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That One Guy

Toy Story 4 Weekend Thread | Estimates: Small Soldiers 118, Puppet Master 14.1, Prince of Persia 12.2 (-30%), Blues Brothers 2000 10.8 (-64%), Beverly Hills Chihuahua: The Squeakquel 10.3 (-58%)

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2 minutes ago, John Marston said:

What’s worse is that it might not even beat Dreck the Turd for second place!

Are you and CJohn one and the same? Aside from both having 'John' in your usernames, you also both have the same thoughts.

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5 minutes ago, John Marston said:

What’s worse is that it might not even beat Dreck the Turd for second place!

As long as it doesn't have Shrek The Third's legs, it will be fine.

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10 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

BOM predicted $165m. 

BO predicted $149m. 

Variety said $140m+ 

THR said “is pegged to debut in the $150-200m range” yesterday (20th June) 

People need to accept that 120M OW is an underperformance. It is barely outopening TS3 lmao.

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Just now, CJohn said:

People need to accept that 120M OW is an underperformance. It is barely outopening TS3 lmao.

Absolutely. Opening lower than all trade predictions is bad. End of discussion 

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Man, I thought y'all didn't allow trolls.

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I love how Shrek 3 is always used when no one considers why it opened as big as it did. Fricking Shrek 2 was bigger than any Pixar film ever?? 

 

The 12m is great, specially for those of us who kept realities in check. 

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1 minute ago, CJohn said:

People need to accept that 120M OW is an underperformance. It is barely outopening TS3 lmao.

And Toy Story 3 legs (not impossible given the rest of the summer looks barren in terms of direct competition aside from Spider-Man and The Lion King) would put it between $450-500M total. What's your point?

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I'm gonna wait until the weekend number comes in before shifting expectations. I never really expected anything beyond Dory type numbers OW DOM. Not at all convinced that still can't happen.

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Posted (edited)

HTTYD3 + LEGO2 + SLOP2 combined ow will be beat by TS4.

 

With 125-130 ow, 3.05-3.2x will give it 400 dom, double it's 200 prod budget (high-end guess).

SLOP2 is looking at <1.75x it's much smaller 80m prod budget dom.

 

 

 

Edited by a2k

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6 minutes ago, CJohn said:

People need to accept that 120M OW is an underperformance. It is barely outopening TS3 lmao.

 

I honestly agree with you. But can we at least wait until tonight before we call $120M OW a done-deal? $12M previews is still 30% higher than Finding Dory’s previews.

 

If the full OD figure comes in below $50M than we can hit the panic button. For now I still think FD’s OW is the floor. I don’t see this being as frontloaded as I2.

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To fair Toy Story 3 was kind of a disappointment as well. Despite heavily being boosted by 3D it barely outgrossed Transformers 2. Should easily have been a 600m grosser like Jurassic World/Incredibles 2

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9 minutes ago, ChipMunky said:

Man, I thought y'all didn't allow trolls.

Yeah. I can already spot 2 consistent trolls with almost the same name here.

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Why people are now pretending you can make 600m dom that easily ?

Disney spoiled you way too much in recent years, BOT.

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Where them Anna numbers at?

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5 minutes ago, a2k said:

HTTYD3 + LEGO2 + SLOP2 combined ow will be beat by TS4.

 

With 125-130 ow, 3.05-3.2x will give it 400 dom, double it's 200 prod budget (high-end guess).

SLOP2 is looking at <1.75x it's much smaller 80m prod budget dom.

 

 

 

1.75x80 would be only 140m for SLOP2

I think it's going higher than this

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, John Marston said:

To fair Toy Story 3 was kind of a disappointment as well. Despite heavily being boosted by 3D it barely outgrossed Transformers 2. Should easily have been a 600m grosser like Jurassic World/Incredibles 2

And what is your reasoning for that? All the Toy Stories so far have grossed in a range from 395-480m adjusted, increasing by 40-50m between sequels. Seems fairly consistent, though I will say that this is very unlikely to rise above Toy Story 3's adjusted number at this point.

Edited by Jayhawk

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3 minutes ago, John Marston said:

To fair Toy Story 3 was kind of a disappointment as well. Despite heavily being boosted by 3D it barely outgrossed Transformers 2. Should easily have been a 600m grosser like Jurassic World/Incredibles 2

Okay this is the first post by you where I’m starting to think you’re joking.

 

JW/I2 came out in 2015 and 2018. Before Avengers in 2012 $600M was unheard of outside of James Cameron films. Even The Dark Knight didn’t finish within shouting distance of it lol

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1 minute ago, Jayhawk said:

And what is your reasoning for that? All the Toy Stories so far have grossed in a range from 395-480m adjusted, increasing by 40-50 between sequels. Seems fairly consistent, though I will say that this is very unlikely to rise above Toy Story 3's adjusted number at this point.

Toy Story 3 apparently made 80% of its gross in 3D. Take that out and it sold less tickets than TS2

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Minus the presales part skewing expectations, opening at 120-125 million or whatever would have been higher than my summer game prediction tbh

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