Toy Story 4 Weekend Thread | Estimates: Small Soldiers 118, Puppet Master 14.1, Prince of Persia 12.2 (-30%), Blues Brothers 2000 10.8 (-64%), Beverly Hills Chihuahua: The Squeakquel 10.3 (-58%)

[MovieMan89]

Just now, UserHN said:

You can visit the tracking thread. They see a good Sat increase. They predict 41-43 based on Pulse tracking.

Hopefully. We also had tracking that suggested this should be doing at least 140 this weekend, so...

[UserHN]

Just now, MovieMan89 said:

Hopefully. We also had tracking that suggested this should be doing at least 140 this weekend, so...

They're pretty accurate with their early numbers yesterday. They predicted 36-38. Official Fri estimate is 35.4, so they're not that far off.

[John Marston]

5 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Speaking of sequels underperforming, does anyone else have a sneaking suspicion Far From Home may be next?

Wel apparently presales are nothing amazing 

[LawrenceBrolivier]

I think a large part of the problem when it comes to underperformances... such as they are... is that the trackers have gone on record multiple times now to explain that they still don't really have the data they need to reliably predict things north of 120mil. The super-blockbuster era we're in now is like the days of the home run derbys during the steroid era of baseball... people couldn't predict what would happen one season to the next, or who would crush 50 homers in a season. They just weren't prepared for everyone to suddenly become Mickey Mantle... 

 

That's kind of what's happening a lot lately. These trackers are good, and they're doing good work, but they've admitted multiple times now their guesses really ARE just.... guesses past a certain point. 

Toy Story 4 will have an OW north of 120mil, and that's considered an underperformance? I don't disagree with the assessment really... but its also a very weird place to be in, isn't it? Where the yardstick for success isn't profit vs. budget but profit vs tracking predictions. 

[Krissykins]

Hmm I think Gitesh is always a bit too optimistic (with selective titles of course)

 

No mention that all of the trades (THR, Deadline, Variety) and the prediction websites (box office, BOM) all had it pegged higher.

 

Disney themselves expected $140m. 

[raulbalarezo]

1 hour ago, Avatree said:

Zoe saldana is a good example because I think she is smoking hot in guardians of the galaxy but i get nothing when shes not painted green.

 

Halle berry we've covered and i just googled the others you named and none of them are hot.

 

What about Rihanna ?

[raulbalarezo]

Can TS4 make $400M Dom with that opening ? 🤔

Edited June 22, 2019 by raulbalarezo

[Valonqar]

it's not an under-performance realistically but it is relative to expectations. if your tracking says 140- 150M and you finish with 120M-ish, that's disappointing. However, this opening still beats TS3 (unadjusted I assume) so it is fine. it's just that tracking muted the success. 

Edited June 22, 2019 by Valonqar

[MovieMan89]

BOM is even downplaying the number as underwhelming in their Sat writeup. It's not any kind of bad performance, but it is pretty disappointing. Especially odd for Disney themselves to be that far off in their forecast since they are typically the king of lowballing. 

Edited June 22, 2019 by MovieMan89

[Valonqar]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

BOM is even downplaying the number as underwhelming in their Sat writeup. It's not any kind of bad performance, but it is pretty disappointing. Especially odd for Disney themselves to be that far off in their forecast since they are typically the king of lowballing. 

i bet they thought 140M was lowballing. oh well. even the mightiest can miscalculate. 

[Legion Again]

19 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Speaking of sequels underperforming, does anyone else have a sneaking suspicion Far From Home may be next?

It would only make sense, after Endgame underperformed so bad...

[MovieMan89]

4 minutes ago, raulbalarezo said:

Can TS4 make $400M Dom with that opening ? 🤔

If it actually gets to 120, it should stand a decent shot. Competition isn't too bad until TLK, 3.3x shouldn't be hard. But who knows with how animation multis have been this year. 

[MovieMan89]

FFH could breakout huge to 500+ and amazingly still not be in the heights of Raimiman 1 or 2. Crazy how far the franchise fell really. 

[lorddemaxus]

3 hours ago, Avatree said:

 

disgusting. If you choose to post images of legs please use nice images of attractive people.

 

Avatree has a weird thing against brown and black people. He also said Rosie Perez and Jurnee Smollett Bell are both not attractive because they are brown in the BOP thread.

Edited June 22, 2019 by lorddemaxus

[lorddemaxus]

23 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Speaking of sequels underperforming, does anyone else have a sneaking suspicion Far From Home may be next?

I think it is going to underperform relative to the expectations of this sub but still end up becoming the highest grossing Spider-man movie yet (I'm talking WW). It really depends on how much TLK explodes.

[CJohn]

24 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Speaking of sequels underperforming, does anyone else have a sneaking suspicion Far From Home may be next?

The MCU is still untouchable. It will do 350M in its sleep.

[ThomasNicole]

6 minutes ago, raulbalarezo said:

Can TS4 make $400M Dom with that opening ? 🤔

Yes, it will need around 3.2 - 3.3x to reach the milestone.

 

Dory make 3.6x and I2 make 3.4x, so we can expect TS4 to be around that multiplier.

[Pure Spirit]

Mods in this thread like

 

[Zakiyyah6]

Why is this thread being clogged up with talk about some dude's bigoted dick? Can you guys talk about that elsewhere?

[MovieMan89]

1 minute ago, ThomasNicole said:

Yes, it will need around 3.2 - 3.3x to reach the milestone.

 

Dory make 3.6x and I2 make 3.4x, so we can expect TS4 to be around that multiplier.

Hopefully, but something weird has been up with animated multis this year. They went from healthy norms of 3.3-3.6x or so last year to sub 3x as soon as this year started. And some that even had good reception too, like Dragon 3.