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Toy Story 4 Weekend Thread | Estimates: Small Soldiers 118, Puppet Master 14.1, Prince of Persia 12.2 (-30%), Blues Brothers 2000 10.8 (-64%), Beverly Hills Chihuahua: The Squeakquel 10.3 (-58%)

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6 minutes ago, baumer said:

And I don't care what Disney was predicting for it. They're just predictions. The film's going to more than likely make four hundred million dollars and come very close to a billion. It is nowhere near and under performance.

They’re talking strictly opening weekend. It missed tracking, studio expectations and industry predictions. 

 

I don’t think people are saying it’s a flop in any way whatsoever. But it missed all expectations, on opening weekend. 

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I think we can say that since everybody in the industry seemed to think TS4 would open to $140m+, this opening weekend is an underperformance. However, that doesn't mean that the movie is a flop or a disappointment because that $140m is just one random mark that these people set for this movie to be a success for them when in reality opening with $120m will also make it a big success.

Do you actually think Disney is gonna be disappointed with this start? Of course, they would've loved for TS4 to crush records, they always want every movie to make as much as it possibly can. But they also know that that is wishful thinking and that sometimes movies are gonna miss expectations. But again, missing expectations and flopping/underperforming are two very different things.

 

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Posted (edited)
30 minutes ago, baumer said:
 
 
 
2
23 minutes ago, baumer said:

But why does it need to beat toy Story 3? That was the end of the series. Now 9 years later you've got another one coming out. And I don't care what Disney was predicting for it. They're just predictions. The film's going to more than likely make four hundred million dollars and come very close to a billion. It is nowhere near and under performance.

I really didn't want to give the official definition of an underperformance but here you go (from dictionary.com):

 

Quote

to perform less well than (another of its kind, a general average, etc.) or less well than expected

And from Merriam webster:

 

Quote

to fail to do as well as expected

 

I don't care that you don't care what Disney predicted but the opening weekend is an underperformance because it opened to less than expectations. If you want to go against the actual definition because you liked the movie, be my guest. Also, sure coming close to 400 mil is good but a 140 mil OW prediction implies Disney expected a higher finish than just that. I have no clue why you are taking this so badly tbh. I said it underperformed, not that it flopped.

Edited by lorddemaxus
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Are people really trying to say that missing projections by every trade and the studio doesn't qualify as an underperformance? :wintf:

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Another sort of crappy weekend to follow.

 

TS4 underperformed relative to Disney and industry expectations (and no that doesn't mean it's a failure or anything - it's going to probably make at least 900M when all is said and done).

 

Aladdin's number is just amazing. It's going to hit 300M before the end of next weekend. I thought best case scenario for that a couple of weeks ago was the end of July 4th weekend.

 

Everything else is meh to horrible.

SLOP2 really got taken out by TS4. It's going to have to work hard to do anything over 150M.

CP is likely just going to hold off Aladdin for second. 

MIB takes a huge drop - though not as bad as XDP thankfully.

 

On TS4. My family hasn't seen it. Didn't have any rush to see it this weekend, but will see it over the next couple of weeks - probably July 4th week. I don't think the rush factor was that high. It's interesting to go back to the TS4 thread on this site. As recently as late march there are alot of comments along the lines of 'I don't see the reason for this film' and alot of 100M predictions for opening week. There is a linked Variety article from May 30th that has the opening anywhere from 100-150 million - looks like it is going to hit right around the midpoint of that,

 

It feels like expectations - even by Disney, just got out of hand. There have only been 13 opening weekends over the last 2 1/2 years (and 15 weekends total with a 100M film - AE and IW's second weeks). So on average there is a 100M+ opener about every 10 weeks. It's a really good opening, but below expectations.

 

 

 

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Just because something is expected to do something doesn't mean that it will. why would they expect this movie to open at 140 million when toy Story 3 didn't even come close to that? Is it solely based on The Incredibles? Then the the problem is not the opening weekend it's that people thought and expected it to do unrealistic numbers. I am about as detached from Pixar as possibly can be and there's no way I would have thought this would open at 140 million. There's just simply no reason for it to do it.

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TS4 is a masive underperformer, no question about that. People seriously calling it a flop are insane tho.

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8 hours ago, Krissykins said:

 

Deadine $140-200m

Wtf???? Lol

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I think we’re talking passed each other. Sure, based on expectations TS4 underperformed. But the expectations were not realistic based on the movie’s pedigree. Had it not been for I2, Finding Dory would have been the measuring stick for a super successful opening. I2 was an anomaly for animated films. That is why Deadline and the other trades should have been more careful in evaluating and forecasting TS4. A more historical look at the data/genre should have led them to temper their expectations. On its own, opening at around 115-120 is very good.

