Man as the kind of leader of the Avengers.

 

Essentially, Disney is telling the public that a SONY property, Spider-Man, is now the head man of the MCU! A huge propaganda victory for Sony. 

 

And even worse *still* for Disney, the success of the new MCU-integrated Spiderman has allowed Sony to branch off and create that new "Spider-verse", which has already paid very nice dividends in the form of Venom and the animated "Into the Spider-verse" films. More of those will be coming, and they directly compete with Disney. 

 

Essentially, Disney has created a Monster in Sony, who is now in position to compete with Disney for Marvel box office dollars. Instead of dominating the MCU, Disney has basically made Sony a nearly-full partner, and will have to share screen-space for years to come with Sony's 2-3 Spider-related movies that they will now churn out each year. 

 

Massive strategic error by Disney, IMO. If there is a way for them to cut that deal they should.

 

 

You are not wrong that Sony has benefitted much more than Disney. However, what do you think Disney has actually lost? I don't recall that after ASM cancellation Sony was looking to sell the rights back to Disney. The wealth of box office dollars that Sony has reaped was never up for grabs. Disney couldn't have had that instead.

SpiderMan is not up for sale. And certainly now he won't be for sale.

 

I agree spider-man has probably not added much to Marvel in terms of BO dollars but it hasn't lost them anything. after all they are not putting up any money.

 

Re your point about Disney building up a competitor, are they actually a competitor? They are a rival studio but the films themselves, are they competing? Is Spiderman FFH competing against Avengers or whatever other MCU film? All these superhero films, MCU and otherwise, for the most part appear to boost each other - the genre as a whole being more popular gives a benefit to all involved.

 

But I do think you're right that positioning Spiderman as a leading Avenger is a bad move. It gives Sony massive bargaining power.

 

But, I'm not a businessman, I have no idea what would be good.

 

I certainly dont think Disney have been negatively impacted by Spider-Man being popular again.

I imagine they get some money from certain merchandise (no idea how that aspect of the deal works)

Edited by Avatree
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10 minutes ago, UserHN said:

Must be really painful for Disney if both Aladdin and TS4 both end up with around $950M. So near to a billion yet so far.

Yeah, I'm sure they'll cry for their two almost Billies into the other two (Captain Marvel and Endgame) and the next three guaranteed Billies they'll get this year (Lion King, Frozen 2 and Skywalker), Imagine being the studio with 7 movies with $900+ million in a single year and actually having a reason to cry about something. Meanwhile almost every other studio has a reason to cry, you know, all the millions they're losing with all these bombs left and right.

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30 minutes ago, SteveJaros said:

Here's another SJ chestnut for your fire:

 

I predict that it will soon become clear that Disney also made a big mistake in signing that Spider-Man deal with Sony.  

 

What did Disney get out of that? The right to put Spider-Man in their MCU movies. Did it help the MCU movies of the past 3-4 years to have Spidey in them? Sure it did. But was it necessary? Would those movies not been smash hits without him? I seriously doubt that.  The MCU was trucking along just fine without Spider-Man. So Disney got a benefit, but not a very big one.

 

Sony, on the other hand, got Marvel to make its Spider movies for them, and that has been YUUUGE. A flagship franchise that had been flagging has been revived in a massive way, with more coming: Two weeks from now, the "Far From Home" movie WILL open to enormous, near $200m DOM OW box office, and will finish north of $500m DOM. And Sony keeps ALL of that loot.

 

Even worse for Disney, by fully integrating the Sony Spider movies into the MCU, they have given these movies the full brand-value of the MCU that Disney (and Paramount, let's not forget!) created. This is worth a few hundred million in box office right there. 

 

And it shocked me to see trailers for FFH that (a) have Sam Jackson's iconic MCU character in them and (b) imply that Spider-Man will be taking over from Iron Man as the kind of leader of the Avengers.

 

Essentially, Disney is telling the public that a SONY property, Spider-Man, is now the head man of the MCU! A huge propaganda victory for Sony. 

 

And even worse *still* for Disney, the success of the new MCU-integrated Spiderman has allowed Sony to branch off and create that new "Spider-verse", which has already paid very nice dividends in the form of Venom and the animated "Into the Spider-verse" films. More of those will be coming, and they directly compete with Disney. 

 

Essentially, Disney has created a Monster in Sony, who is now in position to compete with Disney for Marvel box office dollars. Instead of dominating the MCU, Disney has basically made Sony a nearly-full partner, and will have to share screen-space for years to come with Sony's 2-3 Spider-related movies that they will now churn out each year. 

 

Massive strategic error by Disney, IMO. If there is a way for them to cut that deal they should.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Nah, Spider-Man is doing huge numbers for Disney in merch, great numbers in comicbook sales aswell. Saving Spideys popularity with making good movies, makes Disney a lot more money than they lose in movie dollars.

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5 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

 

 

That's terrific given the last film went straight to DVD.

