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Toy Story 4 Weekend Thread | Estimates: Small Soldiers 118, Puppet Master 14.1, Prince of Persia 12.2 (-30%), Blues Brothers 2000 10.8 (-64%), Beverly Hills Chihuahua: The Squeakquel 10.3 (-58%)

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22 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

I fail see how Child's Play opening with less than Ma is terrific. 

I mean it was dirt cheap to make and faces Annabelle in a few days. I think it did about as well as it could have given the circumstances.

 

Meanwhile, Anna is looking to be the most miserable of flops. Has any movie screamed "dumped action bomb" more than that movie did? I saw literally zero marketing for it anywhere.

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2 minutes ago, NYer4Life said:

I’ve been very happy with tracking Aladdin this past month and I think it’s getting every penny it deserves.

 

I think credit to the casting and the addition of Speechless are what really making the movie click with audiences.

 

Mena Massoud’s personality and portrayal is spot on, and Naomi Scott’s performance as Jasmine grabs your attention and is literally show-stopping.

 

It’s hard to topple Robin Williams as the Genie, but the fact that Will Smith didn’t completely mess things up (like originally thought) played very well in his favor.

 

I think Beauty & the Beast’s box-office was mostly attributed to the name/brand/nostalgia alone, even though the casting was off and Emma Watson delivered a very forgettable performance in an iconic role that was too big for her.

 

This time Disney got it right and it shows with Disney reaping the box-office reward.

 

I think the casting ended up working really well, despite all the initial concerns. That said, I think the execution still could have been better and still think that Guy Ritchie remains an odd choice as a director. 

 

The world still felt artificial. That's inevitable to some degree, but, I think there was place for improvement here. The success of the film lays largely with how well suited the source material was for a live action remake. It's timed perfectly for nostalgia purposes. It's such a four quadrant movie. 

 

It's also hard to criticize Disney decisions on this, as it's clearly resonated with audiences. The fact that it's come through word of mouth, rather than a big opening weekend is important. It shows that they're doing well not just because they have all of this IP, but they know how packages it to audiences in ways they're excited about. 

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2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

FWIW Pixar movies have always tended to start a tad lower than expected (yes, even Toy Story 3) but usually make up for that in staying power so an opening slightly lower than expected might be beneficial in the long run (especially with only one movie guaranteed to make $100M+ between the next four weeks). Only one I can think of that truly beat tracking was Incredibles 2 and that was because it was basically a comic book movie.

Toy Story 3 also was considered a disappointment when it didn’t break the OW record and didn’t pass Shrek 2 total, I remember perfectly of people complaining about that. 

 

This time will be the same, people freaking out because it will open around $ 15M lower than disney estimate and trying to make $ 120-125M OW / $ 400M Final seems like a disaster.

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1 minute ago, superduperm said:

Nope. Not doing this again. Not going to set myself up for more disappointment.

 

I’m predicting $36M today. Below the first Saturdays of TS3 and SLOP.

Well then you will be pleasantly surprised I think

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Posted (edited)

People don't seem to understand the word "disappointed". People are being way too black and white about it. 

 

By itself, $120 million is not disappointing for TS4. Nor would it have been for Captain Marvel, or Lion King, or Frozen 2, etc. However, it's the $120 million in conjunction with everything else going on that makes it majorly disappointing. (I am not sure any more if it will quite hit $120 million when you compare to other films).

 

1. Beloved franchise -the MOST beloved in the Pixar universe.

2. Out of this world RT scores and audience scores over 95%. Rave reviews and universally acclaimed already.

3. "Tracking" (if you can even call it that) which was pretty much universally between the $140-$160 million range with a few suggesting over $160 million. (I'm not even talking about the ridiculous $200 million but rather the $165-$170 millions some were saying). And these projections stuck ALL THE WAY up through release day.

4. Decently heavy marketing plan that attached it to several different, diverse products.

 

With all of those factors, especially tied with the projections across the industry, that is where $120 mn or less becomes disappointing.

 

OW numbers are never inside a vacuum so it is silly for people to act like it's a number with no preceding factors. But while $120 million is very disappointing, less than $115 million is somewhat disastrous. But I think that is still highly unlikely no matter the comps with FD and I2. I think a $45-$40-$35 million FSS is probably most likely so we will just stick with very disappointing for now.

 

Edited by jedijake
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4 minutes ago, filmlover said:

 

 

Meanwhile, Anna is looking to be the most miserable of flops. Has any movie screamed "dumped action bomb" more than that movie did? I saw literally zero marketing for it anywhere.

