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Toy Story 4 Weekend Thread | Estimates: Small Soldiers 118, Puppet Master 14.1, Prince of Persia 12.2 (-30%), Blues Brothers 2000 10.8 (-64%), Beverly Hills Chihuahua: The Squeakquel 10.3 (-58%)

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2 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

IMO 

TS 4 39

Aladdin 5

CP 4.3

MIBI 4.2

SLoP 2 3.8

Thank you Charlie! How about Dark Phoenix, Endgame and John Wick? 

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Previews: 12M

True Friday: 35.4M

Saturday: 40M (+13%)

Sunday: 32M (-20%)

TOTAL: 119.4M

 

So maybe around 118-120M for the weekend, depending on the Sunday drop?

 

Pixar's lowest multiplier for a 90+% RT rated film is Incredibles 2's 3.33 multiplier - which would take Toy Story 4 to ~400M. I expect the multiplier to be at least somewhat higher though, as Incredibles 2 was by far Pixar's highest opening gross (and highest preview gross), which will naturally create a lower multiplier. A Finding Dory multiplier (3.60) takes it to ~430M. The same multiplier as Toy Story 3 takes it to almost 450M, but I'm not sure we can expect the same multiplier as the third instalment (which opened in 2010 with much smaller previews).

 

I think 400M+ is looking good.


Peace,

Mike

 

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Posted (edited)
22 minutes ago, RtheEnd said:

TS4 sat going to stick with 40m atm ,late afternoon Fri had 45-46.5 but stuck with 45 even into eve :)

 

8 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

IMO 

TS 4 39

tenor.gif

Edited by DAR
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9 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

IMO 

TS 4 39

Aladdin 5

CP 4.3

MIBI 4.2

SLoP 2 3.8

Damn. Seems a little low for everything.

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Which one to believe? Lol

 

Rth:

 

12

33

40

30 (-25%)

= 115

 

Charlie:

 

12

35

39

29 (-25%)

= 115

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14 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

IMO 

TS 4 39

Aladdin 5

CP 4.3

MIBI 4.2

SLoP 2 3.8

Aladdin only increased by 25%? 😐

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, UserHN said:

Aladdin only increased by 25%? 😐

This wouldn't be unusual, I don't think, given this time of year and Aladdin's healthy Friday increase. Last weekend Aladdin increased 56.4% on Friday and 38% on Saturday. This weekend it increased 63.6% on Friday, and with a 25% increase on Saturday, it's looking at probably only ~25% decrease overall from last weekend, its best weekend drop so far (and last weekend's gross was inflated by a muted Sunday drop thanks to Father's Day, too).


Peace,

Mike

Edited by MikeQ
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1 hour ago, La Binoche said:

TS4 kinda sucked, didnt it? Not surprised it's underperforming. 

 

How is it under performing?

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Posted (edited)

 

5 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

How is it under performing?

I think he means in terms of tracking, trades and BOM/box office predictions. And Disney expectations ($140m). 

 

Variety $140m

THR $140-160m

Disney: $140m

BOM: $165m

BoxOffice: $145m 

Deadine $140-200m

Edited by Krissykins
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4 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

How is it under performing?

It's doing about 20 mil less than the lowest industry projections and Disney's own projections (which are usually lowballs). That's an underperformance. Not to the sort of degree something like Pikachu but still an underperformance.

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13 minutes ago, UserHN said:

Aladdin only increased by 25%? 😐

Typical behavior for May Disney holdover on a big June Pixar OW. Friday gets more double feature juice.

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9 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

JW 3: 1.7

Endgame: 0.85

Fantastic for both. 

 

JW with 50% jump while EG with 63.5%

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Maybe it’s OW is underperforming.  But at this point the money it makes is just gravy

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Posted (edited)

Toy Story 4's OW performance probably would reflect what type of performance we could expect if they ever do a Finding Nemo 3 or Incredibles 3.

Edited by Darth Lehnsherr

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You mean still make money?

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Just now, DAR said:

You mean still make money?

Yep exactly just not have a massive increase compared to its predecessor's OW.

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