 

Hope it does well enough here to stay in my local cinema next week as cant afford to go to the cinema until next friday :(

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5 minutes ago, AlexMA said:

Yeah, I'm sure they'll cry for their two almost Billies into the other two (Captain Marvel and Endgame) and the next three guaranteed Billies they'll get this year (Lion King, Frozen 2 and Skywalker), Imagine being the studio with 7 movies with $900+ million in a single year and actually having a reason to cry about something. Meanwhile almost every other studio has a reason to cry, you know, all the millions they're losing with all these bombs left and right.

I didn't say that they will cry over it. What I meant is that kind of figure is so painful to look at. Just like the final gross of TJB. Kinda like when you lost a sports match by just a point. You will keep asking which market went short and would it have touched the billion if the marketing was like this or like that.

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Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, Sindreee said:

Nah, Spider-Man is doing huge numbers for Disney in merch, great numbers in comicbook sales aswell. Saving Spideys popularity with making good movies, makes Disney a lot more money than they lose in movie dollars.

Without sounding snobbish I doubt disney cares about comic book sales.

 

As for merchandise. I would presume that any Far From Home or Homecoming branded merchandise would all go to Sony? And anything Avengers branded would go to Disney? extremely profitable regardless.

 

Edited by Avatree

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5 minutes ago, UserHN said:

I didn't say that they will cry over it. What I meant is that kind of figure is so painful to look at. Just like the final gross of TJB. Kinda like when you lost a sports match by just a point. You will keep asking which market went short and would it have touched the billion if the marketing was like this or like that.

No. Its not like losing a sports match. It's like only winning a sports match by 99 points rather than 100 points.

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Posted (edited)

is the 'billie' talk for Disney's slim 2019 release line some kind of business jargon? 

how deep do you have to go to understand those kinds of investment things and beforehand expectations? 

can you understand physics and calculus and just skip over the business calculus part and anything that has to do with the business calculations and financial stuff?  i'll take gluten with that!

is 1 billion their break even point per picture?

terrible # for Child's Play, how did this get lost with Mark Hamill's voice?

Edited by Slave Animal Rights

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3 minutes ago, Avatree said:

Without sounding snobbish I doubt disney cares about comic book sales.

 

As for merchandise. I would presume that any Far From Home or Homecoming branded merchandise would all go to Sony? And anything Avengers branded would go to Disney? extremely profitable regardless.

 

Disney holds the rights for all Spidey merchandising. If I remember it right, they bought all the merchandising rights back in 2012.

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Just now, UserHN said:

Disney holds the rights for all Spidey merchandising. If I remember it right, they bought all the merchandising rights back in 2012.

Oh wow, I'd forgotten about that. Huh.

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10 minutes ago, Avatree said:

Without sounding snobbish I doubt disney cares about comic book sales.

 

As for merchandise. I would presume that any Far From Home or Homecoming branded merchandise would all go to Sony? And anything Avengers branded would go to Disney? extremely profitable regardless.

 

Marvel earns all merchandise profits and I guess small portion of BO as well. They made something like $50m from SM1 and 2

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55 minutes ago, SteveJaros said:

Here's another SJ chestnut for your fire:

 

I predict that it will soon become clear that Disney also made a big mistake in signing that Spider-Man deal with Sony.  

 

What did Disney get out of that? The right to put Spider-Man in their MCU movies. Did it help the MCU movies of the past 3-4 years to have Spidey in them? Sure it did. But was it necessary? Would those movies not been smash hits without him? I seriously doubt that.  The MCU was trucking along just fine without Spider-Man. So Disney got a benefit, but not a very big one.

 

Sony, on the other hand, got Marvel to make its Spider movies for them, and that has been YUUUGE. A flagship franchise that had been flagging has been revived in a massive way, with more coming: Two weeks from now, the "Far From Home" movie WILL open to enormous, near $200m DOM OW box office, and will finish north of $500m DOM. And Sony keeps ALL of that loot.

 

Even worse for Disney, by fully integrating the Sony Spider movies into the MCU, they have given these movies the full brand-value of the MCU that Disney (and Paramount, let's not forget!) created. This is worth a few hundred million in box office right there. 

 

And it shocked me to see trailers for FFH that (a) have Sam Jackson's iconic MCU character in them and (b) imply that Spider-Man will be taking over from Iron Man as the kind of leader of the Avengers.

 

Essentially, Disney is telling the public that a SONY property, Spider-Man, is now the head man of the MCU! A huge propaganda victory for Sony. 

 

And even worse *still* for Disney, the success of the new MCU-integrated Spiderman has allowed Sony to branch off and create that new "Spider-verse", which has already paid very nice dividends in the form of Venom and the animated "Into the Spider-verse" films. More of those will be coming, and they directly compete with Disney. 

 

Essentially, Disney has created a Monster in Sony, who is now in position to compete with Disney for Marvel box office dollars. Instead of dominating the MCU, Disney has basically made Sony a nearly-full partner, and will have to share screen-space for years to come with Sony's 2-3 Spider-related movies that they will now churn out each year. 

 

Massive strategic error by Disney, IMO. If there is a way for them to cut that deal they should.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Now Far From Home is cursed.

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