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5 hours ago, The GOAT said:

Seems like every movie this summer is flopping except for Rocketman, which is expected bc it's the best wide release film of the year.

 

Don’t disrespect Booksmart like that

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If expectations were that high, then they were unrealistic. 

 

There's really no reason for it to make $140m+. What were the arguments for it? Because "The Incredibles" isn't a valid one.

 

And really, before the reviews, how many people were actually excited for this besides Disney happy clapper fans? 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Ms Lady Hawk said:

I think we’re talking passed each other. Sure, based on expectations TS4 underperformed. But the expectations were not realistic based on the movie’s pedigree. Had it not been for I2, Finding Dory would have been the measuring stick for a super successful opening. I2 was an anomaly for animated films. That is why Deadline and the other trades should have been more careful in evaluating and forecasting TS4. A more historical look at the data/genre should have led them to temper their expectations. On its own, opening at around 115-120 is very good.

They should have based it on the past grosses of TS movies. This one will have the highest OW in the franchise but still being sneered at by some here. Unbelievable. Lol. Anyway, I think one reason why it will make 115 and not 130+ is because of the rush factor. Like some on here said, they will watch it but they don't find the urgency to watch it OW. Hoping for strong legs like Aladdin.

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It's big disappointment. let's face it. It was expected to do 160-200. 100-110 is just bad.

 

I don't get it. The film has amazing reviews. Everyone says its great. Why people don't watch good movies? The world is not in good place right now.

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Just now, Damianport1 said:

It's big disappointment. let's face it. It was expected to do 160-200. 100-110 is just bad.

 

I don't get it. The film has amazing reviews. Everyone says its great. Why people don't watch good movies? The world is not in good place right now.

Because nobody asked for it, there’s only so many times you can trick an audience into seeing something they don’t really care for 

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everyone's saving their money for brahms. the boy 2 is the only toy story i'm interested in this year.

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31 minutes ago, CJohn said:

TS4 is a masive underperformer, no question about that. People seriously calling it a flop are insane tho.

i am sure disney will cry with their 900-1bill , but i guess thats life

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2 minutes ago, Damianport1 said:

It's big disappointment. let's face it. It was expected to do 160-200. 100-110 is just bad.

 

I don't get it. The film has amazing reviews. Everyone says its great. Why people don't watch good movies? The world is not in good place right now.

.... we dont even know what the fucking total will be , how around 1 bill is a fucking dissapointment, studios would kill to have dissapointments like this

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3 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

everyone's saving their money for brahms. the boy 2 is the only toy story i'm interested in this year.

https://twitt

er.com/jupin/status/1141179250067873793

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the fact that we dont even know how it will end up other than a range of around 400 + dom , and 950-1bill, and people still bitching about it, like what ? let me ask you this question, how many of you thought that ts4 would make 1.3 bill ? close to zero, how many thought, that it would make 1,2 ? close to zero, the expectations were 900-1.1 bill from most people, the difference was that some believed, higher dom, and lesser os, while it will be the other way around, so ts4, will make withing the expected range, but with a different split, , but people keep saying, i mean wtf....

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1 hour ago, lorddemaxus said:

Except I wasn't talking about just trades. I was also talking about Disney. They predicted 140 mil. TS4 won't reach that. That is an underperformance even if it is biggest opening in the franchise. Plus with this opening, it also means that it might not beat TS3's final gross while a 140 mil OW likely would have so there is a difference.

I think we’re all forgetting just how much of a shock it was when Toy Story 3 stormed past $400 million. 

It was way more money and attendance than we’d seen for an animated film since Shrek 2. 

 

Toy Story 4, a few months back, had most on here proclaiming $350 million as the ceiling. Just because it’s had a rapturous reception, that doesn’t mean there’s the same kind of demand as there was for the apparent ending that TS3 was. 

 

The movie is doing really well. 

I2 and FD were massively anticipated sequels to beloved films, with the former also being a superhero film - bringing out a key demograph. 

 

I think we need to look at our expectations. This is going to end up being one of Pixar’s most successful films and it’s the fourth one in the franchise. 

 

$120 million OW for an animated film with the whole summer left to play is by no means a disappointment.  It’s an excellent start and we’ll see where it heads in the coming weeks.  

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