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That One Girl

Toy Story 4 Weekend Thread | Estimates: Small Soldiers 118, Puppet Master 14.1, Prince of Persia 12.2 (-30%), Blues Brothers 2000 10.8 (-64%), Beverly Hills Chihuahua: The Squeakquel 10.3 (-58%)

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15 minutes ago, UserHN said:

Lol. This is like an otherworldly take. Aladdin will end up near a billion, superb overperformance. TS4 will gross near Aladdin. Wick 3 is also an overperformer. And although SLOP2 fell heavily from the 1st one, a 400M-500M gross will still make profit because of its small 80M budget.

I agree if we're talking about expectations.  But, and I will continue to die on this hill even if I'm alone, I think these stellar legs showed that Disney badly botched the rollout of Aladdin, starting way back in last year's Cinema Con.

 

Who the hell knows what Aladdin would be doing if Disney had better managed the rollout.  Maybe, perhaps even probably, Aladdin is clawing back 90% of what it 'could' have gotten if things had done better.  I suppose we'll never know.  At the same time the legs of Aladdin is currently having off a 3 day holiday weekend is showing that maybe a 130/400 or 140/380 wasn't impossible if the buzz had been better managed.

 

Don't get me wrong.  I'm sure Disney is ecstatic with how it's performing.  I'm just saying that maybe it could have done even more if it weren't for the months of really tepid to outright bad buzz.

 

NB:  Note the numbers I'm giving above, BTW.  I'm not suggesting a BatB run was ever in the cards.  But Jungle Book adj of around 375 or so?   Might have been possible given the reception this is currently getting with the GA.

 

PS to the NB:  Of course, if Aladdin had had heightened expectation, maybe it would have been received differently if it hadn't met heightened expectations.  Maybe if people 'expected' more out of a good-to-great buzzy Aladdin it wouldn't have quite the same level of GA satisfaction.

 

A great box office 'What If' to ponder if there ever was one.  

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5 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

It's doing about 20 mil less than the lowest industry projections and Disney's own projections (which are usually lowballs). That's an underperformance. Not to the sort of degree something like Pikachu but still an underperformance.

it's not an under performance at all whatsoever. It's the highest opening film in the series and just because trade magazines had a number they projected it at that doesn't mean shit. They don't know anything more about the movie in terms of tracking than we do. You can put some arbitrary number on it but that doesn't mean it was ever going to open that high.

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1 hour ago, Porthos said:

Who the hell knows what Aladdin would be doing if Disney had better managed the rollout.  Maybe, perhaps even probably, Aladdin is clawing back 90% of what it 'could' have gotten if things had done better.  I suppose we'll never know.  At the same time the legs of Aladdin is currently having off a 3 day holiday weekend is showing that maybe a 130/400 or 140/380 wasn't impossible if the buzz had been better managed.

 

 

I think TLK being released 2 months later is what really put a cap on how high can Aladdin open. If those movies had their marketing roll out almost simultaneous it's understandable that TLK would always overshadow it because it's TLK. But if TLK was coming out the next year I think Aladdin could have opened high enough to pass 400m/1b with ease even with the continuous bad buzz the project had from the start.

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8 hours ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

From OS thread.

 

So $38mn Through Friday. In my experience, that would be 14 and 24 on Thurs and Friday respectively.

I am expecting 45-48 on Saturday and 40-42mn Approx Sunday. That will go for $125mn weekend.

 

Its summer and wom is great, can expect legs to hit 3.5x or higher as most markets are leggy ones. Thats bodes to $435mn or higher.

 

There's still Italy, France, Germany, Netherlands and Japan left. TS3 did $210mn in these. Expecting atleast $175mn from this, that's reasonable?

 

That will give around $600mn plus with scope of going to $650mn.

 

Domestic, with I2 legs from pure FSS, which faced Fallen Kingdom in week 2, will do $411mn, that's pretty much floor.

 

I don't think billion dollar is done yet. It still can get there.

Don't really know TS3 did 82.6m in the four European countries and 126.7m in Japan adjusting those numbers with current ER: ~71-72m in Europe and $98-100m in Japan so adjusted it would be $169-$172m for TS3 in those markets. (And increases in ticket prices won't matter much in Japan if there will be any at all and in Europe, they will be too small as movies have a higher 2d share now). Most importantly I have doubts about Japan being able to repeat something like that for TS4 so I would go lower about those countries. But maybe they surprise and it will open good and have good legs in these markets. 

Also, TS4 is releasing in late August and not early October in Germany and I have no idea why, why do they give up Unity Day and fall holidays and go for the end of summer holidays in southern Germany (the rest starts school earlier) not a good time to release a movie. In Germany October to March tend to be stronger than April to September.

So overall 170m might be a good guess but I wouldn't say that it certainly will easily get past that.