Anna flopped, but it thankfully gave us future Oscar winner Sasha Luss

 

https://www.vulture.com/2019/06/sasha-luss-star-of-luc-besson-anna-movie.html

 

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18 minutes ago, A Panda of Ice and Fire said:

Eh, if there’s anyone who gained footing in that deal I think it’s Disney.

 

Their popular version of Spider-Man is fully integrated into the MCU.  At best Sony may be able to get Disney to allow Holland to guest appear in their Venom-Verse stuff

26 minutes ago, Celedhring said:

I do wonder if Sony would be tempted to pull back in order to be able to mix Spidey with their own fledging shared universe, though.

 

Or, alternatively, try and get even more of the venomverse merged into the MCU.

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Why are people keep keeping saying TS4 will open to 120M or so when its true Friday is 33M and we're in the summer? Using Dory as a comparison, we get around 110 millions, and that movie had a much bigger OD:previews ratio.

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15 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

I think with a major studio it could’ve opened much higher 

I know Chucky is a cult character so I wouldn't ever expect a huge opening but yeah after years of people catching the original on home video and television I have to believe that a Child's Play remake had the potential to open higher. 

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3 minutes ago, Omni said:

Why are people keep keeping saying TS4 will open to 120M or so when its true Friday is 33M and we're in the summer? Using Dory as a comparison, we get around 110 millions, and that movie had a much bigger OD:previews ratio.

The $45M estimate is outdated. Looking more like 47-48.

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3 minutes ago, Omni said:

Why are people keep keeping saying TS4 will open to 120M or so when its true Friday is 33M and we're in the summer? Using Dory as a comparison, we get around 110 millions, and that movie had a much bigger OD:previews ratio.

True Friday was updated with $ 35-36M

 

Also saturday jump appears to be better than expected, so yeah $ 120-125M could happen.

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3 minutes ago, Omni said:

Why are people keep keeping saying TS4 will open to 120M or so when its true Friday is 33M and we're in the summer? Using Dory as a comparison, we get around 110 millions, and that movie had a much bigger OD:previews ratio.

True Friday is 35-36m depending on sources, the 45m estimate is from a few hours ago

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Honestly 39 would be a great number today. TS3 stayed flat on Saturday after excluding midnight showings and Finding Dory also stayed the same excluding Thursday night. I don’t think an 11% increase like Incredibles 2 is reasonable for this...

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1 minute ago, sfran43 said:

 

Yeesh, Toy Story definitely hit this hard.

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7 minutes ago, superduperm said:

Honestly 39 would be a great number today. TS3 stayed flat on Saturday after excluding midnight showings and Finding Dory also stayed the same excluding Thursday night. I don’t think an 11% increase like Incredibles 2 is reasonable for this...

It's looking to jump 20% based on early Sat Pulse

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This is the first Pixar film in the summer in several years without Father’s Day weekend being on opening weekend. So this is a tough comparison. 

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18 minutes ago, jedijake said:

People don't seem to understand the word "disappointed". People are being way too black and white about it. 

 

By itself, $120 million is not disappointing for TS4. Nor would it have been for Captain Marvel, or Lion King, or Frozen 2, etc. However, it's the $120 million in conjunction with everything else going on that makes it majorly disappointing. (I am not sure any more if it will quite hit $120 million when you compare to other films).

 

1. Beloved franchise -the MOST beloved in the Pixar universe.

2. Out of this world RT scores and audience scores over 95%. Rave reviews and universally acclaimed already.

3. "Tracking" (if you can even call it that) which was pretty much universally between the $140-$160 million range with a few suggesting over $160 million. (I'm not even talking about the ridiculous $200 million but rather the $165-$170 millions some were saying). And these projections stuck ALL THE WAY up through release day.

4. Decently heavy marketing plan that attached it to several different, diverse products.

 

With all of those factors, especially tied with the projections across the industry, that is where $120 mn or less becomes disappointing.

 

OW numbers are never inside a vacuum so it is silly for people to act like it's a number with no preceding factors. But while $120 million is very disappointing, less than $115 million is somewhat disastrous. But I think that is still highly unlikely no matter the comps with FD and I2. I think a $45-$40-$35 million FSS is probably most likely so we will just stick with very disappointing for now.

 

Again TS4 was never guaranteed to perform the same as Dory or I2. TS3 open 9 years ago, so those who saw it as kids are teens/adults now. 

 

Dory was arguably in much more higher demand as Nemo was 13 years before it. 

 

I2 benefited from no family film over $200M since Coco and only two over $100M and barely which allowed a family drought as well as the CBM craze.

 

TS4 had three family films in the past 8 weeks, and while Pikachu and Pets 2 underperformed, Aladdin overperformed. 

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