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Toy Story 4 Weekend Thread | Estimates: Small Soldiers 118, Puppet Master 14.1, Prince of Persia 12.2 (-30%), Blues Brothers 2000 10.8 (-64%), Beverly Hills Chihuahua: The Squeakquel 10.3 (-58%)

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i just hope it goes under 116.8 for the weekend.

 

Aladdin opening over Toy story 4, now THAT is funny.

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Posted (edited)

Looks like TS4’s BO is going to be the animated equivalent of Age of Ultron. Money other movies could only dream of making, yet still a disappointment relative to expectations and putting the word “fatigue” on people’s lips.

 

Also, it’s amusing that it’s falling right back in line with what people around here were predicting before the initial presales and the “Holy shit, this movie is actually GOOD?!” reactions.

Edited by TServo2049

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1 minute ago, Avatree said:

i just hope it goes under 116.8 for the weekend.

 

Aladdin opening over Toy story 4, now THAT is funny.

Aladdin’s weekend was $91.5m with an inflated Sunday. 

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8 minutes ago, nguyenkhoi282 said:

It's looking to jump 20% based on early Sat Pulse

And yesterday morning tracking told us this would do better than $36M Friday...

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21 minutes ago, jedijake said:

People don't seem to understand the word "disappointed". People are being way too black and white about it. 

 

By itself, $120 million is not disappointing for TS4. Nor would it have been for Captain Marvel, or Lion King, or Frozen 2, etc. However, it's the $120 million in conjunction with everything else going on that makes it majorly disappointing. (I am not sure any more if it will quite hit $120 million when you compare to other films).

 

1. Beloved franchise -the MOST beloved in the Pixar universe.

2. Out of this world RT scores and audience scores over 95%. Rave reviews and universally acclaimed already.

3. "Tracking" (if you can even call it that) which was pretty much universally between the $140-$160 million range with a few suggesting over $160 million. (I'm not even talking about the ridiculous $200 million but rather the $165-$170 millions some were saying). And these projections stuck ALL THE WAY up through release day.

4. Decently heavy marketing plan that attached it to several different, diverse products.

 

With all of those factors, especially tied with the projections across the industry, that is where $120 mn or less becomes disappointing.

 

OW numbers are never inside a vacuum so it is silly for people to act like it's a number with no preceding factors. But while $120 million is very disappointing, less than $115 million is somewhat disastrous. But I think that is still highly unlikely no matter the comps with FD and I2. I think a $45-$40-$35 million FSS is probably most likely so we will just stick with very disappointing for now.

 

 

1) The most beloved franchise...but TS3 couldn't beat TS2 admissions? 

 

2) Rave reviews...but that's normal for Pixar?

 

3) I didn't follow tracking, so no idea about this. Thought it was 'soft' though, but besides the point because pretty much everyone at KJ and as someone pointed out, the majority of BOT predictions in the Summer Game were for it to drop from TS3.

 

4) This point is moot if people aren't convinced to come by the fact that TS3 ended so well and TS4 by even casual standards seemed tacked on and for money only. No one asked for it. 

 

So disappointing? No. Doing as expected. 

 

BOT is nothing if not consistent in getting over/under hyped in the weeks leading up to OW and having whack takes divorced from reality. 

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Again, TS4 until mid May when tracking inflated us, people were thinking $300M-$370M DOM with a $90M-$100M OW. Yes, I’m not denying it didn’t stack up to tracking but considering the slate of sequels dying this summer and the fact I think there was a lot of people questioning the necessity of TS4, a $120M OW is pretty good.

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120m is under Disney’s own “conservative” estimate of 140m so disappointing no matter how you spin it. Still 120m is at least better than the sub 110m it almost looked like 

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Just now, superduperm said:

And yesterday morning tracking told us this would do better than $36M Friday...

Not really, the first Pulse projection was 36-38M. Today was 41-43M, both great jumps, now let’s just wait if will fall on the low end again or the high end this time.

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4 minutes ago, Avatree said:

So they're projecting 123M, could be a close one whether it makes #3 or falls to #4 opening for an animated film. Shrek 3 opened to 122.5

$47.6M... that would give it about a $118M OW.

 

Hopefully Saturday does better than I think it will.

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1 hour ago, sfran43 said:

 

 

I'm no expert on American 80s horror, but why did this reboot fail compared to the likes of Halloween and Friday the 13th and etc that have all come out in recent years and done really well (at least compared to the early years of this millennium/decade where they were flopping).

 

Then again, this summer has not been kind to most movies anyway. 

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There was once I wonder why disney never market Frozen 2 as the sequel to the biggest animation ever? And i realised they may think TS4 may overtook Frozen before sequel even hit.

 

Now, that concern is largely gone. They can go ahead with the marketing of positioning Frozen 2 as the sequel of 1.28b phenomenon!  

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1 minute ago, titanic2187 said:

There was once I wonder why disney never market Frozen 2 as the sequel to the biggest animation ever? And i realised they may think TS4 may overtook Frozen before sequel even hit.

 

Now, that concern is largely gone. They can go ahead with the marketing of positioning Frozen 2 as the sequel of 1.28b phenomenon!  

Frozen 2 seems to be doing something entirely different from what TS4 did. If TS4 was a tack-on film (but a pretty good fun one), F2 is going deeper, more mythological, more inspired than the first one. People wanted to know more about this mystery and F2 is doing that. It gives the feel that people actually wanted an F2. I guess that was TS4's problem all along?

 

Maybe the lack of a hook for TS4 was what kept it from performing industry expectations (I emphasize "industry"). F2 really seems to have the hook (what is the mystery behind Elsa's powers and are there more powers out there?). Let's hope they learn how to use a hook for TROS.

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8 minutes ago, BK007 said:

 

I'm no expert on American 80s horror, but why did this reboot fail compared to the likes of Halloween and Friday the 13th and etc that have all come out in recent years and done really well (at least compared to the early years of this millennium/decade where they were flopping).

 

Then again, this summer has not been kind to most movies anyway. 

Because Chucky was never anywhere near as big as Jason Freddy and Michael.

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32 minutes ago, Omni said:

Why are people keep keeping saying TS4 will open to 120M or so when its true Friday is 33M and we're in the summer? Using Dory as a comparison, we get around 110 millions, and that movie had a much bigger OD:previews ratio.

 

27 minutes ago, superduperm said:

Honestly 39 would be a great number today. TS3 stayed flat on Saturday after excluding midnight showings and Finding Dory also stayed the same excluding Thursday night. I don’t think an 11% increase like Incredibles 2 is reasonable for this...

Increase will be almost certainly better than I2, presales showing a better ratio today

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Just now, BK007 said:

 

I'm no expert on American 80s horror, but why did this reboot fail compared to the likes of Halloween and Friday the 13th and etc that have all come out in recent years and done really well (at least compared to the early years of this millennium/decade where they were flopping).

 

Then again, this summer has not been kind to most movies anyway. 

What do you mean fail?

Its a small film, wasn't expected to make much so didn't spend much, I have no idea what they spent on marketing in $ but it was not a major release like Halloween.

ALso yes they are both old horror films, but that doesn't mean they are comparable... Halloween is a much bigger brand than Child's Play. Like I said a few pages back, the last Chucky movie was straight to DVD. This is a really small franchise.

The last Childs Play in theaters opened to 8 million dollars.

 

Halloween on the other hand is one of cornerpieces of modern horror. It didn't quite invent the genre but it is the king. Child's Play owes it a lot.

I think its a film a lot of people are aware of but not many actually want to watch.

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After ranking, turns out I regard TS4 as the third worst Pixar, who would have figured?

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