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Toy Story 4 Weekend Thread | Estimates: Small Soldiers 118, Puppet Master 14.1, Prince of Persia 12.2 (-30%), Blues Brothers 2000 10.8 (-64%), Beverly Hills Chihuahua: The Squeakquel 10.3 (-58%)

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51 minutes ago, SteveJaros said:

Here's another SJ chestnut for your fire:

 

I predict that it will soon become clear that Disney also made a big mistake in signing that Spider-Man deal with Sony.  

 

What did Disney get out of that? The right to put Spider-Man in their MCU movies. Did it help the MCU movies of the past 3-4 years to have Spidey in them? Sure it did. But was it necessary? Would those movies not been smash hits without him? I seriously doubt that.  The MCU was trucking along just fine without Spider-Man. So Disney got a benefit, but not a very big one.

 

Sony, on the other hand, got Marvel to make its Spider movies for them, and that has been YUUUGE. A flagship franchise that had been flagging has been revived in a massive way, with more coming: Two weeks from now, the "Far From Home" movie WILL open to enormous, near $200m DOM OW box office, and will finish north of $500m DOM. And Sony keeps ALL of that loot.

 

Even worse for Disney, by fully integrating the Sony Spider movies into the MCU, they have given these movies the full brand-value of the MCU that Disney (and Paramount, let's not forget!) created. This is worth a few hundred million in box office right there. 

 

And it shocked me to see trailers for FFH that (a) have Sam Jackson's iconic MCU character in them and (b) imply that Spider-Man will be taking over from Iron Man as the kind of leader of the Avengers.

 

Essentially, Disney is telling the public that a SONY property, Spider-Man, is now the head man of the MCU! A huge propaganda victory for Sony. 

 

And even worse *still* for Disney, the success of the new MCU-integrated Spiderman has allowed Sony to branch off and create that new "Spider-verse", which has already paid very nice dividends in the form of Venom and the animated "Into the Spider-verse" films. More of those will be coming, and they directly compete with Disney. 

 

Essentially, Disney has created a Monster in Sony, who is now in position to compete with Disney for Marvel box office dollars. Instead of dominating the MCU, Disney has basically made Sony a nearly-full partner, and will have to share screen-space for years to come with Sony's 2-3 Spider-related movies that they will now churn out each year. 

 

Massive strategic error by Disney, IMO. If there is a way for them to cut that deal they should.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I’m not sure. Get where you’re coming from but Spidey being under control of Marvel within the MCU means Disney get to control the quality. 

It would be damaging to the overall Marvel brand if it’s flagship character was in mediocre Sony controlled films. 

With him in the MCU it just adds to the overall enthusiasm for the entire package that they’re selling. 

If Far From Home sets up some insane things they’re going to do in Phase 4 then that can only be a good thing for Disney?

 

Sony are riding the riches of the MCU train, sure. But Disney are controlling the conversation to boost their overall product - which Spidey is very much a huge part of. 

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I fail see how Child's Play opening with less than Ma is terrific. 

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44 minutes ago, UserHN said:

Must be really painful for Disney if both Aladdin and TS4 both end up with around $950M. So near to a billion yet so far.

 

If exchange rates were better then it wouldn’t even be an issue. 

 

Example - AEG is at about $115 million in the U.K.  If the exchange was what it was a few years ago then that number would be $150 million’ish. Mad really. 

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Posted (edited)
17 minutes ago, Avatree said:

Without sounding snobbish I doubt disney cares about comic book sales.

 

As for merchandise. I would presume that any Far From Home or Homecoming branded merchandise would all go to Sony? And anything Avengers branded would go to Disney? extremely profitable regardless.

 

No, Disney gets the Spidey merch money. Sony only gets the Box Office and VOD money for Far From Home.

 

It’s one of the big reasons Disney is fine with the deal.  They’re getting massive merch boosts from popular spider-man movies without forking over any of the production costs in making the movies.

Edited by A Panda of Ice and Fire
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16 minutes ago, Avatree said:

Without sounding snobbish I doubt disney cares about comic book sales.

 

As for merchandise. I would presume that any Far From Home or Homecoming branded merchandise would all go to Sony? And anything Avengers branded would go to Disney? extremely profitable regardless.

 

Nah, Sony only have the movie rights to Spidey, Disney own everything else, TV, merch, Comic book etc. So Homecoming, Far From Home, Into The Spiderverse merch money all goes to Disney.

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2 hours ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

I for one would love to see Aladdin breakout even further and hit $350mn. 

 

This weekend could go on to add $13.5mn ($289mn), which will be under 25% drop.

 

Solo did 2.45x after its 5th weekend (overall 1.5x). Aladdin assuming $350mn would be 2.84x after 1st weekend; extrapolating those will give 4.6x for Aladdin after 5th weekend i.e. $62mn.

 

Bingoo.

 

Warning: The above post is just for case of speculation; only after Aladdin did 350, this will be used as bragging rights.

I’ve been very happy with tracking Aladdin this past month and I think it’s getting every penny it deserves.

 

I think credit to the casting and the addition of Speechless are what really making the movie click with audiences.