 

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5 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

Don't really know TS3 did 82.6m in the four European countries and 126.7m in Japan adjusting those numbers with current ER: ~71-72m in Europe and $98-100m in Japan so adjusted it would be $169-$172m for TS3 in those markets. (And increases in ticket prices won't matter much in Japan if there will be any at all and in Europe, they will be too small as movies have a higher 2d share now). Most importantly I have doubts about Japan being able to repeat something like that for TS4 so I would go lower about those countries. But maybe they surprise and it will open good and have good legs in these markets. 

Also, TS4 is releasing in late August and not early October in Germany and I have no idea why, why do they give up Unity Day and fall holidays and go for the end of summer holidays in southern Germany (the rest starts school earlier) not a good time to release a movie. In Germany October to March tend to be stronger than April to September.

So overall 170m might be a good guess but I wouldn't say that it certainly will easily get past that.

 

 i think his point was that 1 bill is still very much in play

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Had I2 not done 180+ folks wouldn't have gotten bezerk about TS4 projections. SLOP2's and TS4's promos were both unexciting imo. TS has a different pedigree and loyalty though. Dory too was the first sequel to Nemo opposed to third sequel that TS4 is. It's not like fans haven't been satiated. TS3 wrapped up the franchise perfectly and TS4 was gonna be a hard sell.

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1 minute ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:

If it's gonna get to $1 Billion it'll be a slow crawl towards it. Would also probably need DOM to reach at least $400M DOM which is possible but with FFH and especially TLK looming might be difficult. 

we, will see

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1 hour ago, baumer said:

it's not an under performance at all whatsoever. It's the highest opening film in the series and just because trade magazines had a number they projected it at that doesn't mean shit. They don't know anything more about the movie in terms of tracking than we do. You can put some arbitrary number on it but that doesn't mean it was ever going to open that high.

Except I wasn't talking about just trades. I was also talking about Disney. They predicted 140 mil. TS4 won't reach that. That is an underperformance even if it is biggest opening in the franchise. Plus with this opening, it also means that it might not beat TS3's final gross while a 140 mil OW likely would have so there is a difference.

Edited by lorddemaxus
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1 minute ago, lorddemaxus said:

Except I wasn't talking about just trades. I was talking about Disney. They predicted 140 mil. TS4 won't reach that. That is an underperformance even if it is biggest opening in the franchise. Plus with this opening, it also means that it might not beat TS3's final gross while a 140 mil OW likely would have so there is a difference.

just because a studio had a number they projected it at that doesn't mean shit. They don't know anything more about the movie in terms of tracking than we do. You can put some arbitrary number on it but that doesn't mean it was ever going to open that high.

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19 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Except I wasn't talking about just trades. I was also talking about Disney. They predicted 140 mil. TS4 won't reach that. That is an underperformance even if it is biggest opening in the franchise. Plus with this opening, it also means that it might not beat TS3's final gross while a 140 mil OW likely would have so there is a difference.

But why does it need to beat toy Story 3? That was the end of the series. Now 9 years later you've got another one coming out. And I don't care what Disney was predicting for it. They're just predictions. The film's going to more than likely make four hundred million dollars and come very close to a billion. It is nowhere near and under performance.

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2 minutes ago, baumer said:

But why does it need to beat toy Story 3? That was the end of the series. Now 9 years later you've got another one coming out. And I don't care what Disney was predicting for it. They're just predictions. The film's going to more than likely make four hundred million dollars and come very close to a billion. It is nowhere near and under performance.

agreed, 950-1bill +, is nothing to sneeze at, especially when most people thought that ts4 would make 1,1 bill at tbest

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17 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

just because a studio had a number they projected it at that doesn't mean shit. They don't know anything more about the movie in terms of tracking than we do. You can put some arbitrary number on it but that doesn't mean it was ever going to open that high.

studios don't put arbitrary numbers. there are expectations. And Disney is notorious for lowballing, so they must have been very confident in over 140M if they threw that number around as their own guesstimate. So while TS4 is no disappointment relative to budget and previous TS openings, it is relative to what Disney expected. otherwise they would peg it for 90-100M OW and act like it exceeded most optimistic expectations. They laughably lowballed some recent and not so recent OW's so that they would get "expectations shattered" headlines. So you bet they expected TS4 to blow past 140M. 

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Just now, Valonqar said:

studios don't put arbitrary numbers. there are expectations. And Disney is notorious for lowballing, so they must have been very confident in over 140M if they threw that number around as their own guesstimate. So while TS4 is no disappointment relative to budget and previous TS openings, it is relative to what Disney expected. otherwise they would peg it for 90-100M OW and act like it exceeded most optimistic expectations. They laughably lowballed some recent and not so recent OW's so that they would get "expectations shattered" headlines. So you bet they expected TS4 to blow past 140M. 

again ow wont matter, from the moment that ts4 will end at around 1 bill

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