 

Mena Massoud’s personality and portrayal is spot on, and Naomi Scott’s performance as Jasmine grabs your attention and is literally show-stopping.

 

It’s hard to topple Robin Williams as the Genie, but the fact that Will Smith didn’t completely mess things up (like originally thought) played very well in his favor.

 

I think Beauty & the Beast’s box-office was mostly attributed to the name/brand/nostalgia alone, even though the casting was off and Emma Watson delivered a very forgettable performance in an iconic role that was too big for her.

 

This time Disney got it right and it shows with Disney reaping the box-office reward.

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They are opening a Spiderman ride over at Disneyland Paris, too. I think the ancillary benefits of keeping Spidey popular outweigh other considerations - since as others pointed out Sony wasn't just going to sell them back the character, he's far too valuable. We'll see what happens when Sony and Disney have to come beack to the table to extend the deal.  IIRC it's supposed to run out once they release a third solo Spidey movie, right?

 

I do wonder if Sony would be tempted to pull back in order to be able to mix Spidey with their own fledging shared universe, though.

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Posted (edited)

MRW Toy Story 4 doesn't open with $200m:

LBKM.gif

DEADLINE BETRAYED US!!!

Edited by LOGAN'sLuckyRun

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2 minutes ago, Celedhring said:

They are opening a Spiderman ride over at Disneyland Paris, too. I think the ancillary benefits of keeping Spidey popular outweigh other considerations - since as others pointed out Sony wasn't just going to sell them back the character, he's far too valuable. We'll see what happens when Sony and Disney have to come beack to the table to extend the deal.  IIRC it's supposed to run out once they release a third solo Spidey movie, right?

 

I do wonder if Sony would be tempted to pull back in order to be able to mix Spidey with their own fledging shared universe, though.

Will be interesting for sure, I wonder if Holland signed the movie deal with Sony or Marvel Studios.

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So Toy Story will open with $120-125M which is still a strong start (and in line with 3's adjusted opening). Only people likely to come away disappointed are those who took that early tracking showing numbers in the same vein as Incredibles 2 completely serious.

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5 minutes ago, Celedhring said:

They are opening a Spiderman ride over at Disneyland Paris, too. I think the ancillary benefits of keeping Spidey popular outweigh other considerations - since as others pointed out Sony wasn't just going to sell them back the character, he's far too valuable. We'll see what happens when Sony and Disney have to come beack to the table to extend the deal.  IIRC it's supposed to run out once they release a third solo Spidey movie, right?

 

I do wonder if Sony would be tempted to pull back in order to be able to mix Spidey with their own fledging shared universe, though.

Eh, if there’s anyone who gained footing in that deal I think it’s Disney.

 

Their popular version of Spider-Man is fully integrated into the MCU.  At best Sony may be able to get Disney to allow Holland to guest appear in their Venom-Verse stuff

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2 minutes ago, Celedhring said:

They are opening a Spiderman ride over at Disneyland Paris, too. I think the ancillary benefits of keeping Spidey popular outweigh other considerations - since as others pointed out Sony wasn't just going to sell them back the character, he's far too valuable. We'll see what happens when Sony and Disney have to come beack to the table to extend the deal.  IIRC it's supposed to run out once they release a third solo Spidey movie, right?

 

I do wonder if Sony would be tempted to pull back in order to be able to mix Spidey with their own fledging shared universe, though.

I think it’s more likely Disney end up making all of the Sony controlled Spidey character movies. 

Sony stand to make even more money that way. 

 

Depends what way you look at it. 

Sony could make their own, with varying degrees of quality and diminishing numbers over a few years. 

Or...they could have Marvel make the movies over a longer period of time but have bigger successes on a film by film basis - cos the MCU ain’t going nowhere. 

 

I’d wager Sony’s Spidey universe lasting a fraction of the time the MCU is going to last with bonkers box office. 

Mixing some of those magnificent Spidey villains in with a ton of our MCU heroes is mouth watering. Beneficial for both studios. 

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2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

So Toy Story will open with $120-125M which is still a strong start (and in line with 3's adjusted opening). Only people likely to come away disappointed are those who took that early tracking showing numbers in the same vein as Incredibles 2 completely serious.

Or you know Disney's own projected estimate which was 140m.

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Never understood where the overinflated projections for TS4 came from so it's nice to see the general public behaving according to my own expectations for once.

 

Now if only the same holds true for TLK live action as well I can start considering a career in box office.

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Just now, DisposedData said:

Or you know Disney's own projected estimate which was 140m.

FWIW Pixar movies have always tended to start a tad lower than expected (yes, even Toy Story 3) but usually make up for that in staying power so an opening slightly lower than expected might be beneficial in the long run (especially with only one movie guaranteed to make $100M+ between the next four weeks). Only one I can think of that truly beat tracking was Incredibles 2 and that was because it was basically a comic book movie.

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21 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

I fail see how Child's Play opening with less than Ma is terrific. 

I think with a major studio it could’ve opened much higher 

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2 hours ago, Menor said:

Saturday looking like 41-43 based on early sales

Nope. Not doing this again. Not going to set myself up for more disappointment.

 

I’m predicting $36M today. Below the first Saturdays of TS3 and SLOP.

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